🧐 Bloomberg Breaking: Trump to Appoint "Hawk of Hawks" to the Federal Reserve | Will this be an endless negative for Bitcoin, or an important selection and turning point?

Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is preparing to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman.

Interestingly, the market is still waiting for interest rate cuts?

Trump may have chosen a Federal Reserve Chairman who opposes bailouts.

Who is Warsh?

He is one of the few hardliners, rule-based, and anti-inflation figures within the Federal Reserve system.

Having experienced the 2008 financial crisis, he has seen firsthand how QE evolved from a "firefighting tool" to a "permanent dependency," which naturally instills a sense of crisis awareness and risk aversion.

If the market has become accustomed to "liquidity injections" and "central bank backstops" over the past few years, then the emergence of Kevin Warsh signifies that this assumption is being challenged.

However, what I want to discuss is:

When a person who opposes unlimited liquidity and emphasizes monetary discipline encounters an anti-establishment, fiscally aggressive Trump administration, is Bitcoin a risk asset or an answer found in institutional cracks?

1️⃣ Basic Attitude

Kevin Warsh, born in 1970, has a typical "Wall Street + White House + Federal Reserve" trifecta background.

In summary: he is famously known as the "hawk of hawks" within the Federal Reserve.

2️⃣ Basic Resume:

Kevin Warsh was born on April 13, 1970, and is currently 55 years old. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Public Policy from Stanford University (1992, majoring in Economics and Statistics). He then obtained a Juris Doctor degree from Harvard Law School (1995) and studied market economics and debt capital markets at Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan School of Management.

His career began in 1995 when he joined Morgan Stanley's mergers and acquisitions department, gradually rising to the level of Vice President and Executive Director, focusing on financial analysis and strategic growth.

From 2002 to 2006, he served as Special Assistant to President George W. Bush for Economic Policy and Executive Secretary of the National Economic Council, participating in the formulation of various economic policies.

In 2006, he was appointed as a member of the Federal Reserve Board (the youngest member in history at the time) until he left in March 2011. During this period, he focused on financial and economic dynamics, monetary policy, and played a key role during the 2008 global financial crisis.

After leaving, Warsh became the distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University (in the field of economics) and served as a lecturer at Stanford Business School. He is also a partner at Duquesne Family Office and a board member of UPS and South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang.

Additionally, he is a member of the Congressional Budget Office Economic Advisory Panel and the Group of Thirty (G30), conducting extensive research in economics and finance, including providing independent reports for the Bank of England, recommending monetary policy reforms.

Warsh is viewed as a hawkish figure in monetary policy, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve and inflation control, and has criticized the Fed's loose policies for potentially leading to asset bubbles.

3️⃣ Core Impact:

Kevin Warsh is not a "crypto-friendly" central bank official; he represents a faction that advocates for strong currency, opposes inflation, and is against financialization.

As a hawk, if he leads the Federal Reserve, he may implement tighter monetary policies (such as reducing the balance sheet and raising interest rates), which would reduce market liquidity and negatively impact the crypto market that relies on cheap funding, potentially leading to increased price volatility for assets like Bitcoin.

At the same time, he is also a supporter of Bitcoin; he has publicly stated that Bitcoin "does not make me uneasy" and likened it to "a sustainable store of value," believing that despite its high volatility, it may provide market discipline or serve as an inflation hedge.

Reference: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/is-kevin-warsh-bitcoin-friendly-trumps-rumored-fed-chair-picks-comments-on-crypto-resurface-101769737133553.html

Therefore, I believe this matter should be viewed dialectically:

1) He does not oppose Bitcoin;

2) He emphasizes rules and resists "unlimited bailouts";

3) Most importantly, this is the combination of Kevin Warsh + Trump!

On the Trump administration's side, it is anti-establishment and anti-globalization.

This structural rift historically only drives up one type of asset: non-sovereign, unmanipulable hard assets, which can only be seen in $BTC and gold.

So I have a few points:

1) Significant short-term volatility:

As a hawk, if he leads the Federal Reserve, he may implement tighter monetary policies (such as reducing the balance sheet and raising interest rates), which would reduce market liquidity and negatively impact the crypto market that relies on cheap funding, potentially leading to increased short-term price volatility for assets like Bitcoin.

2) Long-term consolidation of Bitcoin's value:

What truly drives BTC is not liquidity but institutional imbalance + monetary distrust. With Kevin Warsh in power, short-term pressure on risk assets may actually strengthen Bitcoin's existence as a store of value in the long run.

3) Potential pressure on DeFi and meme coin markets:

Kevin Warsh strongly supports Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), particularly the wholesale version of the "digital dollar," to maintain dollar hegemony and financial stability, which may challenge the status of private stablecoins and decentralized cryptocurrencies.

Warsh has criticized cryptocurrencies as "not real money, but software," questioning their reliability as a medium of exchange. Source: http://americanrenewalbook.com

Thus, from the perspective of means and regulation, stablecoins and meme coins may bring regulatory pressure and liquidity challenges.

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