Still, I do not believe that gold can continue to weaken. The data shows that China is massively selling U.S. Treasuries while significantly increasing its gold holdings. This reflects not only market FOMO but is more likely a long-term reallocation of foreign exchange reserves, gradually switching from credit assets with obvious counterparty and policy risks to more neutral, counterparty risk-free hard assets.

Especially in the context of frequent geopolitical conflicts, the weaponization of financial sanctions, and the politicization of the dollar system over the past few years, gold's role is no longer that of a traditional "safe-haven asset," but rather resembles a "credit hedge" at the national level. U.S. Treasuries remain one of the most liquid assets globally; for national reserves, the greatest fear is not short-term volatility but rather being "unable to access them at critical moments," especially for China. Gold, on the other hand, is precisely the type of asset that can bypass counterparty credit.

If central banks around the world continue to purchase gold as a hedge against U.S. Treasuries, then the probability of gold continuing to strengthen is not negligible.

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