Will MicroStrategy have issues? It's not an arithmetic problem, but a game theory problem.

As Bitcoin declines, MicroStrategy's creditors may directly demand their money back.

MicroStrategy has prepared a reserve of $2.19 billion to cope with this.

At the same time, similar to a bank run: the worse the situation, the harder it is to finance, the lower the confidence, and the more the stock price falls.

When the new weekly report is released, losses will further increase, and some conservative institutions will not be allowed to allocate their stocks anymore, which may lead to them being kicked out of the index, further triggering sell-offs and causing the aforementioned negative spiral.

MicroStrategy's business model is perfect; it has designed to consider various worst-case scenarios as much as possible. However, whether it can withstand the test if extremely bad situations occur in the future depends on the market's faith in it.

If the bull market returns, it will be safe.

If the bull market does not return, it will remain at risk.

If the bear market is deep, it will be in a chain of risks.

One can't help but recall the famous Murphy's Law: the more you worry about something happening, the more likely it is to happen.

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