The three negative factors of this week have all materialized, and now only the government shutdown remains. From the current information, it seems highly likely that the U.S. government will shut down next Monday, but this shutdown is expected to be brief, as the Senate is advancing an agreement that includes a short-term continuing resolution and several annual appropriations bills. However, the House of Representatives is currently in recess and will not return to vote until Monday afternoon (Monday night Beijing time).

Therefore, it is likely that the shutdown will still be in effect on Monday morning, but it may end in the afternoon or later that day, depending on the voting progress in the House. Currently, it is generally believed on Kalshi that the duration of the shutdown could be around 1-2 days. Thus, this shutdown is not expected to have a significant impact on the market, and even during the shutdown, not all departments will be affected.

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