On January 28, 2026, the price of Bitcoin experienced intense fluctuations near the cost basis on multiple key chains, repeatedly approaching the support zone of $80,000 to $83,400, causing the overall market sentiment to be highly tense. On-chain data indicates that the real market average price is about $80,700, while the average price for active investors is about $87,500, which is currently sandwiched between the spot price of approximately $87,300. Above this, there is a heavy entrapment zone formed by the short-term holder cost basis of about $96,500, creating a fragile sandwich structure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $19.64 million in a single day, while Ethereum ETFs attracted a net inflow of about $28.09 million. Coupled with gold reaching new highs against a backdrop of a weakening dollar, this has created greater pressure for off-market fund diversion. This article will analyze the current consolidation's pullback risks and potential reversal conditions from three dimensions: on-chain costs, capital flows, and market structure.
Pressure Zone Surrounded by Three Cost Lines
● Layered Cost Bands: In the current on-chain structure, the STH cost basis of about $96,500 forms a clear short-term entrapment zone above, while the real market average price of about $80,700 provides the last line of on-chain defense below. This top-down cost distribution means that once the price approaches the upper boundary, funds that entered at previous highs are more inclined to reduce their positions at higher prices, while breaking below the lower boundary may trigger a deeper round of chip turnover, making the market particularly sensitive to each test of this range.
● Active Investor Game: According to Glassnode data, the current spot price is about $87,300, slightly above the average price for active investors of about $87,500, indicating that marginal buying pressure is slightly dominant, but the advantage is very limited. The price fluctuating around the cost of active investors represents that short-term funds are still repeatedly testing the waters. If buying pressure slightly retreats, the current price may fall back below the cost line, quickly shifting active funds' sentiment to a defensive stance.
● Chain Reaction of Breaking the Central Point: If the price falls below the average price for active investors, short-term funds will face concentrated unrealized loss pressure, increasing the motivation for stop-loss and active position reduction. As the price further approaches the real market average price area of about $80,700, on-chain long and short cycle chips may undergo deeper redistribution, and some long-term holders may be forced to participate in turnover, amplifying price volatility and significantly increasing the risk of a technical pullback evolving into a structural adjustment.
● Caution in Key Intervals: The Glassnode report emphasizes that the $80,700 to $83,400 range constitutes a critically important on-chain support area for the current cycle. If effectively broken, it may open up deeper pullback space. This range not only serves as a buyer's defense line near the real market average price but also overlaps with a significant amount of historical transactions and emotional anchor points. A break below often signifies the invalidation of previous high-level consolidation, requiring the market to reprice at a lower valuation level.
Short-Term Holders on the Edge of Profit and Loss
● Critical Profit and Loss State: The current price continues to operate below the STH cost basis of $96,500, meaning that most recently entered short-term funds are under varying degrees of paper pressure. In the absence of significant new high expectations, this widespread unrealized loss state will elevate the probability of short-term selling pressure, making each rebound more like an opportunity for liquidation rather than a solid foundation for a new trend to start.
● Cost Concentrated at High Levels: From the cost distribution perspective, a large amount of short-term chips is piled up above $90,000, making this price range a dual pressure zone of psychology and capital. Even if the current price fluctuates in the $80,000 range, it is difficult to fully repair the psychological trauma of previous high chasing, leading many short-term holders to view rebounds as opportunities to reduce positions rather than signals for additional buying, resulting in sustained selling pressure from above over time.
● Expectation-Driven Rush to Sell: As the price gradually approaches the real market average price of about $80,700, short-term chips often amplify expectations of downside risk. Once the mainstream market narrative shifts from "high-level oscillation" to "cyclical pullback," short-term funds may choose to sell early to avoid deeper declines. This rush to sell behavior compresses the time the price stays above the support zone, increasing the probability of spikes and rapid volume sell-offs.
● Data Boundary Constraints: In analyzing the situation and behavioral logic of short-term holders, this article only qualitatively deduces based on cost structure and price position, without citing any specific loss ratio figures. Relevant precise ratio data has not been sufficiently verified in the current study, and to avoid misleading conclusions, it is emphasized that STH is overall in a fragile state without touching on specific percentage descriptions.
ETF Transition from Frenzy to Calm Capital Positioning
● Capital Flow Switching: According to SoSoValue data, on the latest statistical day, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $19.6449 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of about $28.0951 million, indicating a clear shift in allocation focus. This differentiation suggests that institutional funds are not completely withdrawing from crypto assets but are reallocating some funds to the relatively more attractive valuation and growth potential of the Ethereum sector during Bitcoin's high-level consolidation phase.
● From Unilateral Buying to Neutral Observation: The 30-day average of Bitcoin ETF capital flow has returned to a neutral range from a previous strong net inflow, indicating that sentiment is gradually cooling from a frenzy stage. Institutions are no longer passively increasing positions at high levels but are entering a period of observation and reassessment. This change weakens the ETF's role as a "continuous buying support" for spot prices, making it easier for the spot market to amplify price pullbacks amid emotional fluctuations.
● Rotation Rather Than Withdrawal: The rotation of funds between Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two major assets, resembles a rebalancing at the allocation level rather than a complete abandonment of crypto assets. For long-term funds, Bitcoin's relative value decreases as it approaches historical high-level oscillation, while Ethereum and other assets begin to take on some risk preference as regulations and products gradually improve, weakening Bitcoin's exclusive liquidity advantage.
