Cryptocurrency News
January 28 Hot Topics:
1. Tether announces the launch of USA₮, a dollar-backed stablecoin that is federally regulated and made in the USA.
2. Chainalysis: The scale of on-chain crypto money laundering has surged from about $10 billion in 2020 to over $82 billion by 2025.
3. Royal Bank of Canada: Gold still has "upside potential"; believes gold prices could reach $7,100 per ounce.
4. SharpLink earned staking rewards of 465 ETH last week.
5. Nomura's Laser Digital applies for a national trust bank license in the U.S.
Trading Insights
I. On Waiting (The Waiting)
"Trading is mostly boring. If you find it exciting, then you're losing money."
Don't stare at the screen all day. Grabbing the screen will make it glare back at you and consume you. A good hunter spends most of his time waiting. He waits for the wind to change, for the prey to lower its head to drink. Don't fixate on the market. Let the market crash into you like a clueless drunk. When you have nothing to do, do nothing. Being in cash is also a position.
II. On Stop Loss (The Cut)
"Stop loss is your only friend. Although this friend may sometimes bite you."
Have the courage to admit mistakes. Most people lack courage. Watching losses grow is like watching a wound rot, praying for a miracle. Miracles don't happen. Bad toes do. When you're wrong, cut it off immediately. Don't worry. Don't patch it up. Pay the bill, try to learn a lesson, and then strive for honor. As long as the green mountains remain, there's no fear of running out of firewood.
III. On Leverage (The Leverage)
"Leverage is borrowed courage. It is not yours."
In that crappy contract market, leverage is like low-quality drugs. It makes you feel invincible, smarter than the market. But it will give you a splitting headache when you're sober. Bet with what you can afford to lose. If a trade keeps you up at night, you're betting too big. You can only win when you can sleep.
IV. On News and Noise (The Noise)
"Don't listen to them. They sell newspapers, not truth."
In this circle, some are peddling news, some analyzing charts, and some bragging about insider information. Plug your ears. Just look at two things: price and volume. Price is fact. Volume is power. Everything else, like macro analysis or institutional upgrades, is usually a lie or a smokescreen for retreat.
V. On Nature (The Sea)
"The market is like the sea. It is not cruel; it is just indifferent."
Don't be angry at the market. Don't try to take revenge on Bitcoin. It doesn't care about you. It doesn't even know you exist. If you get knocked over by a wave, it's because you didn't see the tide coming, or your boat was too broken. Accept it. Clean your wounds. Set sail again.
VI. On Respect for the Unknown (The Respect for the Unknown)
"Only fools believe they can master every candlestick. The wise know that when the wind rises, it is not determined by the weather station, but by the sea."
Sometimes, you buy not because of a MACD golden cross, but because the coffee that morning tasted just right, or the wind outside changed direction. Is this called metaphysics? No, this is called animal instinct. In the jungle, the longest-lived are not the strongest, but those most attuned to danger.
VII. On Metaphysical Trading
"There's no need to rush the sunrise. What is meant to come will come. This is metaphysics, and Bitcoin is the same. It has its own timetable."
Don't ridicule metaphysics. Those who try to use it to guess the next minute's rise and fall are just using a holy grail to hold urine. They don't understand the Dao; they are just blinded by greed, and like the news from before, they are not speaking the truth.
This is all my insights. There is nothing magical about facing the public; only discipline and the elegance of this cold, harsh reality.
LIFE IS LIKE A JOURNEY ▲
Below are the real trading group orders from the Big White Community this week. Congratulations to the friends who followed along. If your operations are not going well, you can come and test the waters.
The data is real, and each order has a screenshot from the time it was sent.
**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks Coins*
Bilibili and YouTube account: Daquan 777
BTC
Analysis
The U.S. dollar index has fallen to around 95.76, reaching a low point since 2022 and hitting a key point for dollar strength. Next, we need to see whether the U.S. government will intervene or let it be!
With the decline of the dollar index, the prices of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have risen, and gold continues to rise, showing typical signs of short-term dollar asset sell-offs. If the Japanese government does not continue to support U.S. Treasuries, the situation may worsen.
Next, the previous strong situation of stocks, bonds, and currencies no longer exists. We need to see who the U.S. government will protect. According to Trump's policies, the most likely scenario is to protect U.S. stocks, while also coordinating with fiscal measures and other overseas buyers like Japan to support U.S. Treasuries, while the Treasury and the Federal Reserve intervene to slow down the accelerated weakening of the dollar.
Once the dollar index effectively breaks below 96 and enters a weak dollar phase, it means that the macro direction may shift from a monetary dimension to a fiscal dimension, increasing the situation of dollar asset sell-offs, putting more pressure on the bond market. The U.S. government's deficit structure has not been fully improved, and the supply of government bonds remains large, with inflation tail risks still present. Under these comprehensive factors, stocks, bonds, and currencies must choose selective support. Of course, whether we officially enter a weak dollar phase will depend on whether support or a rebound can form around 96. If it effectively breaks below 96, it indicates the arrival of a weak dollar phase.
A pullback to around 87,730-86,500 can be a buying opportunity, with a rebound target looking towards 89,200-90,200. A rebound to 89,400-89,800 can be a short opportunity, and around 90,400-90,800 can be a chance to add positions, with a target looking towards 87,700-86,500.
ETH
Analysis
In the early morning, Trump mentioned his views on the dollar in a speech, stating that the dollar is currently performing well and still has high value, while also indicating that China and Japan have been keeping their exchange rates lower.
Trump believes that the depreciation of the dollar is not significant, and that the current decline is seeking its balance point. He also expressed confidence in controlling the rise and fall of the dollar at any time.
From this statement, it can be seen that Trump acknowledges and hopes for the depreciation of the dollar, as a weaker dollar helps U.S. exports. If Trump's views represent the current views of the Trump administration, it means that the U.S. Treasury will not intervene in the depreciation, while the Federal Reserve's intervention in the dollar is essentially weaker than that of the Treasury. However, we still cannot ignore that Powell may verbally intervene and manage expectations.
A weaker dollar is beneficial for non-dollar assets, with gold rising 3.43% in a day, increasing by over $170 significantly. However, this does not mean it is 100% beneficial for the risk market.
For example, in a weaker dollar environment, if dollar assets cannot generate enough liquidity attraction, they may lose liquidity, leading to liquidity overflow globally. Here, we need to see if the sustainability of the AI narrative in U.S. stocks is strong enough. Additionally, if Powell makes hawkish statements that suppress interest rate cut expectations, how the risk market reacts is also an important question.
Of course, a weaker dollar is a marginal benefit for growth stocks and long-duration assets, but it may not be beneficial for financial companies and those reliant on cycles and a strong dollar, which could weaken them.
As for crypto assets, whether a weaker dollar is beneficial for crypto is also not a certainty. For BTC, there is indeed a non-dollar asset benefit, but there are still risks associated with emerging high-beta assets. We need to see what BTC's attributes align with in the future: non-dollar attributes or risk asset attributes.
A pullback to around 2,942-2,916 can be a buying opportunity, with 2,877 being a chance to add positions, and a rebound target looking towards 3,015-3,060.
Disclaimer: The above content is purely personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
