Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The unfair competitive advantage brought by insider information has always been a controversial focus in prediction markets like Polymarket.
Previously, there was a significant shift in the odds of the related event on Polymarket concerning the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro (see "When War is Settled Before News: How Prediction Markets 'Price' Maduro's Capture Operation Six Days Early"). If the suspected insider actions at that time could be justified by the fluctuations of the "pizza index," then this time, there are insiders on Polymarket, and it can be said that it has been conclusively proven.
Israeli Military Internal Investigation
On February 12, Israel's largest English newspaper, The Jerusalem Post, reported that the Tel Aviv District Court on Monday filed charges against an Israeli civilian and a member of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reserves, accusing them of profiting from betting on Polymarket using confidential military information. The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe this behavior poses a serious operational security risk during wartime.
According to a statement authorized by the prosecution, the suspects were arrested in a joint operation conducted by the Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet), a security agency under the Ministry of Defense, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reserve soldiers are using the confidential information they access in military duties to place bets on the timing of military operations for profit.
After the investigation, the prosecution stated that they have obtained evidence of misconduct involving the civilian and the reserve soldier, prompting them to file charges of "serious security crimes," as well as bribery and obstruction of justice against the two. Meanwhile, the prosecution requested the court to extend the detention period of the suspects until the conclusion of the case.
In addition to the information already disclosed, more details of the case remain legally restricted, including the identities of the defendants, the specific betting content, and the flow of the alleged information.
Tracking the Actions of Insiders
While we cannot ascertain the true identity and account information of the insider, the X community had already discovered an account on Polymarket exhibiting obvious abnormal behavior. The Jerusalem Post also attached a screenshot of the account's profits in their report.
As shown in the above image, the user named Rundeep joined Polymarket in June 2025 and subsequently achieved a 100% win rate in six prediction markets concerning Israeli military actions, while five of those bets were made when the probabilities were below 50%, ultimately profiting over $150,000.
It is worth mentioning that Odaily Planet Daily found that apart from this "six wins out of six" scenario on Polymarket, Rundeep had one instance of failure, but this failed prediction event was not directly related to Israel, rather it was about "whether the U.S. military will take action against Iran before Saturday (June 21, 2025)" … It seems that the intelligence from allies is still somewhat unreliable.
The Real Effects of Prediction Markets, a Thought-Provoking Fear
Due to Polymarket's open and unlicensed nature, anyone can freely place bets on the platform, objectively providing a more convenient "information monetization" channel for those with informational advantages — under the drive of profit, individuals possessing unequal information advantages find it hard to resist temptation, and thus it is inevitable that insiders will cash in.
If such occurrences happen in conventional areas like sports or entertainment, the impact may still be somewhat controllable, but when similar events occur in sensitive fields such as politics or even war, it is truly difficult to imagine what terrifying consequences such insider betting events may bring.
For instance, if opposing forces guessed the direction of an Israeli operation in advance through insider betting on Polymarket, would this have a significant impact on the subsequent evolution of events? While many might find it hard to empathize with Israel, the truth is that such events could happen to any entity.
In traditional gambling, political elections, legislative outcomes, wars, and other public affairs are typically subject to clear restrictions, and whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory constraints in the future may lead to a prolonged regulatory game.
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