On January 29, 2026, during the trading session in the East 8th time zone, Ethereum (ETH) fell below the $2900 mark, experiencing intense fluctuations in the $2850-$2900 range, leading to a comprehensive retreat of mainstream coins and crypto concept stocks. Spot and contract bulls saw their substantial paper profits quickly turn into significant losses, while high-leverage bears and some whales harvested massive profits in the same market wave, creating a stark contrast. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached $617 million, with 187,634 accounts being liquidated. This price drop was no longer just a "K-line adjustment," but a collective clearing that swept both bulls and bears, with some being passively forced out while others seized the opportunity to realize wealth.
The Loss of the $2900 Defense Line: Bulls Go from Celebration to Panic
● The process of breaking below $2900 was not a slow correction, but rather a repeated probing and rapid loss around this key level. After multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through, ETH ultimately fell below $2900 under concentrated selling pressure, quickly dipping to around $2850, forming a typical rhythm of "breakdown - pullback - further pressure." This movement caught many bulls, who had hoped for support, off guard, leading to a surge in stop-loss orders and additional margin requirements, turning the technical level from a "belief anchor" into a panic starting point.
● For many spot and contract bulls who entered at high levels, the cruelty of this market wave lay in the fact that the psychological buffer of paper profits was squeezed to the limit and instantly flipped into losses. Positions that had once been "in the money" were devoured by the market in just a few hours, with optimistic expectations replaced by panic and regret, as many shifted from "let's wait a bit longer for new highs" to "just want to preserve the principal." This psychological reversal led to a combination of active liquidations and passive reductions, further amplifying market selling pressure and resulting in a self-fulfilling panic.
● From a data perspective, the past 24 hours saw a total liquidation of $617 million, with 187,634 people being liquidated. This was not just a few individuals stepping on landmines, but a concentrated break in the leverage chain across the entire market. A large number of bulls were swept clean below critical price levels, and forced liquidation orders continuously slammed into the market, causing prices to accelerate downward. Behind the liquidation numbers was a typical high-leverage bull squeeze: from insufficient margin to being taken over by the system, all emotions were compressed into just a few K-lines of that day.
Bear Whales Reap Huge Rewards: The Cold-Blooded Victory of ETHMegaBear
● In stark contrast to the countless losing bulls scattered across various platforms, some bear whales achieved astonishing profits during this downturn. According to briefing data, a wallet address named ETHMegaBear accumulated profits of approximately $80.9 million during this market wave, becoming one of the most symbolic winners in this volatility. In the time window where bulls collectively suffered heavy losses, such profit figures themselves served as a "wealth transfer certificate" inscribed on the blockchain.
● Ordinary bulls were mostly passively beaten during the decline—adding margin, watching paper profits turn to losses, and ultimately being forced to cut losses or face liquidation; whereas whales like ETHMegaBear, with sufficient capital and strategic capability, could realize profits by pre-positioning short orders and flexibly adjusting positions, harvesting gains in the same wave of volatility. Small accounts of a few tens of thousands could only struggle to survive amid hundreds of points of fluctuation, while funds in the tens of millions could leverage their liquidity advantage to turn this pullback into a systematic wealth transfer.
● Bear whales are not merely a natural result of "standing on the opposite side"; their actions also amplify market volatility. Large short positions and concentrated selling behavior can break through buy walls near key price levels, triggering more follow-on program selling and stop-loss activations. When the market realizes "there's big money shorting," panic expectations quickly heat up, weak hands accelerate their exit, further pushing prices down. The profit case of ETHMegaBear, to some extent, serves as a magnifying glass for the game between whales and liquidity: the more panic there is, the more advantageous it is for those holding chips and ammunition.
Bitcoin's Retreat Combined with Weak U.S. Stocks: Multiple Bearish Factors Accumulate in One Night
● This ETH crash was not an isolated event; Bitcoin's performance during the same period pressed the "risk release" button on market sentiment. Briefing data showed that BTC once touched a high of $85,224 during the day, then retreated, with a 24-hour decline of 4.08%. As a barometer of crypto assets, Bitcoin's retreat from its high quickly transmitted signals to ETH and other mainstream assets, heightening bulls' concerns about whether the "overall bull market structure was loosening," thereby amplifying the psychological pressure of ETH breaking below $2900.
● Alongside the price decline, crypto concept stocks in the U.S. stock market also fell. MSTR dropped 6.88%, COIN fell 4.37%, directly extending the emotional volatility on-chain to the traditional financial market. For institutional funds on the sidelines, the simultaneous weakness of crypto-related stocks and crypto assets reinforced the perception of "overall pressure on risk assets," leading some already hesitant funds to choose to temporarily exit or reduce risk exposure. This cross-market linkage magnified the price fluctuations of a single coin into a visual effect of "the entire sector under pressure."
