"This Round of Decline is Likely Triggered by a Chain Liquidity Crisis Induced by the Rise of Gold and Silver"

According to official data:

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_sf.htm

The current net short position in gold is 207,000 contracts/100 ounces, with each $100 increase resulting in a floating loss of approximately $2.077 billion for banks (institutional hedging, etc.).

For silver, each $10 increase in the silver price corresponds to a maximum floating loss of $1.1 billion.

Everyone is now waiting for Monday; if prices continue to soar, especially smaller banks will need to replenish margins more quickly. Bitcoin will be the first to be sold off, followed by the slower-moving U.S. stocks—if U.S. stocks open with a significant drop, the aforementioned scenario becomes more likely.

Current strategy:

Hold a portion of BTC and a portion of U.S. Treasuries/cash.

Wait until after Monday to see if banks encounter problems (not necessarily failures, but rather liquidity crises in smaller banks).

If a systemic major issue truly arises in the future, compounded by war (the U.S. currently seems to be entering an unprecedented moment of chaos and fragility in the financial system, with the outbreak of external wars posing the greatest risk), the best bottom-fishing moment may be when everything improves + significant monetary easing (it is clear that, currently, U.S. inflation pressures and other factors make it difficult to ease without extreme special circumstances).

Remember one conclusion: when a crisis occurs (even if we are not yet aware of it), Bitcoin, as the most liquid asset, serves as a leading indicator (not necessarily indicating Bitcoin is the worst), because it will be sold off first for cash; conversely, when the crisis is resolved, Bitcoin will also rebound ahead of U.S. stocks.

The current situation for banks is quite poor; currently, the bad debt rate in U.S. commercial real estate is higher than during the pandemic, with over 40% of offices vacant. Regional banks with a high proportion of commercial real estate loans may see their stock prices plummet, compounded by further tightening liquidity.

Continuing to hold assets, let the storm come even stronger.

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