This week in East 8 Time Zone, as ETH continues to decline in the secondary market, a large on-chain whale address “7 Siblings” has been countering the downward trend by continuously increasing its position. On-chain data shows that during this adjustment, it has accumulated 4813.22 ETH, worth approximately 10.08 million USD, contrasting sharply with the 871 million USD in liquidations across the entire contract market over 24 hours: one side is passively cutting positions to exit, while the other is quietly absorbing chips. At this fork in the road, the game between the whale's bullish stance against the emotional panic of retail investors will determine the future price direction of this batch of chips, raising the question of “who is panicking and who is bottom-fishing” for all participants.
The Whale "7 Siblings" Patiently Lurking
● Address Profile and Action Timing: The whale address “7 Siblings” is known for its large capital and concentrated operations on-chain, with this round of actions mainly occurring during a phase of continuous weakness in ETH and a clear decline in market risk appetite. From the funding trajectory, its accumulation is not an impulsive action at a single point in time, but rather occurs multiple times during the price decline, in sync with the overall downward rhythm, showing a typical “drop—buy—wait” pattern.
● Accumulation Scale and Capital Magnitude: According to on-chain statistics, “7 Siblings” has accumulated approximately 4813.22 ETH during this adjustment, translating to a total value of about 10.08 million USD at the current trading range. This scale is equivalent to a concentrated position build-up by a medium-sized fund, which is sufficient to change the local liquidity structure for a single asset, reflecting its clear stance on the current price range: viewing this round of pullback as an opportunity for allocation rather than a risk point that must be reduced.
● Gradual Buying Rhythm and Cost: On a finer time scale, in the latest 1 hour, this address bought 1994.98 ETH, with a calculated average price of about 2070.31 USD; looking back 19 hours, its overall average buying cost is about 2094.31 USD. This means the whale has repeatedly absorbed chips within a narrow range, stabilizing the building cost in a relatively concentrated band, rather than chasing prices in a volatile market.
● Patient Lurking Rather Than Short-term Sprinting: From the operational rhythm, “7 Siblings”’s actions are closer to pre-emptively building positions: first, it places segmented orders to absorb during the downward process, waiting for market sentiment to self-trample, rather than following short-term rallies. The buying behavior and price rebound do not resonate synchronously but show a structure of “price drop—whale adds position—price remains under pressure,” indicating a tolerance for time and volatility, more like locking in chips for a future cycle rather than chasing price differences within a trading day.
One Side is Liquidation While the Other Quietly Enters
● Liquidation Scale and Bullish Collapse: According to CoinAnk data, the total liquidation amount across the network reached 871 million USD in the past 24 hours, with reports indicating that the proportion of long liquidations once reached as high as 85%. This means that in this round of decline, the dominant force being liquidated is high-leverage longs, with each price drop compounding the passive selling effect of forced liquidations, pushing sentiment from panic to despair, creating a typical “long squeeze” scenario.
● Active Absorption vs. Passive Liquidation Contrast: During the same period, “7 Siblings” continued to buy ETH at or near market prices, forming a strong behavioral contrast with the passive liquidation of positions. One side is selling chips to the market under insufficient margin and forced liquidation, while the other is rhythmically choosing trading ranges to absorb these forced sales, clearly distinguishing between active and passive, forced and composed roles.
● Buying on Dips vs. Leverage Liquidation Misalignment: Structurally, this is a misalignment between “buying on dips with no leverage/low leverage” and “high-leverage longs being liquidated”: leveraged funds are passively cutting losses at local lows, while spot or low-leverage funds take the opportunity to step in. This misalignment not only changes the profile of chip holders but also shifts ETH's circulating chips from high-risk preference hands to accounts that can better withstand volatility, laying the groundwork for future price elasticity.