● Conditions for Support and Protection: If Bitcoin's price further declines, approaching the on-chain key support zone of $80,700 to $83,400, but ETF capital flow remains neutral or even turns into a mild net inflow, then ETF buying may play the role of "protector" at critical price levels. Conversely, if the price drops towards the support zone while accompanied by continued net outflows from ETFs, it indicates that institutions are still reducing positions, and the probability of the support zone being pierced and triggering deeper adjustments will significantly increase.
Derivative Leverage and Gamma Amplifying Downward Risks
● Shift in Sentiment: Changes in the options market structure indicate that volatility and skew are gradually shifting from a previously neutral range towards a bearish direction, although specific values await further verification. Some traders are increasingly buying put options or using structured strategies to hedge against downside risks, reflecting a cooling confidence among derivative participants regarding the current price range, with rising skepticism about the sustainability of unilateral upward movements.
● Amplifying Effect of Negative Gamma: Some viewpoints suggest that when the price is below $90,000, certain key ranges' Gamma may turn negative, significantly amplifying volatility when the price breaks below certain technical and on-chain key levels. At this point, market makers and hedgers, in order to manage risk, may passively sell the underlying or adjust positions, exacerbating daily price fluctuations, making the downward path no longer a smooth linear decline but more akin to a "stair-step decline."
● Passive Hedging Creating Extreme Volatility: If Bitcoin oscillates for an extended period in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, with a large number of options and perpetual contract positions concentrated near the execution price, passive hedging behavior may amplify price volatility in a short time. When the spot price breaks through or falls below key thresholds, the strong forced liquidations, position reductions, and hedging on the derivatives side will magnify extreme values on both profit and loss sides, making the market prone to "spikes" or V-shaped reversals.
● Data Description Boundaries: For the sake of data integrity and compliance, this article only provides directional risk descriptions in the derivatives section, without offering any specific Gamma distribution, Delta exposure, or perpetual contract funding rates. Current public information remains more at the structural and emotional level, lacking sufficiently detailed quantitative support. Recklessly providing specific levels may lead to misinterpretation; therefore, a qualitative framework is deliberately maintained in the analysis.
Gold Reaches New Highs, Bitcoin Loses Some Safe-Haven Appeal
● Diverging Performance: Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, gold and some commodities have reached historical new highs, while Bitcoin remains in a high-level consolidation state, unable to sustain its previous unilateral upward momentum. This comparison challenges the narrative of "digital gold" in the short term, as the strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets compresses Bitcoin's voice and allocation ratio in macro configurations.
● Shift in Safe-Haven Narrative: The so-called "new bond king," Gundlach, pointed out that the dollar has not been a traditional safe-haven currency for some time, providing a new narrative basis for the rise of gold and commodities. Funds are more inclined to hedge currency risks by buying physical assets and commodities rather than relying solely on dollar assets, which has reestablished gold as the preferred safe-haven anchor in the current macro environment.
● Role of High-Elasticity Risk Assets: In an environment where safe-haven demand is increasingly absorbed by gold and commodities, Bitcoin's market positioning is closer to a high-elasticity risk asset rather than a primary safe-haven tool. Significant price volatility at high levels, consistency with the risk appetite of tech stocks, and sensitivity to liquidity conditions have led some institutions to view it as an "enhanced yield component" rather than a "safe-haven base," further weakening its defensive attributes during macro volatility.
● Relative Value Game: As macro funds make relative value choices between gold and crypto assets, the risk premium space for Bitcoin at current price levels is further compressed. When gold continues to reach new highs while Bitcoin struggles to break previous highs, incremental funds are more likely to choose assets with relatively safe valuations and more controllable pullback risks, meaning Bitcoin must offer more attractive return expectations or release risk premiums through price pullbacks to attract a new round of allocations.
Fragile Balance Yet to Break, Both Bulls and Bears Await Direction
● Tug-of-War on the Profit and Loss Divide: Comprehensive on-chain cost data shows that the STH entrapment zone from above and the real market average price defense zone from below form a narrow and critical price corridor. The current price is just stuck near the profit and loss divide for active investors, and even slight fluctuations can change the profit and loss status of a large number of chips, causing market sentiment to quickly switch between bulls and bears, reinforcing the suddenness of trend selection.
● Characteristics of Structural Balance: ETF capital flows have transitioned from a previous unilateral net inflow phase to a structural rotation, while derivative sentiment has gradually shifted towards defense and hedging, resonating to create a typical "high-level fragile balance." Bulls have not been completely crushed and still expect a new round of macro benefits or liquidity release; bears are also observing whether the key support zone will be breached, hesitant to make heavy bets on a collapse, with both sides waiting for clearer directional signals to emerge.
● Bullish Path Hypothesis: If the key on-chain support zone of $80,700 to $83,400 is effectively defended, and ETF capital flows shift from neutral to significant net inflows, Bitcoin is expected to complete a time-for-space digestion process at high levels. As the entrapment positions gradually clear and the short-term holders' mindset repairs, the price may evolve into a re-attack structure after high-level box oscillation, providing a window for a new round of assaults on previous highs or even refreshing historical peaks.
● Bearish Scenario Warning: Conversely, if the price breaks below the area near the real market average price under increased volume, combined with the amplifying effect of negative Gamma and concentrated selling pressure from short-term holders, the market may enter a deeper cyclical pullback phase. In this scenario, Bitcoin's valuation system will need to seek balance at lower price levels, with the passive deleveraging of bullish positions and the overall repricing of risk assets becoming core risk variables that must be addressed in the short to medium term.
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