I am very happy to discuss with Teacher Jiang, and I completely agree with the examples provided by Teacher Jiang.

Arbitraging through the discount of $IBIT and BTC is a very normal and correct thing to do, but what we are discussing is whether the drop on February 6 was caused by the liquidation of IBIT.

From my perspective, the actual data does not show a significant amount of $BTC being redeemed from the primary market IBIT that would impact the market. The net outflow of the spot ETF is far from sufficient to explain the price drop at that time, which at least indicates that the direct selling pressure from on-chain and custody levels is not the main source.

Secondly, the discount in the ETF secondary market triggering arbitrage does not equate to an equal amount of spot selling. As Teacher Jiang mentioned, there are various methods to arbitrage, and spot is just one of them. Moreover, market making and arbitrage hedging usually occur across multiple markets, such as CME, perp, basis, or internal net hedging, and the actual delta that needs to fall on the spot market is often much smaller than the nominal scale.

Therefore, directly linearly mapping IBIT transactions or discounts to BTC selling volume can easily overestimate the transmission intensity.

Additionally, from my personal experience (which may not necessarily be correct), what typically amplifies price waterfalls are the expansion of open interest due to derivatives leverage, negative funding, and triggered liquidations. These factors were more evident in the data at that time. ETF flows can act as a trigger, but the diffusion phase is often driven by the strong liquidation mechanism of perps, rather than the ETF inventory hedge.

Thus, I tend to understand this volatility as the pressure from the ETF secondary market being a part of the market structure, but the level of the drop is still determined by the overall leverage structure and liquidity state, rather than the redemption behavior of IBIT in the primary market.

Of course, if in the future we observe a continuous widening of the discount accompanied by synchronous anomalies in CME basis, dealer inventory, or ETF creation/redemption, I will reassess its weight.

Thank you to @Jiangzhuoer2 Teacher Jiang for your patience.

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