● Amplifying Effect of Misalignment on Future Volatility: When a large amount of chips is redistributed under extreme sentiment, short-term volatility often does not immediately subside. After high-leverage longs are cleared, the selling pressure from forced liquidations above the market eases, but the low-position chips are concentrated in a few patient accounts; once the price rebounds, liquidity can easily experience a “run” to chase higher prices; conversely, if macro or industry bearish factors accumulate again, panic selling may also trigger faster liquidations due to the “memory effect.” This restructuring of chip structure serves as an amplifier for future large fluctuations.
Binance's New Coin Story Steals ETH's Narrative Spotlight
● Rainbow Launch and Topic Theft: Amidst ETH's violent fluctuations, the Binance Alpha Plan announced the launch of the Rainbow (RNBW) token on February 6, attracting concentrated attention from the community and speculative funds. As a new project within the Alpha Plan, Rainbow dominated social discussions and market pages during the pre-launch phase, causing market focus to shift from mainstream assets to new narrative tokens in a short time.
● Capital and Attention Migration's Squeeze Effect: In the short term, some high-frequency funds and accounts with higher risk appetites often withdraw liquidity from mainstream assets like ETH to invest in new targets like Rainbow that exhibit high volatility and narrative premiums. This “chasing new and abandoning old” rotation marginally weakens ETH's trading activity and price momentum, making it appear relatively quiet during the same period, even amplifying the characteristics of volume-less declines.
● Reverse Layout's Signal Implications: During the window when attention and traffic were drawn away by Rainbow, “7 Siblings” chose to increase its position in ETH, which itself is a form of reverse layout: while most are attracted by the new story, the whale is slowly accumulating in the overlooked old asset. This behavior is often based on a judgment—short-term sentiment will always flow back from the new story to the fundamentals, and at this time, ETH's price has already implied some “discount for being overlooked.”
● Old Assets vs. New Tokens Cycle Game: From a longer perspective, the rotation between mainstream assets and new narrative tokens is almost a norm in every cycle: new coins amplify stories and volatility in their early launch phase, attracting chips and attention; subsequently, funds gradually differentiate in high-stakes games, with some profit or stop-loss funds flowing back into mainstream assets like ETH, seeking a more stable “anchor.” The whale's bet on ETH at this time is actually positioning itself for this potential return flow, rather than participating in short-cycle speculation.
US Stock Market Correction and Risk Asset Linkage's Underflow
● Bullish Losses and Stock Price Decline Signals: On the traditional market side, the compliant trading platform Bullish reported a Q4 net loss of 563.6 million USD, and after the earnings report was released, its stock price fell about 5% in a single day. As a publicly listed platform highly related to the crypto industry, its massive losses and stock price pressure send a clear signal to the market: even with the advancement of institutionalization and compliance, crypto-related businesses still face dual challenges of profit pressure and valuation compression in the current macro environment.
● Pressure on Tech Stocks and Nasdaq Futures: During the same period, Nasdaq futures fell about 1%, and tech giant Alphabet's stock price dropped about 5%, indicating that US tech stocks are facing overall valuation corrections and growth expectation adjustments. For the Nasdaq and large tech stocks, which are consistently viewed as “risk asset barometers,” this synchronized weakness signifies a general cooling of global funds' risk appetite, rather than an isolated event in the crypto industry.
● Macro Pressure's Transmission to Crypto Sentiment: In this context, it is difficult for crypto assets like ETH to remain unaffected—whether through the rebalancing of institutional asset portfolios or through the linkage of market sentiment, the “risk asset chain” between tech stocks, Nasdaq, and crypto assets is bringing external pressure on-chain. The traditional market's correction adds another layer of shadow to the already wavering crypto sentiment, amplifying the panic reactions of retail and leveraged funds.
● Whale's Risk Pricing Amid Macro Headwinds: It is precisely under this macro headwind that “7 Siblings” chooses to increase its position against the trend, reflecting a risk pricing approach that is distinctly different from the market mainstream: it seems to focus more on ETH's relative value in future cycles rather than the macro noise of the current week or two. Within this framework, short-term pullbacks are viewed as long-term discounts, while the turmoil in traditional markets is calculated as a better entry price rather than a systemic risk to avoid.
