Vitalik Buterin candidly stated in a recent article that relying on Layer2 for Ethereum's scalability is "no longer reasonable," a statement that sent shockwaves through the entire crypto world.

The increase in the Ethereum mainnet's gas limit and the implementation of native Rollups are reshaping the narrative around blockchain scalability. According to core market data, the total value of Ethereum Rollups has decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, down to $40.3 billion, significantly retreating from nearly $50 billion in mid-2025.

After Vitalik's article was published, Layer2 builders quickly responded. Base leader Jesse Pollak publicly stated: "L2 cannot just be 'a cheaper Ethereum'."

1. Strategic Shift

On February 3, 2026, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin made a statement that caught the industry's attention: the once core vision of Layer2 for Ethereum's expansion is "no longer reasonable."

● He candidly said: "The original 'Rollup-centric roadmap' can no longer reflect the evolution of the ecosystem."

● Layer2 solutions were envisioned as a natural extension of Ethereum, promising to process transactions faster and at lower costs while inheriting the security of the Ethereum mainnet.

● However, the reality is that many Layer2 networks have failed to meet this standard. Vitalik specifically pointed out that if a chain's connection to the Ethereum mainnet is only achieved through a multi-signature bridge, it is essentially not scaling Ethereum.

2. Trust Crisis

● Vitalik proposed a three-stage framework for measuring the decentralization of Rollups. According to L2beat statistics, among the current top 20 Rollup projects, only 1 has reached the second stage, which represents complete trustlessness. Up to 12 of the remaining projects are still in stage 0—heavily reliant on auxiliary functions and multi-signatures.

● "At least stage 1 should be reached," Vitalik emphasized, "otherwise these networks should be seen as more competitive, 'vampiric' Layer1 networks with cross-chain bridges."

● The issues are not limited to technology. Vitalik revealed that at least one company has explicitly stated it may never want to move beyond the first stage, citing both technical considerations regarding ZK-EVM security and client regulatory requirements that demand they maintain ultimate control.

3. Industry Shockwaves

● Vitalik's statement immediately triggered a chain reaction within the Layer2 ecosystem. Major projects quickly responded, showcasing the profound impact of this shift on the entire industry.

● Optimism Foundation co-founder Karl Floersch acknowledged on social media that they are currently facing multiple challenges, including long withdrawal times and the second stage proof not being ready for large-scale production.

● Arbitrum developer Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder held a different view, arguing that scalability remains the core value of Layer2. He emphasized that during peak activity, Arbitrum and Base combined processed over 1,000 transactions per second, far exceeding the Ethereum mainnet.

4. Technical Dilemmas

● Starknet experienced about four hours of block production downtime on January 5, 2026, marking the second major failure of the network in less than four months. The team later confirmed that the issue was caused by transaction validation errors.

● Conflicts between the execution layer and proof layer led to approximately 18 minutes of on-chain activity being rolled back. This incident exposed the ongoing challenge for Layer2 solutions to ensure stability while maintaining high throughput.

● Once integrated into the underlying layer, ZK-EVM proofs can be used to scale Layer1. This precompiled layer will be written into the Ethereum base layer and "will automatically upgrade with Ethereum."

5. Mainnet Ascendancy

● In stark contrast to the challenges faced by Layer2, the scalability of the Ethereum mainnet itself is significantly improving. In mid-December last year, Ethereum developers discussed plans to raise the gas limit from 60 million to 80 million.

● The second hard fork, which only adjusted parameters, took effect in January, directly increasing the number of transactions and smart contract operations that each Ethereum block can accommodate.

● According to a ten-year plan released by Ethereum researcher Justin Drake last July, once all scalability features are implemented, the Ethereum mainnet's TPS will reach 10,000, a significant increase from the currently common 15-30 TPS.

6. New Directions

● Vitalik did not completely deny the value of Layer2 but rather redefined its role. He suggested that Layer2 networks, including Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, and Starknet, should shift from scalability to focusing on specific domains.

● Privacy, identity, social applications, and artificial intelligence have become new development directions. This shift opens the door for specialized networks—some focusing on high-throughput gaming, others on confidential DeFi, and some on identity or supply chain tracking.

● Vitalik emphasized that Layer2 should stop being viewed as "branded shards" of Ethereum and should be seen as a complete spectrum, including various options with different degrees of connection to Ethereum.

7. Market Outlook

● As the scalability of the Ethereum mainnet strengthens, the competitive landscape for Layer2 is undergoing fundamental changes. Base leader Jesse Pollak pointed out that Ethereum L1 scaling is "a victory for the entire ecosystem."

● Market analysis shows that the future of Layer2 tokens depends on whether they can find unique value propositions beyond simple scalability. Factors such as whether ZK verification can be stable and scalable, whether L1 scaling truly reduces marginal costs, and whether applications are willing to pay will all impact the future development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

● Despite facing transformation challenges, Rollups currently process about 3,470 user operations per second, a significant increase from early 2025, demonstrating their continued importance in execution and low-cost transactions.

Arbitrum developer Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder remains confident about the future of Layer2, warning that if the market perceives Ethereum as unfriendly to rollups, institutional users may lean towards building their own Layer1.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum mainnet is continuously enhancing its capabilities through multiple upgrades in 2026. With the increase in gas limits and the maturation of technologies like ZK-EVM, the Ethereum mainnet is re-establishing its core position in the scalability narrative.

The aftershocks of this strategic adjustment are still spreading, and the future of Layer2 will depend on whether they can successfully transform into differentiated, specialized execution environments, rather than just being "a cheaper Ethereum."

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