In early 2026, the World Gold Council released the latest annual Global Gold Demand Trends Report, characterizing 2025 as a "breakthrough year" for the gold market. The report indicates that both demand and supply have reached unprecedented levels in the global gold market: total demand and total supply both hit 5002 tons, setting historical records. Among these, investment demand soared to 2175 tons, becoming the core engine driving demand. This surge is not merely a result of price speculation but reflects collective anxiety over economic prospects, inflation shadows, and geopolitical frictions, which have been amplified layer by layer in an environment of accumulating uncertainty, ultimately manifesting in gold positions.
5002 Tons of Demand: A Magnifying Glass for Risk Aversion
● Sense of capital volume: In 2025, global gold total demand surged to 5002 tons, translating to an annual demand scale of approximately $555 billion according to the World Gold Council's standards. This is not a short-term impulse from speculative funds but a "great migration" across regions and asset allocation frameworks, equivalent to global capital using hundreds of billions of dollars in real gold to purchase a massive "insurance policy" for a future full of variables, thereby repositioning gold back to the center stage of global asset pricing.
● Structural role of investment demand: Within this total demand of 5002 tons, investment demand reached 2175 tons, no longer a marginal player but the dominant force driving the curve. This segment of investment demand encompasses various types of allocations both on and off exchanges, reflecting a trend: shifting from traditional consumption and jewelry orientation to an increasing focus on risk aversion and asset defense logic, with gold being systematically embedded into larger asset portfolios.
● "Risk as the new normal": Several analysts interpreting this report highlighted "economic and geopolitical risks as the new normal" as a key phrase. In the past, panic often corresponded to short-term shocks, but the data from 2025 reveals a different pattern: weak economic growth prospects, incomplete inflation suppression, and recurring regional conflicts have compounded these factors, making risk aversion no longer a transient surge but a continuously rising "background noise," persistently pushing capital towards gold, a relatively straightforward yet widely trusted safe haven.
Increased Supply from Mines and Recycling: The Supply Side Also Leverages Panic
● Mild increase at "historical highs": The report shows that global gold total supply in 2025 was 5002 tons, a year-on-year increase of only 1%. In terms of growth rate, this is merely a gentle shift, but in absolute terms, it marks an unprecedented high for the supply side. The apparent "1%" conceals the reality: in an era of high uncertainty, the industry is striving to respond to demand at near full capacity, and the extreme elevation of supply itself is a passive response to the explosion of risk aversion demand.
● Dual drivers of mines and recycling: Breaking it down, gold mine production reached 3672 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with traditional mining using time and capital for limited expansion; while recycled gold supply reached 1404 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, significantly outpacing mine production growth. The faster recycling growth indicates that, under the dual stimulation of price and risk expectations, existing gold is being "awakened" and entering the market at an accelerated pace, whether from old gold in personal hands or inventory held by institutions, all being repriced and released to meet the surging demand from investors.
● Fourth quarter snapshot: As a microcosm of the year's sentiment, gold supply in the fourth quarter reached 1303 tons, including 958 tons from gold mines and 366 tons from recycled gold. During the most sensitive time window of the year, the supply side operated almost at "full throttle": mining companies worked hard to maintain high output, and recycling channels operated frequently, attempting to accommodate the frenzied buying from end investors without triggering supply imbalances. This high-level operation reflects not a relaxed prosperity but a passive following of demand-side anxiety.
From Panic to "New Normal": Gold Written into Long-term Asset Defense
● Macroeconomic backdrop of sustained risk aversion: The gold data from 2025 is not merely a remnant of a single crisis but a result of multiple pressures. Global economic growth momentum is weak, inflation, although receding, remains persistent, and regional frictions and security issues are constantly evolving, turning traditional "risk events" into a background noise akin to normalcy. In such a macro environment, risk aversion no longer spikes briefly during extreme moments but forms a stable and continuous "chronic pull."
● Temporal shift in investment mindset: Under the framework of "economic and geopolitical risks as the new normal," investors' thinking has quietly changed. Many funds have shifted from the past logic of "rapidly increasing gold positions during a conflict escalation or data shock" to viewing gold as a strategic allocation tool to cope with long-term uncertainties. Buying actions are no longer solely centered around news headlines but revolve around balance sheets, family wealth continuity, and institutional portfolio risk resilience.
● From temporary safe haven to long-term firewall: In traditional narratives, "holding gold bricks in times of crisis" portrays gold as a temporary lifeline to grasp during storms. However, current data tells a different story: an increasing number of investors no longer only think of gold when the eye of the storm appears but actively incorporate it into their long-term asset defense, viewing it as a fundamental component to hedge against institutional volatility, currency credit deterioration, and extreme tail risks. This shift in perception is a deep-seated driver behind the simultaneous surges in 5002 tons of demand and 2175 tons of investment demand.
