The price of $BTC has already fallen below the drop caused by the trade war last April.

CN
Phyrex
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3 hours ago

The price of $BTC has already fallen below the drop caused by the trade war last April. Not only that, but this is also the lowest price since Trump campaigned for president, intending to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and after the U.S. became the cryptocurrency capital. During the trade war, at least we knew the reasons, but this time it seems that liquidity is really poor, leading to significant sell-offs at the slightest disturbance.

Of course, U.S. stocks are also falling today, and they only started to drop after the market opened. The pre-market CME U.S. stock futures were still performing well, which indicates that at least the main trading time zones for Asian and European investors did not see significant selling. Moreover, U.S. stocks were rising when they first opened, and then they fell all the way down. I wonder if this is due to pessimistic expectations regarding the U.S. government shutdown.

Aside from that, the only other thing I can think of is the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the U.S., but it doesn't quite feel like that. However, we will know tomorrow. As of now, the House of Representatives is voting on the funding bill. If it passes, the shutdown will likely end. If the drop is due to the shutdown, we should see a rebound afterward; if not, it could be more troublesome.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the actual turnover rate is not very high, which means the market has not entered a panic phase. Moreover, the turnover is mainly from short-term investors, and there are no significant signs of early investors exiting. This indicates that the selling pressure is not very high, and the steep drop is most likely due to poor liquidity and low buying volume. I will check the data tomorrow during the day to find out.

Right now, many are saying things don't look good, so let's slowly rule out the reasons. I just saw that the shutdown has ended, and the House voted to pass the bill, which will soon be sent to Trump for signing. Let's see if the market can stop falling. The current chip structure still seems normal, and we can clearly see that there hasn't been a large-scale change in chips. However, U.S. stocks are still falling, with the Nasdaq already down 2.5%. If this is really just due to the shutdown, then it would be simple.

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