Cryptocurrency News

February 11 Hot Topics:

1. Interactive Brokers launches Coinbase derivatives nano Bitcoin and nano Ethereum futures contracts

2. YZi Labs has written to the CEA Industries Board requesting clarification of false news and full disclosure of related party transactions involving a certain director

3. CFTC Chicago enforcement team vacancy, annual fine amount plummets from $17.1 billion to less than $10 million

4. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 80.4%

5. LayerZero launches Zero public chain solution, participated by Citadel, ICE, and Cathie Wood

Trading Insights

In fact, what destroys traders is not the market, but three kinds of inner demons: 1. Expectation addiction: always wanting to catch every wave, feeling anxious about missing out. But the market is not a lover, it won't give you opportunities just because you try hard. 2. Emotional revenge: wanting to win back losses immediately after one loss, and 90% of the trades made at such times turn into nightmares. 3. Illusion of confidence: after making a little profit, thinking one can see through the market; in reality, that's just the trend giving face, not strength. Those who can get past it save themselves, while those who can’t keep falling in the same place. I once thought trading relied on “courage.” Later, I realized that real courage is: being able to stay in cash when one can, admitting mistakes when one can; waiting when one can, and staying silent amid all the noise. The first lesson the market taught me was losing money, the second lesson was to be quiet, the third lesson was to become someone who is not swayed by the market. Now, I increasingly believe in a saying: the market never rewards the clever; it only favors the patient. A trader’s true growth is not in having a larger account, but in having a steadier mind; able to understand, yet not rush; able to hold on, yet not be carried away; able to afford losses without disorder; able to wait long without panic. It turns out the biggest enemy on the trading path has always been ourselves.

LIFE IS LIKE 

A JOURNEY  ▲

Below are the live trades from the Big White Community this week; congratulations to the crypto friends who followed along. If your operations are not going smoothly, you can come and try the waters.

The data is real, every trade has a screenshot taken at that time.

Search for the public account:Big White Discusses Currency

Bilibili and YouTube account:Daqian777

BTC

Analysis

From the data of Bitcoin, although it seems like there has been a lot of reduction in holdings, in reality, the turnover is not very high, it can even be said to be in a normal state. It is also clear that the main force of the turnover is short-term investors. Many friends can actually anticipate that the price of $BTC will rise in the future, so the more they lose, the less willing they are to sell. However, everyone is waiting for a lower price, and the lack of liquidity has led to insufficient purchasing power. From the chip structure perspective, one can see intuitively that the change in chips on the left and right sides of the URPD is not much, most investors are still observing, but panic has increased the short-term investors' sell-off. What the market mainly lacks now is confidence.

What Binance now needs may actually be an essential transformation of Alpha. This upgrade may struggle to bring Alpha back to a frenzied demand state, mainly because the cost-performance ratio of Alpha is decreasing, the gap between the cost of maintaining scores and the profit is narrowing, and for participants, what matters more is the returns of each participation, rather than whether Alpha provides a blind box or a lamppost.

The earnings of Alpha come from the project parties' airdrops, and the value of the airdrops depends on the skills of the project parties. Currently, the market's trend is not good, except for projects that can acquire contracts themselves, listing has almost come to an end, so the earnings from Alpha have been very low.

It should be considered from the mechanism perspective; I have previously thought whether projects should maintain a certain market value after being listed on Alpha to access contracts, but later realized that it might be difficult for project parties to spend millions to maintain market value without clear answers—it feels like an unsolvable problem.

Conversely, could we consider turning Alpha’s points into a lottery to shorten the probability of winning, and transforming it into a “lottery” format? Meanwhile, Alpha's points should no longer be a simple "刷" (brushing), because while this can increase activity on BNBChain, if the attractiveness of Alpha itself declines, this reduced activity will inevitably happen and will be hard to reverse.

A bounce back to the area around 66123-65755 can be made for long positions, with an additional buy near 64700, targeting around 67000-67700.

ETH

Analysis

The market feels relatively calm: Recently, I haven't been particularly interested in macro data, mainly because all data may not determine the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after June. If Waller is indeed Trump's spokesperson, then whether the data is good or bad won't change the direction of interest rate cuts; and if Waller takes office and becomes the second Powell, although 2026 may be tougher, the probability of risk emerging in the U.S. will decrease.

Therefore, I personally think that all current data is not the most important; what's most important is how many "nails" Trump can plant within the Federal Reserve and how much "weight" the Federal Reserve Chair holds. The most interesting script I can think of now is that Waller leads a few less populous council members calling for easing, while most council members insist on watching the data. However, some friends say that the Federal Reserve Chair's decisions on interest rates are more crucial, and I am waiting to see.

The market in the first half of the year may not be easy. Before the Federal Reserve Chair's position, Trump's tariffs should be able to predict changes in market impact; I guess we will discuss that next year.

A bounce back to the area around 1917-1895-1872 can be made for long positions, targeting around 1980-2030. A rebound to 1992-2030 can be made for short positions, targeting around 1920.

Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice, nor does it bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag; if there is anything unclear, feel free to consult.

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