On February 9, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34%. Overall risk appetite declined, and crypto-related stocks weakened in tandem, but there was no extreme selling. At the same time, Bitcoin's price rebounded to around $69,000, sharply contrasting with the weakness of traditional stock indices. Against a backdrop of rising volatility and safe-haven assets, gold and silver rose 0.93% and 3.94%, respectively, alongside an increase in BVIX and a slight decline in EVIX, indicating a warming of defensive sentiment. This article will explore the causes and sustainability of this divergence between weak stocks and strong cryptocurrencies, analyzing multi-dimensional data from stock indices, volatility, on-chain structure, and security events.
All Three Indices Decline: Technology Under Pressure, Sentiment Cold
● On the index level, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq recorded declines of -0.14%, -0.24%, and -0.34% respectively at the opening on February 9. Although these declines fall within a moderate correction range, they signal a cooling of risk appetite against the backdrop of previous continuous gains. The simultaneous lower opening of the three indices indicates that funds are beginning to price future earnings and interest rate paths more cautiously during a phase of high macroeconomic and valuation levels, shifting sentiment from offensive to defensive.
● In terms of technology weight, Google A fell 0.58% on the same day, coinciding with the announcement of a $15 billion bond issuance plan by its parent company Alphabet, reflecting the market's sensitivity to changes in the financing environment and capital costs for growth stocks. The bond issuance itself is not necessarily bearish, but in an environment of high interest rates and elevated valuations, increasing leverage is more easily interpreted as a combination of "rising capital costs + cash flow pressure," suppressing the short-term performance of high-growth sectors.
● In contrast, Novo Nordisk rose 4.4%, highlighting the relative advantage of defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals during periods of cold market sentiment. As valuations of growth stocks come under pressure, investors turn to stable earnings and inelastic demand leaders in pharmaceuticals to hedge against potential pullback risks. This style switch, along with the strength of gold and silver on the same day, also points to a "defensive priority."
● In this environment, crypto-related stocks in the U.S. market generally performed weakly, more closely following the sentiment of the broader market and growth stocks rather than moving strictly according to Bitcoin spot logic. However, due to a lack of specific individual stock decline data, it can currently only be confirmed that the sector is relatively under pressure without systemic selling, indicating that traditional secondary market funds remain cautious or even conservative towards crypto equity assets.
Bitcoin Returns to $69,000: An Alternative High Beta Under Defensive Sentiment
● On that day, Bitcoin's price rebounded to around $69,000, forming a clear contrast with the declines in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. This misalignment of weak stocks and strong cryptocurrencies reflects, on one hand, a technical and emotional need for recovery after a significant prior decline in Bitcoin; on the other hand, as traditional financial assets come under pressure, some funds view Bitcoin as a "non-fully synchronized correlation with stock indices" allocation tool to hedge against macro or liquidity uncertainties.
● Glassnode points out that the current market holding structure remains defensive, with participants relying more on the sustained recovery of spot demand to support prices rather than being driven by high-leverage derivatives. This means that the short-term rebound is more a rebalancing after profit-taking and passive selling rather than a full return of risk appetite. If spot buying fails to increase in volume, the upward price potential will be significantly constrained.
● Gold and silver rose 0.93% and 3.94% respectively on the same trading day, indicating a significant inflow of funds into traditional safe-haven assets. Within this framework, Bitcoin is no longer just a high-risk asset but is viewed by some funds as a "high-elasticity hedging tool" during a broad rise in safe-haven assets. Its upward movement alongside precious metals suggests that there is a category of investors using diverse assets to hedge against potential systemic risks.
● However, unlike gold and silver, Bitcoin's higher volatility and weaker liquidity structure mean that it remains a high beta asset under the narrative of safe-haven. During traditional market pullbacks, Bitcoin can serve as an "offensive hedging tool" in the short term, gaining beta amplification returns amid fluctuating risk sentiment. However, once the risk-off sentiment reverses or liquidity contracts, its drawdown often exceeds that of precious metals, indicating a significantly higher threshold for capital.
Divergence in Volatility Dual Indicators: BVI…
● In terms of volatility, on February 9, BVIX reported 59.84, rising 6.12% during the day, while EVIX reported 79.28, slightly down 0.63%, showing structural divergence in the short to medium term. The rise in BVIX indicates an increase in near-term implied volatility, with the market clearly expecting significant price fluctuations in the short term; the slight decline in EVIX suggests that long-term panic has not simultaneously escalated, and investors have not collectively priced in long-term systemic risks.
● The rise in BVIX serves as a clear warning to short-term traders, especially those using high leverage: rising implied volatility often accompanies an expansion of price ranges and an increase in "spike" frequency, amplifying the chain effects of forced liquidations and cascading sell-offs. With prices having returned to around $69,000, the margin for error for both long and short leveraged positions is narrowing, and any slight disturbance could trigger passive liquidation and a chain reaction of forced selling.
● The slight decline in EVIX reflects a more stable long-term expectation rather than the market entering a state of full panic. When pricing long-term Bitcoin risks, investors have not significantly raised the volatility premium, indicating that mainstream funds still view this round of volatility as an adjustment and rebalancing within a mid-term bull market rather than a trend reversal. This "short-term tension, long-term moderation" structure is conducive to maintaining long-term allocation sentiment in the spot market.
