Event Review 🔍
Recently, the ETH market has shown significant volatility, accompanied by a storm of global macroeconomic and regulatory policies, with ETH prices experiencing sharp rises and falls in a short period. Market participants, from institutional bottom feeders to retail short-term profit takers, have entered the market, showcasing a complete "roller coaster" trend from panic to rebound and back to adjustment. Some well-known institutions and mining pool leaders took advantage of the oversold period to buy in large quantities, coupled with global uncertainty regarding new regulatory rules and government policies, prompting ETH to show a noticeable pullback and technical profit-taking in a short time.
Timeline ⏱
- 20:30～21:00
Continuous global macro news emerged, including a deadlock in government funding negotiations, risks of government shutdowns, and uncertainty regarding the timing of interest rate cuts in Europe and the U.S., while China and Europe strengthened regulatory measures on crypto businesses. - 20:33
Amid widespread market panic, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, Jiang Zhuoer, announced the purchase of ETH at $1850, signaling a buying opportunity. - 21:00
The ETH price was in the range of $1918–$1920, at which point buying activity began to increase, triggering a sharp rebound in the market. - 21:00 to 22:45
In the following 101 minutes, the ETH price surged from about $1920 to $2002, an increase of approximately 4.25%–4.26%, reflecting a rapid inflow of institutional buying funds and a warming market sentiment. - 23:15
After the peak of the rebound, some institutions took profits, and the ETH price fell back to about $1961, showing signs of short-term adjustment.
Reason Analysis 🌐
- Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
- The deadlock in global government funding negotiations, risks of government shutdowns, and differing views among U.S. federal officials on the timing of interest rate cuts have put the entire market in a state of high tension.
- The adjustment of interest rate policy expectations by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, along with regulatory agencies strengthening the regulation of virtual currencies and RWA businesses, has led to a decrease in market risk appetite and temporary liquidity tightening.
- In this context, some institutions seized the opportunity to buy at low prices, believing that extreme emotions provided opportunities for long-term positioning, driving a short-term rebound in ETH.
- Regulatory Policy Storm and Market Structure Repricing
- China, Europe, and the U.S. have successively released new regulatory rules for virtual currencies and stablecoins, which have changed the logic of market fund allocation.
- In the face of strict regulation, some institutions adjusted their positions, taking profits early to avoid risks; meanwhile, some long-term funds further positioned themselves at low levels, leading to a capital-driven rally.
Technical Analysis 📊
Data Source: Based on [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick data
Price and Trend
The ETH price briefly rebounded to touch the upper Bollinger Band, superficially indicating a reversal trend, but this may also mean increased short-term selling pressure.
The KDJ indicator has shown a death cross and the indicators are converging, suggesting a potential trend reversal in the short term.
Moving Average System and Trading Volume
MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bullish arrangement, indicating short-term bullish sentiment; however, the price encountered resistance near MA50, suggesting medium-term adjustment risks.
The current price is below EMA120, and this moving average has a slope of -0.50%, indicating that the ultra-long-term trend remains weak, and long-term bearish signals should not be ignored.
Current trading volume has significantly increased (up 55.85% from the average level), and the short-term 10-day moving average has risen by 18.23%, indicating enhanced market activity, but the 20-day moving average has decreased by 13.85%, suggesting a decline in medium-term trading enthusiasm.
From the TD price reversal pattern, bearish signals have begun to emerge, and short-term profit-taking pressure may increase.
Large Orders and Significant Transactions
In the past hour, the entire network saw about $6 million in liquidations, with short positions accounting for 59%, indicating that some traders remain cautious about the downside;
Additionally, there was a net inflow of about $4 million from major players, indicating that during the rebound, institutional funds dominated, but profit-taking has also begun to decompose some buying enthusiasm.
Market Outlook 🔮
Currently, while the ETH rebound shows active short-term capital involvement, from a technical and macro environment perspective, the overall oscillation risk remains significant.
- Short-term Strategy: Investors are advised to pay attention to key support and resistance levels, considering cautiously following up above $2000, waiting for technical indicators to further clarify buy and sell signals; profits should be taken in batches as appropriate.
- Medium to Long-term Positioning: After global regulatory policies gradually take effect and market sentiment eases, long-term investors can focus on buying at price lows, but should allocate reasonable positions to avoid sudden risks.
- Market Risk Warning: As government policies and central bank dynamics continue to impact the market, ETH and the overall digital assets may still experience significant volatility in the near future. Investors need to closely monitor macro data and changes in regulatory news, flexibly adjust strategies, and avoid blindly chasing highs.
Overall, against the backdrop of a global macro environment and a storm of policies, while ETH has released rebound signals in the oversold range, the long-term trend still requires time to verify. Investors should rationally view market fluctuations, manage risk and position diversification, and pay attention to changes in key technical indicators to cope with the uncertainty of continued market oscillation.
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