● More alarmingly, spot gold and silver fell over 2% in a single day, creating a scene where so-called "safe-haven assets" and "high-volatility assets" moved in unison, presenting a picture of global risk assets being squeezed downward. When even gold and silver showed significant corrections, the instinctive reaction of funds was to reduce leverage and shrink risk overall, rather than to counter-trade in high-volatility assets. ETH breaking below $2900 in such a macro context was no longer just an issue of on-chain sentiment, but was incorporated into the larger picture of global liquidity contraction and a decline in risk appetite.
The Backlash of High Leverage: From Wealth Myth to Chain Liquidation in Just One K-Line
● The figure of $617 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours is itself a direct annotation of the leverage effect in extreme market conditions. High-leverage bulls are seen as "wealth accelerators" during uptrends, amplifying profits with a slight tailwind; however, in this downturn, it magnified losses by the same multiple, turning a manageable correction into a systemic clearing. Meanwhile, high-leverage bears gained amplified profits in the same market wave—the fate of both sides entirely depended on market direction, and the risk amplification mechanism treated everyone equally, resulting in extreme divergence in outcomes.
● In this volatility, neither retail investors nor institutions were completely spared. Many retail investors pursued high leverage to chase prices, lacking clear stop-loss discipline, and when the market reversed, they had neither contingency plans nor timely execution to reduce positions, passively watching their margins erode until liquidation. Some institutions or professional funds, under the complexity of products and multi-platform exposures, also faced gaps in risk management: when multiple contracts, loans, and spot positions are interconnected, a directional extreme fluctuation can trigger "chain liquidations," transforming localized losses into a liquidity crisis.
● The high-leverage bull-bear game in extreme market conditions can easily evolve from a price battle into a liquidity war. When prices approach key leverage concentration zones, forced liquidation orders surge, consuming the limited buy or sell orders on the table, leading to an instant collapse in depth. Insufficient liquidity, in turn, amplifies slippage, triggering more margin insufficiencies and failed margin calls, creating a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop. On the day ETH broke below $2900, both bulls and bears appeared to be "betting on direction," but in reality, the entire market was testing the limits of liquidity with leverage as the rope.
Regulatory Signals and Market Bloodbath: The Imagination of 401(k) vs. the Reality of the Contrast
● More dramatically, against the backdrop of severe price fluctuations, U.S. regulators released signals leaning towards "long-term benefits." SEC Chairman Paul Atkins publicly stated, "Now is the time to allow the inclusion of crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts." The potential implication of this statement is to view crypto assets as a type of investment that can enter the mainstream pension system, opening up expectations for traditional long-term funds to participate in the market. However, the relatively friendly regulatory stance starkly contrasts with the bloody K-lines during the same period.
● On one side is the regulatory discourse about compliance, inclusion in retirement plans, and future long-term asset allocation; on the other side is the brutal reality of $617 million in liquidations and over 180,000 accounts being liquidated within 24 hours. For bulls suffering from paper losses, this image of "policy benefits and price crashes coexisting" not only failed to provide comfort but also reinforced a sense of powerlessness: even if the macro narrative seems more optimistic, short-term cash flow and leverage positions are the true variables determining fate.
● From a longer-term perspective, if traditional pension funds like 401(k) gradually allow the allocation of crypto assets in the future, it will inevitably reshape the balance of power between bulls and bears. Long-term funds typically prefer low leverage, diversification, and stable allocation, which means that the forces of "passive buying + long-term holding" will strengthen in the future market, potentially providing thicker support for prices during extreme conditions. However, short-term high-leverage speculation will still exist, and the game between whales and institutions in the derivatives market will not disappear; the entry of traditional funds is more like adding a layer of "long-term foundation" to the arena, rather than immediately changing the current volatility structure.
Moving from This Crash to the Next Round: Rebuilding a Sense of Rules Under the Shadow of Whales
This time, ETH breaking below $2900 exposed not just a simple technical failure, but the entire market's high dependence on leverage and sentiment. Prices had just departed from high levels, and bulls faced widespread liquidations, indicating that a significant portion of funds was built on short-term speculation and fragile margin foundations. Once external risks and internal whale behaviors overlapped, prices only needed one key K-line to plunge many participants from "paper wealth" into the abyss of passive clearing.
For ordinary participants, in a structure dominated by whales and institutions, the space for survival has not naturally disappeared, but the risk control bottom line needs to be redefined. Avoiding extreme leverage, preventing excessive concentration of funds in a single direction, and reserving liquidity for worst-case scenarios are necessary prerequisites for long-term existence in this market. Whales can repeatedly harvest profits in up and down fluctuations using their capital and information advantages, while retail investors and small institutions can only strive to avoid standing on the most vulnerable side through discipline and rhythm.
Looking ahead to the next market wave, under the backdrop of a marginally warming regulatory attitude and gradually approaching expectations from traditional funds, the structure of the crypto market is expected to trend towards "two-tiered": the bottom layer represented by retirement funds and institutional allocations providing more stable holdings and buffers; the upper layer still consists of high-leverage, fast in-and-out derivatives speculation, maintaining the characteristic of high price volatility. For all participants, the key to moving out of this crash is not to wait for the next surge, but to first complete self-upgrades in rules and risk control, ensuring that when the next wave of volatility arrives, they still have chips to sit at the table.
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