● Considering the price and volatility levels, Bitcoin's rise to $69,000 and BVIX approaching 60 suggest that the current entry point is not in an optimal range: the upward space relies on new spot funds for confirmation, while the downside faces risks of amplified drawdowns due to high volatility. For chasing funds, the margin for error is narrow, and the risk-reward ratio is neutral, making it easy to be forced out of positions in amplified volatility.
Glassnode Warning:…
● Glassnode compares the current Bitcoin market structure to the patterns before and after May 2022, sending a clear warning signal. At that time, the market appeared to maintain a relatively high level of oscillation on the surface, but internal leverage accumulation, weak liquidity, and soft spot demand laid the groundwork for subsequent sharp declines. This comparison is not a simple prediction of a repeat but serves as a reminder for investors to be wary of the re-emergence of structural fragility.
● In terms of leverage and on-chain activity, there are both similarities and differences between now and the eve of 2022: on one hand, the depth of participation in the derivatives market and the availability of leverage tools remain rich, and the mechanisms for amplifying price volatility have not changed; on the other hand, the increase in spot ETF and institutional participation in this cycle has led to some holdings being more long-term oriented, with relatively moderate on-chain activity. This "leverage still exists, but the participation structure is more complex" pattern makes it difficult for a single indicator to capture all risks.
● Within Glassnode's framework, if spot buying and on-chain real demand are insufficient, then price rebounds are likely to evolve into "distribution selling" of existing chips, where old funds orderly reduce their positions using the emotional recovery window rather than crowding into chasing higher prices. Such structures often manifest as prices repeatedly approaching previous highs, but the growth rate of new on-chain entries and long-term holding addresses fails to keep pace, ultimately leading to an accelerated pullback at some liquidity gap.
● For investors, this means being cautious of high-position chasing behavior driven by emotions, relying more on on-chain data and capital flows to verify the "quality" of rebounds. If there is no sustained increase in spot trading volume, on-chain active addresses, and large transfers, this round of upward movement should be viewed as structural repair rather than the beginning of a new major upward wave, making position management and risk control significantly more important than maximizing short-term returns.
Surge in Signature Phishing: Security Black Swan…
● On the security front, Scam Sniffer data shows that the number of victims of signature phishing in January 2026 surged 207% year-on-year, highlighting the amplifying effect of on-chain security risks during periods of market transition and high volatility. Attackers aim not only to directly steal assets but also to exploit market sentiment and technical complexity to magnify losses at moments when user vigilance is lowest, eroding overall ecosystem trust.
● Such attacks often guide users to authorize signatures through seemingly harmless off-chain messages or interfaces, such as using "airdrop claims," "NFT displays," or "wallet connection verification" in everyday scenarios, allowing contracts to gain extensive control over assets without users being on guard. Many victims mistakenly believe they are merely signing an inconsequential piece of information, only to inadvertently grant asset transfer permissions, making it difficult to recover losses afterward.
● The high frequency of security incidents can elevate market panic premiums on an emotional level and, through the amplification mechanisms of leverage and liquidity, feedback into price and volatility indicators. Once a significant theft or widespread attack occurs, some investors may choose to passively sell to "hedge," exacerbating short-term selling pressure and forming a negative cycle of "price decline—trust damage—further selling," which further elevates the already high BVIX.
● In the current high-volatility environment, investors need to focus not only on price risks but also enhance their security awareness to reduce passive liquidations or "zeroing out" due to reasons such as private key leaks or malicious contract authorizations. Strengthening wallet permission management, diversifying asset storage, and carefully verifying each signature's content are key steps to protect principal, avoid emotional selling, and prevent chain losses during periods of rising volatility.
How Long Can the Misalignment of Weak Stocks and Strong Cryptocurrencies Last?
The coexistence of U.S. stock market pullbacks and Bitcoin rebounds superficially indicates a divergence in asset performance, but fundamentally points to the same mainline: a rise in defensive and risk-averse sentiment. Funds in the stock market are shifting from growth stocks to defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and bonds, precious metals are strengthening, and Bitcoin, after its prior adjustment, is viewed by some funds as a high-elasticity asset with hedging properties, temporarily gaining relative returns in this wave of defensive allocation. However, this does not mean that the crypto market has completely escaped macroeconomic and liquidity constraints; it is more of a phase misalignment.
The current significant rise in BVIX, along with a slight easing in EVIX and the emergence of security risks like signature phishing, indicates that the fragility of this rebound should not be overlooked. The rise in volatility means that any unexpected event could trigger a significant pullback, while security incidents further amplify the negative feedback loop of sentiment. Although prices have returned above $69,000, their underlying support still needs to be validated by more solid spot funds and on-chain activity.
From a longer-term perspective, whether Bitcoin can truly escape the structural downward shadow of 2022 hinges on the sustained expansion of spot demand and real on-chain use cases. If the rebound primarily relies on emotional games of existing funds rather than incremental capital and application-driven growth, it will be difficult to support a healthy and lasting upward trend. Conversely, when on-chain activity, long-term holding addresses, and compliant institutional holdings steadily increase, the market will have more substantial reasons to reassess Bitcoin's mid- to long-term pricing center.
In terms of operations, this stage is more suitable for controlling leverage and building positions in batches rather than emotionally chasing highs. For investors who already hold positions, it is advisable to reserve sufficient margin in a high BVIX environment, reduce overall leverage multiples, and lock in some floating profits through tiered take-profit and stop-loss strategies; for observing funds, pullbacks can be viewed as opportunities for gradual exploratory position building, but this should be based on strict position limits and risk control rules to avoid becoming the "last buyer" at the end of a misaligned market.
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