Today, I hardly looked at the market. There are two key time points to focus on: one is in the morning during the Asian time zone after yesterday's significant drop, whether to buy the dip or follow the sell-off, or remain indifferent. Currently, it seems the choice was to remain indifferent. Then, we look at the time when the U.S. stock market opens in the evening. Although it hasn't opened yet, the drop on Saturday started at the same time. If Sunday hasn't ended, it's likely to start from this time as well. I woke up and it was almost 4 AM; the reaction isn't too significant. Next, we will see what happens on Monday.

The same two time points apply on Monday. Asian investors will start working first, one being the opening of U.S. stock futures, whether it continues to drop. Since the reasons for the final drop are uncertain, we can only look at the emotional aspect. If U.S. stocks continue to fall, many friends are worried that Bitcoin will continue to drop as well. However, from my personal perspective, Bitcoin ($BTC) has already dropped before the U.S. stocks over the weekend, so the possibility of such a large drop again is unlikely.

Especially since the drop over the weekend was quite severe, there are liquidity reasons for that. After the workweek starts, liquidity will increase, and buying power will also rise. I calculated yesterday that the average buying price for the spot ETF is around $75,000. Miners with machines priced below $200,000 have almost all stopped working. Even the cost for $MSTR is above $76,000, which should attract interest from many institutions.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate on Sunday was still quite high for the weekend, indicating that the fluctuations in $BTC prices still caused some short-term investors to panic the next day. Next, we need to see the reaction on Monday, especially since there will be a brief halt on Monday, but this halt's impact isn't significant; the market estimates it will end by Tuesday, so there are no further negative factors politically.

This drop was triggered by Microsoft, and the cash positions of fund managers might be the last straw that broke the camel's back. If these two factors are correct, the space for further decline in U.S. stocks is actually limited, as there is currently no systemic risk. The narrative around AI remains very strong.

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