Are On-Chain Whales Smart Money or Passive Long-term Holders?
● Market Interprets as Long-term Bullish: From the perspective of social media and researchers, many viewpoints directly interpret “7 Siblings”'s actions as a vote for ETH's long-term prospects, claiming its accumulation model “shows its long-term confidence in ETH.” In the absence of more detailed background information, this interpretation reflects the market's habitual labeling thinking: large purchases are often automatically classified as “smart money's long-term layout.”
● Gradual Accumulation and Time Diversification Strategy Characteristics: From the on-chain path, this address adopts a typical method of gradual buying and extended time, locking in an average cost of around 2094.31 USD through evenly distributed orders within 19 hours, while also concentrating on buying 1994.98 ETH in the latest 1 hour to increase the overall position. This “slow at first, then fast” rhythm resembles confirming that the price has entered the target range before accelerating the accumulation, smoothing the cost curve while treating extreme emotions as signals to add positions.
● Key Information Gaps and Uncertainty: However, it must be emphasized that the currently available public information does not include the true identity, source of funds, or strategic objectives behind “7 Siblings”, all of which constitute key information gaps for judgment. We can only see the on-chain results—purchase amounts, times, and prices—but cannot confirm whether it is an active long-term allocation, a delegated execution, or part of some passive rebalancing; whether it is “smart money” remains inconclusive at the data level.
● Risks and Boundaries of Following Whales: For ordinary participants, treating whale behavior as the sole trading guide is itself a risk-amplifying approach. Even if it ultimately proves to be a successful long-term layout, its capital size, drawdown tolerance, and source of funds are completely different from those of most individual investors. Blindly mimicking not only risks entering at the wrong time and price but also easily overlooks differences in one's own position structure, leverage ratio, and psychological tolerance, turning what should be a “bottom-fishing” action into a new round of passive entrapment.
The Next Step at the Intersection of Panic and Greed
● Chip Redistribution Amid Emotional Collision: In this round of market activity, one side is the 871 million USD liquidation wave across the network, especially the high proportion of long liquidations; the other side is “7 Siblings” accumulating 4813.22 ETH, worth about 10.08 million USD, against the trend. Panic and greed play out within the same time window, driving ETH chips from high-leverage, emotional accounts to holders who can better withstand volatility and have a slower rhythm, completing a typical transfer from “weak hands to strong hands.”
● Short-term Violent Fluctuations vs. Mid-to-Long-term Value Game: It can be expected that in the short term, ETH's price volatility will likely remain high—emotional recovery after leverage liquidation, repeated macro uncertainties, and the tug-of-war between new narratives and mainstream assets will continue to create significant up-and-down fluctuations. However, from a longer perspective, this batch of newly formed chips during the decline will participate in the next round of value reassessment, determining the height and sustainability of future rebounds.
● Two Main Lines to Continuously Monitor: Looking ahead, there are two clues worth closely tracking: first, whether on-chain addresses like “7 Siblings” continue to increase their positions or at least maintain their holding status; second, whether the pressure on macro-level U.S. stocks, tech stocks, and crypto-related listed companies eases or intensifies. These two main lines will jointly shape the market's pricing of risk premiums and will directly affect ETH's performance range in the coming weeks and even months.
● Returning to Position and Cycle Awareness: For ordinary participants, amidst the noise of narratives and emotions, it is more important not to speculate on the motives behind each whale transaction but to return to one's own position management and cycle awareness: clarifying how much drawdown you can tolerate, how long you are willing to bear volatility, and whether you truly understand the risk attributes of the assets you hold. When you can provide clear answers to these questions, each move by the whale will no longer be a signal that must be followed but merely a reference variable within your framework.
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