From January 20 to 25, 2026, Strategy made a move while Bitcoin was fluctuating around the $90,000 range, investing $264.1 million to purchase 2,932 BTC. This action, taken in a high sentiment cautious area, drew significant market attention. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of Tether Gold (XAUt), which is pegged to physical gold, surpassed $4 billion during the same period, capturing about 60% of the gold token market share, supported by 520,000 ounces of LBMA standard gold as reserves. One represents institutional funds betting heavily on Bitcoin at high levels, while the other reflects a rapid expansion of risk-averse demand through gold tokens. When appreciating assets and defensive assets are both bought on a large scale, the more critical question becomes: what future risk structure and asset orientation is capital betting on in the current cycle?

Aggressive Buying by Institutions in the $90,000 Range

● Trading Range and Price Position: According to public data, Strategy's buying activity was concentrated from January 20 to 25, during which Bitcoin fluctuated around the $90,000 high. They purchased 2,932 BTC for $264.1 million, with an average transaction price of approximately $90,061 per BTC. This price is clearly at the high end of the current market, reflecting a typical "buying after a breakout" behavior, indicating that institutions believe there is considerable room above the current price level, rather than a short-term speculative mindset.

● Historical Holdings and Rhythm Comparison: After the increase, Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings rose to 712,647 BTC, with a cumulative investment of about $54.19 billion, translating to an average holding cost of approximately $76,000 per BTC. Compared to historical rhythms, this institution did not significantly reduce its holdings during high volatility phases; instead, it repeatedly increased its positions during price rises, showing an overall trend of "buying more as prices rise," emphasizing long-term allocation and scale effects rather than frequent timing.

● Floating Profit Space and Drawdown Pressure: With the current price around $90,000, a rough estimate shows that Strategy's overall position has a floating profit space of about 18% relative to the average cost of $76,000. After continuing to increase positions at high levels, the new positions are more sensitive to price drawdowns. However, under the premise of diluting costs with a large amount of low-cost holdings, even if the price undergoes a deep adjustment, the overall position remains resilient. This structural floating profit is an advantage that retail investors find hard to replicate.

Counter-Cyclical Implications of Not Reducing Holdings During High Fluctuations

● Counter-Trend Operations in a Cautious Sentiment Background: Market sentiment generally believes that the upward slope of Bitcoin around $90,000 has clearly slowed, with increased volatility and heightened divergence, leading most short-term funds to choose to reduce risk exposure. In this cautious environment, Strategy's counter-increase reflects an intention of "counter-cyclical positioning" — not anchored by short-term sentiment but based on its valuation model and macro judgment.

● Allocation Logic of Large Funds: For institutions managing hundreds of billions of dollars, Bitcoin is not just a trading target but also a long-term asset allocation and currency hedging tool. In a global liquidity cycle where uncertainties in the traditional monetary system have not been eliminated, locking a portion of assets in Bitcoin, which has high liquidity, global pricing, and rigid supply, serves as a structural hedge against fiat currency depreciation and macro black swans, rather than merely speculating on the next price range.

● Differences in Time Dimensions Between Institutions and Retail Investors: Retail investors prefer short-term high leverage and high-frequency trading, with profits and losses largely driven by intraday volatility; institutions focus on average cost curves and multi-year return dimensions. Even when increasing positions at $90,000, Strategy's overall holding cost remains around $76,000, and its advantages in funding sources, risk control, and holding periods allow it to endure longer periods of sideways movement and drawdowns, thus obtaining greater β returns in trending markets.

The Tether Gold Effect as Gold Tokens Surge to $4 Billion

● Market Size Tripling: According to briefing data, the overall market size of gold tokens expanded from about $1.3 billion in 2025 to $4 billion in less than a year, achieving nearly threefold growth. This growth rate far exceeds that of traditional gold ETFs and most crypto assets, reflecting a rapid increase in demand for "on-chain transferable safe-haven assets" in the latter half of a high-volatility crypto bull market.

● Monopoly-Level Share of Tether Gold: In this round of expansion, Tether Gold (XAUt) firmly holds a dominant position with about 60% market share, corresponding to approximately 520,000 ounces of LBMA standard gold reserves. Its scale not only dwarfs other similar gold token projects but also establishes itself as a de facto "benchmark asset" in the on-chain gold sector, creating strong demonstration and crowding-out effects for subsequent projects.

