Qinglan Crypto Class is Now Open! BTC's Four Cycles + News Perspective to Help You Keep Up with the Rhythm of the Crypto Market
I. Multi-Cycle Technical Analysis
(1) Daily Chart: Long-Term Downtrend Unchanged, Rebound Faces Resistance
BTC has been in a long-term downtrend on the daily chart, dropping from $96,000 in mid-January to $60,000, a significant decline. On February 7, it closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle at $69,813, indicating strong resistance above $71,000 after rebounding from $60,000.
Key Levels: Strong support at $60,000, strong resistance at $71,000-$72,000. In terms of indicators, RSI rebounded from 15.82 to 32.33 (still in a weak position), and MACD shows a death cross downward with green bars at a high position, indicating the long-term trend has not reversed.
(2) 4-Hour Chart: Clear Mid-Term Rebound Signal, Downward Momentum Exhausted
The 4-hour chart shows key positive signals, with a strong rebound after touching $60,000. MACD shows a golden cross at a low position, and the momentum bars rose from -543 to +1482. After a bottom divergence, the golden cross confirms that mid-term downward momentum is exhausted, and the rebound is expected to continue, but there is significant pressure around $71,000.
(3) 1-Hour Chart: Short-Term Bullish Dominance, Weakening Momentum with Fluctuations
The 1-hour chart clearly shows the rebound path. After a golden cross below the zero line in MACD, DIF strongly crossed above the zero line. Currently, it has retreated from a high position but remains dominant. RSI shows a top divergence above 70, with prices stagnating above $71,000, indicating weakened short-term momentum and entering a fluctuating correction.
(4) 15-Minute Chart: Ultra-Short-Term Surge and Retreat, Fluctuation Digestion
The 15-minute chart shows a "surge - retreat - fluctuation" trend. After surging to $71,500 in the early morning, MACD shows a top divergence death cross, and prices retreated to around $70,000 for consolidation. Moving averages are converging, and RSI hovers around 50, indicating a high-level fluctuation digestion pattern.
II. News and Market Sentiment Coupling Analysis
The news is polarized, and prices significantly diverge from market sentiment, which is the current core contradiction:
(1) Bullish Factors: Short-Term Rebound Support
BTC's daily increase was nearly 20% (the highest in this cycle), with significant gains in the US stock AI sector and crypto concept stocks (MSTR); whales are bottom-fishing, and institutions like Bitwise claim the market is nearing the bottom, collectively driving the rebound.
(2) Bearish Factors: Core Sentiment Suppression
The perpetual contract funding rate remains negative (market is bearish), the fear index has dropped to 6 (extreme fear), and large holders like Yili Hua continue to sell BTC to reduce leverage, with sentiment not recovering alongside the price rebound.
Core Divergence Conclusion: The rebound is either a "dead cat bounce" signaling a short-term end or a reversal born from extreme pessimism, with the reversal needing subsequent sentiment repair confirmation.
III. Comprehensive Forecast and Trading Strategy (Conservative Bias)
Comprehensive Judgment: BTC is in a game of technical rebound and sentiment repair after a sharp decline, with multi-cycle trends not resonating, requiring caution.
(1) Trend Forecast
Long-Term (Daily): Downward trend unchanged; Mid-Term (4-Hour): Downward momentum exhausted, entering a rebound; Short-Term (1-Hour and below): Rebound faces resistance, fluctuating correction.
(2) Key Level Definition
Support Levels: $68,000-$69,000 (recent fluctuation platform), $60,000 (core support); Resistance Levels: $71,000-$72,000 (strong resistance), with a target of $75,000 after a breakout.
(3) Trading Strategy
- Do not chase highs: Rebound momentum weakens in the $71,000 resistance zone, with extremely high risk; 2. Buy on dips: Stabilization at $68,000-$69,000 (in conjunction with 1-hour MACD retesting the zero line, RSI at 50), light long positions, target $71,000, stop loss below $67,500; 3. Follow through on breakouts: If $72,000 is broken with volume and sentiment support, follow in with a small position, target $75,000 (low probability); 4. Risk control first: Extreme sentiment leads to high volatility, strict stop losses, light positions, and until sentiment repair is confirmed, only define it as a technical rebound.
IV. Trading Message
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, updates are available in my Qinglan Crypto Class, www.qinglan.org
"The market is always born in despair, grows in hesitation, and dies in euphoria." Currently, BTC is at the intersection of despair and hesitation, requiring rational observation, patient waiting, discarding FOMO impulses, respecting the market, and strictly controlling risks.
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