Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010）

During the market downturn, the prediction market has become the brightest sector in the cryptocurrency market. In early February, during a market crash, BTC and ETH fell by over 10%, but the prediction market trading remained active, with weekly transaction counts reaching 26.39 million, setting a new historical high. Meanwhile, as the largest compliant prediction market platform in the United States, Kalshi surged to the top of the sector in January with over $9.5 billion in trading volume, setting a historical monthly transaction volume record. Following this, the market is pricing a new round of pre-IPO shares for Kalshi.

Today we will discuss the question—what should be the reasonable price range for Kalshi's pre-IPO stock expected to become the "first prediction market stock"?

A Survey of Existing Pricing on Tokenized Trading Platforms: PreStocks, Jarsy

As of the time of writing, there is a significant price difference in Kalshi's pre-IPO pricing across two major tokenized trading platforms:

On the PreStocks platform, Kalshi's pre-IPO pricing includes two prices—

one price is the token price based on the implied market cap (market liquidity pricing level), with a per-share price of around $369;

the other price is the reference price based on the capital market cap (current financing pricing level), with a per-share price of around $364.

On the Jarsy platform, Kalshi's single share pre-IPO price has risen to around $504.

It is worth mentioning that compared to when we previously wrote "Kalshi's pre-IPO stock price surged, is it still worth buying now?", the pre-IPO prices of Kalshi on both platforms have seen fluctuations. The price situation at that time was as follows:

• On PreStocks, Kalshi's implied market cap was approximately $14 billion, with a per-share price of about $407;
• On Jarsy, Kalshi's market valuation was $11 billion, with a per-share price of $450.

In other words, the price on the PreStocks platform has dropped from $407 to around $369; the price on the Jarsy platform has increased from $450 to around $504.

In comparison, the pricing in the pre-market of the traditional financial market for Kalshi's stock has also experienced some changes—

• On the Nasdaq Private Market, Kalshi's per-share price has risen from around $307 to around $320;

• On Hiive, Kalshi's per-share price has risen from around $357 by $1 to around $358.

Kalshi's Reasonable Pre-IPO Pricing Range: Around $320~423

Last year, Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series E financing, with a valuation of $11 billion.

According to the market cap and corresponding stock prices mentioned above, Kalshi's number of shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.30 million shares.

The specific calculation method for the number of shares is as follows—

Based on a $11 billion market cap corresponding to pre-market prices of $320 and $358 in traditional financial markets, Kalshi's number of shares is about 30.72 million to 34.37 million shares;

Using the implied market cap/token price and capital market cap/reference price from the PreStocks platform, Kalshi's number of shares is approximately 34.27 million to 34.30 million shares;

Using the per-share pre-IPO purchase price from the Jarsy platform, Kalshi's maximum market cap is $18.665 billion, with a per-share price of $604.84, with a number of shares around 30.86 million.

Based on the above information, we can make the following deductions:

First, based on a valuation of $11 billion, Kalshi's pre-IPO pricing reasonable range is about $320-358, in other words, the pricing on current tokenized trading platforms like PreStocks and Jarsy is relatively high;

Second, Kalshi's trading volume reached $9.5 billion in January, nearing the overall size of the prediction market of approximately $10 billion last October; in October last year, its market share was about 50% of the prediction market, thus it can be seen that Kalshi's current capital market valuation is at least over $15 billion.

Third, based on a $15 billion valuation and taking into account the range of the number of Kalshi's shares and other data, the pre-IPO pricing range for Kalshi's stock is approximately $436~488.

Therefore, if Kalshi's number of shares meets expectations, based on an implied market cap of $15 billion, it is conservatively estimated that Kalshi's pre-IPO pricing reasonable range may be $320~378 (calculated by the average of the lowest price in the pricing range); optimistically estimated, the reasonable range for Kalshi's pre-IPO pricing may be $358~423 (calculated by the average of the highest price in the pricing range).

Based on these data conclusions, the pricing for Kalshi's pre-IPO stock on the Jarsy platform is on the high side, while there are some arbitrage opportunities on the PreStocks platform.

Additionally, the latest stock tokenization trading platform Tessera plans to open equity crowdfunding in the future, which readers can also consider as an alternative option ( invitation code here ).

Combined with relevant information mentioned in the previous article published by Odaily Planet Daily "Data Calculation Shows Polymarket's Annual Revenue Over $100 Million is Not Difficult, Provided the Hypothesis is...":

Based on the "15-Minute Cryptocurrency Price Fluctuation" market trading volume and fee ratio on Polymarket, if Polymarket introduces a similar fee model in all markets under the current trading volume level and trading structure, it is expected to generate $418 million in annual revenue for the platform.

As a trading volume larger and higher fee prediction market platform, given the favorable timing of the sports event year in 2026, Kalshi’s annual revenue is expected to surpass this estimated income from Polymarket, which suggests that the capital market may further increase the pre-IPO pricing of Kalshi's stock.

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