● Amplification of the Safety Narrative: Tether has publicly emphasized that "Tether Gold reserves exceed those of several sovereign nations," combining the traditional gold's national credit with the liquidity efficiency of on-chain assets, creating a strong "safety narrative." In a phase of declining risk appetite, this asset form, which has both physical backing and can be freely transferred on-chain, naturally attracts crypto funds seeking defensive positions.

The See-Saw of Bitcoin and Tokenized Gold Allocation

● Risk-Return Characteristics Comparison: The core selling point of Bitcoin lies in its high volatility, high elasticity, and long-term scarcity premium, making it suitable for an offensive role in a portfolio; gold tokens, on the other hand, are pegged to physical gold, with prices more closely following international gold prices, exhibiting significantly lower volatility than BTC, and resembling traditional safe-haven assets. The two serve as offense and defense, providing distinctly different return/risk combinations for funds along the same crypto trading pathway.

● Safe-Haven Path in the Second Half of the Bull Market: After Bitcoin and mainstream coins experience a significant surge, some early-entering crypto funds often choose to lock in profits and reduce volatility exposure. In the past, such funds typically flowed into fiat currency or over-the-counter gold; today, they can directly swap part of their BTC for Tether Gold and other gold tokens on-chain, achieving "on-chain solidification" of paper profits. This migration path will become more apparent during high market phases.

● The Interplay Between Physical Tokenization and Traditional Crypto: As physical gold, government bonds, and other traditional assets are gradually tokenized, they form a new asset allocation see-saw with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other "native crypto assets" on-chain. When risk appetite rises, funds flow into high β assets like BTC; when risk-averse demand increases, tokenized gold absorbs the returning funds. The two are not merely a zero-sum relationship but take turns dominating the marginal flow of funds in different macro phases.

Compliance and Infrastructure Paving the Way for Asset Migration

● Kraken's Launch of HSK Timing Resonance: In the process of the aforementioned fund migration and asset repricing, infrastructure is also evolving in sync. Briefing data shows that Kraken launched the HashKey ecosystem token HSK within the same time window, indicating not only support for a single token but also further endorsement by traditional compliant exchanges for compliant public chains and East Asian compliant ecosystems, reserving interfaces for subsequent physical asset on-chain integration.

● Compliance Platforms and Public Chains Providing Soil: Compliant exchanges provide clear listing and trading rules for tokenized gold, government bonds, and other physical assets, while compliant public chains are responsible for executing asset registration, custody, and cross-border circulation. This "platform + public chain" dual compliance framework reduces the compliance costs for institutions participating in tokenized physical assets, allowing large funds to flexibly switch between various risk-level assets like BTC and XAUt within the same infrastructure.

● The Impact of Regulation and Infrastructure on Long-Term Allocation: As regulatory rules gradually clarify and custody and auditing standards converge, institutions' allocation decisions between Bitcoin and tokenized physical assets will increasingly rely on the compliance environment. The "digital gold" narrative of Bitcoin will continue to support its position as a core allocation target, while gold tokens like XAUt will gradually become risk-hedging tools that can be included in balance sheets under a compliant framework. The weight of both in institutional asset allocation will dynamically rebalance as systems and infrastructure mature.

Bitcoin's Main Battlefield Remains Unchanged, Gold Tokens Open New Safe-Haven Entrances

● Reinforcement of Institutional Consensus on Bitcoin: Strategy's continued investment of $264.1 million in Bitcoin within the $90,000 fluctuation range has increased its overall holdings to 712,647 BTC, with a total cost of about $54.19 billion, reinforcing the market consensus on Bitcoin as a core asset position for institutions. For large funds, Bitcoin remains the most liquid and long-term value-anchored main battlefield in the crypto world.

● Gold On-Chain Becomes a New Defensive Channel: On the other end, Tether Gold's market capitalization has surpassed $4 billion and occupies about 60% market share, with 520,000 ounces of LBMA gold as reserves, essentially locking in its position as the leader in the gold token sector. It brings the safe-haven attributes of traditional gold onto the blockchain, providing crypto funds with a new entrance to "switch defenses" to physical assets without having to exit the market, and its importance will be further amplified during periods of increased volatility.

● Expectations of Dynamic Switching in the Cycle: Looking ahead to the next few major cycles, institutional funds are likely to engage in more refined dynamic switching between appreciating Bitcoin positions and defensive positions in gold tokens: increasing BTC weight during liquidity easing and high risk appetite, and raising the proportion of tokenized gold like XAUt when macro uncertainties rise or the market enters the latter half. Together, these two asset classes form an "offense + defense" combination in the crypto world and will serve as an important window for observing the next round of large fund rotation paths.

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