Traditional Finance in Flux: When Gold and Paper Assets Face Opposing Sentiments
● Report release timing and macro fluctuations: The report released by the World Gold Council in 2025 coincides with a macro environment full of contradictions: on one hand, the stock and bond markets are repeatedly oscillating under policy support and recovery narratives, attempting to tell the story of "soft landings" and "growth returns"; on the other hand, monetary credit is under scrutiny due to multiple rounds of easing, high debt levels, and fiscal constraints. The sharp fluctuations in financial assets and the marginal erosion of monetary trust compel capital to rethink "what basis" to price risk and safety, leading to a revaluation of gold.
● Price mirror of emotional misalignment: In this context, a subtle misalignment has emerged between gold and mainstream financial assets: capital markets crave a recovery story and need optimistic sentiment to sustain valuations, while the risks in reality are continually approaching, prompting more and more funds to quietly increase their positions in gold and other tangible, anchored assets beyond "paper optimism." On one side is the emotional repair playing out in the stock and bond markets, while on the other side is the cold defensive demand behind gold positions, creating an invisible opposition at the asset allocation level.
● Hedging against "systemic errors": Amid this misalignment, some institutions and high-net-worth individuals are beginning to move beyond merely "hedging inflation" as a single label, viewing gold as a foundational asset to hedge against "systemic errors"—including policy misjudgments, fluctuations in the monetary system, and extreme financial events, which are rare but have far-reaching consequences. In their asset portfolios, gold is no longer just a hedge against macro volatility but a foundational component that retains value even when cracks appear in the entire financial structure.
Hidden Risks in the Silver Market and Delivery Anxiety: Further Upgrading the Risk Aversion Narrative
● Single-source silver delivery warning: In the market discussions of 2025, a highly concerning but yet-to-be-verified piece of information emerged: a warning of potential silver delivery defaults on COMEX in March 2026. This claim currently comes from a single source and has not received broader data or official confirmation, so its authenticity and specific impact still require further observation. However, the mere suggestion of "delivery defaults" is enough to sow seeds of unease in the market.
● Trust amplifier of delivery turmoil: If this delivery turmoil indeed evolves into a real event, its direct consequence will not only be the failure of delivery for a specific commodity but also a trust shock to the entire paper contract system—especially in the commodity derivatives market. Investors will reassess the fundamental premise of "holding a contract equals holding the underlying asset," and any doubts about this premise will force some capital to withdraw from the contract world, shifting towards asset forms with more tangible support and clearer delivery chains.
● Renewed preference for physical precious metals: In this hypothetical scenario, delivery risks will not only increase demand for physical silver but also further elevate preferences and imaginative space for physical precious metals, especially gold. Compared to certain commodities with higher leverage and more complex market structures, gold has a more mature spot market and deeper reserve consensus globally. Once trust in the paper system shows cracks, the question of "whether one has real metal in hand" will shift from a technical issue to an emotional one, and gold's actual deliverability and global liquidity may be assigned a higher premium.
From "Breakthrough Year" to a New Gold Narrative
The "breakthrough" report of 2025 presents a gold market where both demand and supply hit new highs simultaneously: 5002 tons of demand, 5002 tons of supply, achieving near alignment on paper, but behind it lies a massive "insurance premium" paid by global capital for an uncertain era. The mining and recycling sectors are operating at high levels, with investment demand reaching a historical high of 2175 tons, forming the core annotation of the gold market for that year.
Looking ahead to the next few years, there are significant divergences in the market: some viewpoints suggest that gold will continue to play its traditional role as a "cyclical risk-hedging tool," performing similar scripts during each macro or geopolitical shock; while others argue that as economic and geopolitical risks are defined as the "new normal," gold is gradually transitioning from a hedge against short-term shocks to a foundational element of long-term asset allocation, with its weight in sovereign reserves, institutional portfolios, and personal wealth potentially undergoing structural re-evaluation.
Looking further ahead, geopolitical situations, monetary policies, and delivery risks will jointly shape the next round of gold narratives: geopolitical situations will set the tone for risk perception, monetary policies will influence the balance of nominal yields and currency credit, while delivery risks, including those related to silver, may trigger market recognition differences between paper systems and physical assets. Amid the interplay of these three forces, gold may no longer just be an old role remembered in crises but could gain a more central and contentious long-term script in the new global asset order.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
