Bitcoin rebounded to around 90,500 during yesterday's trading but encountered selling pressure, failing to maintain its upward momentum. The price has now fallen back below 89,000, with the rebound strength significantly weakened. Similarly, Ethereum's performance has also been relatively weak, rebounding to around 3,050 before retreating, and the current price has returned below 3,000, with overall trends under pressure.
In the early morning hours, the Federal Reserve announced as expected that it would keep interest rates unchanged and pause its previous rate-cutting pace. The market generally believes that this interest rate decision will not have a significant impact on the market. However, the weakening of rate cut expectations has also dampened the sentiment for a rebound in the cryptocurrency market, intensifying cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly the tense relationship between the U.S. and Iran, as well as market funds flowing into safe-haven assets like gold, further weakening the upward momentum of the cryptocurrency market.
Macroeconomic Analysis: Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged, Geopolitics Boost Safe-Haven Sentiment
In the early morning Federal Reserve interest rate decision, although the Fed maintained the interest rate range of 3.50%–3.75% and paused rate cuts, this news was within market expectations and did not provoke an excessive market reaction. However, more importantly, the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged has suppressed the rebound sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, and the probability of rate cuts before May has decreased, which has also intensified cautious sentiment in the market, especially in the context of a strong dollar and economic uncertainty.
At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical risks is a significant driver of rising gold prices. The tension between the U.S. and Iran and Trump's rhetoric have led investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold, further weakening the capital momentum in the crypto market. In this context, the market lacks new positive stimuli, liquidity has decreased, leading to a narrowing of the volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Under Pressure at 89,000, May Decline Again in the Short Term
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of Bitcoin shows that the price has encountered significant resistance near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 91,000, failing to break upward. The MACD volume on the four-hour chart continues to weaken, and the RSI indicator is trending downward, indicating a lack of upward momentum in the market, and further downward pressure may be faced in the short term. Nevertheless, the 88,000 area may still serve as a short-term support level, and it is expected that Bitcoin's price will receive temporary support when it reaches this area.
Short-term Support: Currently, 88,000 is a key support level for Bitcoin. If the price breaks below this support, it is expected to test the strong support in the 87,000 area again. If this support is breached, the price may enter a deeper correction zone.
Short-term Resistance: The upper resistance levels remain around 90,000 and 90,500. If the price breaks through these resistance zones and stabilizes, it may push Bitcoin to rise again and further test the resistance near 91,000.
Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation pattern, and attention should be paid to the support situation near 88,000 in the short term, which will be crucial in determining the next price movement.
Ethereum: Significant Pullback Pressure, Price Still Under Pressure at 3,000
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's trend is also under significant pressure. The middle band of the daily chart currently poses strong resistance to the price, which has retreated again after reaching this position. Technical indicators on the four-hour and hourly charts are showing bearish signals, with both RSI and MACD trending downward. In the short term, Ethereum faces considerable pullback pressure.
Short-term Resistance: The short-term resistance levels above are in the 3,050 and 3,100 areas, which are the previous high points of Ethereum's rebound. If the rebound cannot break through these areas, there will be significant upward pressure.
Short-term Support: The support below is concentrated around the four-hour middle band near 2,950. If the price breaks below this support area, it is expected to further test the support strength in the 2,900-2,870 region. If this support fails, the price may decline further.
Ethereum's short-term rebound momentum is insufficient, and market sentiment is low, which may continue to face the risk of downward pressure.
Market Sentiment: Reduced Volatility, Focus on Initial Jobless Claims Data
Currently, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is relatively subdued, lacking strong market signals and capital flow, with volatility being relatively small, and the market continues to maintain a weak consolidation pattern. In the short term, market sentiment is cautious, and investors should remain flexible in their operations and avoid blindly chasing prices.
During the day, everyone can pay attention to the weak consolidation range rhythm of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The release of initial jobless claims data tonight is also worth noting, as economic data may impact market sentiment, and price fluctuations in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies may also amplify accordingly. The performance during the U.S. trading session also needs attention, as it may guide the price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jayne Crypto (follow the official account: Jayne Crypto) and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only. For more real-time guidance, please contact me!
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