Gold prices plummeted more than 9% in a single day, while silver once dropped 36%. Wall Street traders, faced with cliff-like charts on their screens, hurriedly returned calls discussing the new Federal Reserve chair nominee from the previous night.
The market has just undergone the baptism of "Black Friday"—the precious metals market experienced an epic sell-off. Meanwhile, the news of Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair acted like a stone thrown into a calm lake, creating ripples across global markets.
As the new trading week begins on February 3, investors will digest the violent fluctuations in the precious metals market, refocusing on the direction of Federal Reserve policy, key non-farm payroll data, and the earnings reports of tech giants that shape market sentiment.
February 3, Monday: Market Digests "Black Friday"
● The financial markets will face the aftermath of "Black Friday" as the new week opens. Last Friday, the precious metals market saw a historic sell-off due to concerns about the hawkish monetary policy outlook that Warsh might bring.
● CME Group announced an increase in the trading margin requirements for gold and silver futures, adding further pressure to already weak long positions. Investors will assess whether this sell-off is a healthy correction within a long-term uptrend or the beginning of a trend reversal.
● This week, the news of Warsh being nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair will continue to develop. Trump stated that his clear criterion for selecting the Federal Reserve chair is "to support low interest rate levels", and that the Federal Reserve chair should consult him when formulating monetary policy.
● Warsh has a unique background: he is a former Federal Reserve governor, and his father-in-law is billionaire Ronald Lauder—who is a college classmate of Trump and donated $5 million to Trump's super PAC in March 2025.
February 4, Tuesday: Alphabet's Earnings Reveal AI Investment Intensity
● Market focus will shift to corporate earnings, particularly the capital expenditure plans of tech giants. Google's parent company, Alphabet, is set to announce its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday.
● According to market consensus, Alphabet's earnings per share are expected to be $2.58, a 20% year-on-year increase; revenue is expected to reach $94.69 billion, a 16.01% year-on-year increase. Investors will pay special attention to the company's capital expenditure guidance in artificial intelligence infrastructure and the performance of its cloud computing business.
● Recently, Microsoft and Meta confirmed in their earnings reports that the demand for AI computing power continues to exceed supply, significantly raising their capital expenditure guidance. The market will examine whether Alphabet will convey similar signals.
February 5, Wednesday: Amazon's Earnings and ADP Employment Data
● Amazon will release its earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. The market expects its earnings per share to be $1.96, with revenue expected to be $211.27 billion. Over the past few quarters, Amazon's performance has consistently exceeded expectations.
● In addition to revenue and profit, the market will focus on analyzing Amazon's performance across various business segments, especially the growth of its AWS cloud services and its investment layout in AI.
● On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment figures for January (the "small non-farm") will also be released, providing a forward-looking guide for Friday's significant non-farm data. The ADP data will reveal the hiring situation in the U.S. private sector.
February 6, Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims and Layoff Metrics
● The U.S. Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 1. Data from the previous week showed that initial jobless claims were 209,000, slightly above expectations. This data has remained stable in the range of 200,000 to 210,000, reflecting that the U.S. labor market is still in a "low hiring, low firing" state.
● On the same day, the Challenger job cuts report will also be released. This report tracks announced layoff plans by companies and serves as a leading indicator that can reveal companies' assessments of future demand. In December 2025, U.S. employers announced 10,496 hiring plans, but the total number of planned hires for the year decreased by 34% compared to 2024, marking the lowest level since 2010.
Investors will use this data to comprehensively assess whether there are signs of cooling in the labor market.
February 7, Friday: Non-Farm Employment Report Sets Market Tone
● The highlight of the week will be the U.S. Department of Labor's release of the January non-farm employment report. Current economists expect that the number of new non-farm jobs in January will be 70,000, up from 50,000 in December; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%.
● This report is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy path. Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted after the last interest rate meeting that the U.S. unemployment rate has shown signs of stabilization, and the labor market may stabilize after experiencing a moderate softening.
● If the non-farm data confirms that the labor market is beginning to stabilize, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's position to maintain high interest rates for a longer period, providing support for the dollar. Conversely, if the data is significantly weaker than expected, market bets on interest rate cuts may increase.
The week's narrative will become clear after the non-farm report is released. The nomination of the new Federal Reserve chair, which has run throughout the week, still faces uncertainties in the Senate Banking Committee, as Republican Senator Tillis has stated that he will oppose the confirmation of any Federal Reserve-related nominations until the investigation into the current chair Powell is concluded.
The data on Friday will directly test Powell's judgment about the "reduced risks in the job market." As traders wrap up their week, they take away not just an employment report, but a reassessment of economic resilience and policy paths in a high-interest-rate environment.
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