In the Eastern Eight Time Zone this week, on-chain monitoring data shows that an Ethereum whale, who previously made a profit of approximately $98.18 million through swing trading, continues to aggressively accumulate ETH amidst a significant net outflow of funds overall. According to statistics, this address has purchased a total of 70,013 ETH in the past week, with an average acquisition price of about $2,907, contrasting sharply with the $1.73 billion net outflow from digital asset investment products last week (CoinShares data): on one side, funds are being withdrawn en masse from various products, while on the other side, a single large holder is buying at high prices, going against the trend. This has brought the market debate to the forefront—are these purchases "smart money" preemptively bottoming out a new rising cycle, or are they high-risk bets during a liquidity retreat? How should ordinary participants interpret and respond?
The Whale that Made $98.18 Million Takes Action Again
● Historical Performance: According to publicly available market data, this whale has previously made multiple successful swing trades in ETH, accumulating approximately $98.18 million in profits. Their trading pattern generally shows a rhythm of "buying in batches during declines and reducing positions in segments during rebounds," often managing to position themselves ahead of the market and exit at relatively high points in past cycles. This high win rate has led to their on-chain behavior being viewed as an important reference signal, becoming a typical sample for tracking "smart money" movements, and amplifying the impact of this round of continuous buying on market sentiment.
● Weekly Accumulation Rhythm: Based on monitoring data, this address has accumulated 70,013 ETH in the past week, with an overall average acquisition price of about $2,907, completed through multiple large transactions. From the path taken, they did not choose to go all-in at once but instead entered in batches as ETH prices retraced, spreading out costs through prolonged time and price diversification. This "patient passive accumulation" seems more like an acknowledgment of the mid-to-long-term price range rather than a short-term gamble, providing a certain safety cushion for their average cost within the current volatility range.
● Wintermute Acquisition Details: In the latest large transaction, this whale increased their holdings by an additional 20,000 ETH through the market maker Wintermute channel, with an average transaction price of about $2,806.58 approximately 12 hours ago. Compared to their overall average acquisition price of $2,907, this purchase was made at a lower price range, further reducing the overall holding cost. From the transaction structure, the use of a professional market-making institution to facilitate large over-the-counter or deep orders also somewhat mitigated the direct impact on the secondary market.
● Unrealized Gains and Position Status: Based on current market conditions, this whale's overall ETH holdings have approximately $2.1 million in unrealized gains (according to sources like Jinse Finance), placing them in a slightly profitable but not deeply realized profit early stage. In this state, they face neither the pressure of forced liquidation nor have they entered a "comfort zone" for significantly reducing positions to lock in profits, theoretically still having room to continue accumulating or optimizing costs. However, since the briefing did not disclose their overall holding structure and subsequent plans, outsiders cannot deduce their next specific actions, and can only view the current position as an expression of risk preference for the price range.
The Great Escape of Funds and the Counterpull of Whale Buying
● Product Fund Net Outflow: CoinShares reports that last week, global digital asset investment products experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.73 billion, reaching an extreme level in recent times, primarily driven by redemptions from various products aimed at institutions and qualified investors. This indicates that within the traditional financial framework, some funds have chosen to withdraw from financial products linked to crypto assets, reflecting concerns about short-term performance and the macro environment, rather than simple migrations between on-chain wallets, pointing more towards an overall reduction in institutional risk appetite.
● Overall Market Weakness: Under this macro sentiment, the prices of mainstream assets are under pressure. For example, BNB saw its price drop below $870, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.24%. This is not a single-day crash but reflects a state of continuous decline and weak buying. Similar weak trends have repeatedly appeared across multiple mainstream assets, compounded by amplified volatility effects, leading market participants to be more inclined to wait and see or reduce positions, with an overall decline in risk appetite and relatively limited active funds willing to take on positions.
● Macro Outflow and On-Chain Accumulation Misalignment: On one side, "upper-level funds" represented by products like funds and ETPs are collectively flowing out, while on the other side, a single whale is continuously expanding their holdings in the spot market. There is a significant misalignment in the timing and participant structure between the two. Institutional redemptions are often based on quarterly or monthly assessments, macro policy expectations, and portfolio rebalancing logic, while whales may focus more on on-chain data, technical aspects, and mid-to-long-term valuation centers. This results in a situation where, at the same time, there is a "product-side sell-off—on-chain side accumulation" flow of funds.
● Utilizing Panic Discounts or Countering Macro: CoinShares attributes the main reason for the outflow of funds to "lower interest rate expectations and weak prices," meaning that the cooling of macro expectations combined with poor asset performance has led to some funds being passively withdrawn. Against this backdrop, the whale chose to concentrate their accumulation in the price retracement area, which can be interpreted as either countering the pessimistic pricing given by macro funds or taking advantage of the panic-induced discount range for positioning. Current information is insufficient to determine whether they are "betting on a macro reversal," but it is certain that they are willing to take on higher price and liquidity risks when institutions are generally contracting.
How Much is Smart Money Signaling: The Whale and…
● Representation and Limitations of Smart Money: From historical data, this whale, with approximately $98.18 million in accumulated profits and multiple successful swings, is widely regarded as an important sample of "smart money" on-chain. Their accumulation and reduction actions are often tracked and mimicked by retail investors and other large holders. However, any single address's successful record carries cyclical and survivor bias; their trading style, capital size, and tolerance for drawdowns differ fundamentally from ordinary participants, meaning their behavior, while valuable for reference, also has inherent limitations such as a limited sample size and opaque strategies.
● Differences in Participant Structure: The $1.73 billion net outflow from institutional products is primarily driven by regulated asset managers, family offices, etc., with decisions typically based on macro interest rates, compliance environments, and portfolio risk control; while the on-chain whale's spot accumulation leans more towards individual or small team decisions, with information sources possibly including on-chain data, internal research, or even subjective judgment. The two differ significantly in investment horizons, drawdown tolerances, and attitudes towards volatility, leading to opposite operations in the same market environment not being uncommon.
● Average Price Range and Valuation Judgment: This whale's current overall average acquisition price is around $2,900, with the latest large purchase averaging about $2,806.58, roughly locking in a mid-to-short-term price range. From the results, they have not been fixated on "buying at the lowest point," but have continuously accumulated in the $2,800–$2,900 range, implying some recognition of ETH's mid-to-long-term value—even if there is still room for short-term decline, this price range still offers a high cost-performance ratio in their risk model. This pricing is closer to mid-to-long-term valuation judgments rather than a gamble on precise short-term highs and lows.
● The Boundary Between Signals and Instructions: For ordinary investors, the whale's large accumulation actions can be seen as reference signals for market sentiment, concentration of chips, and potential trend reversals, but they should not be viewed as "certain buy instructions." On one hand, their capital size and holding periods allow them to endure far greater unrealized losses than retail investors; on the other hand, outsiders lack complete information on their overall portfolio and risk management, making it impossible to reconstruct their true risk/reward ratio. Therefore, when incorporating whale behavior into decision-making frameworks, it is more appropriate to treat it as an emotional and structural variable rather than a simple follow-the-leader trigger.
Increasing External Concerns: Security Events and…
● Signals of Escalating Security Events: On the external layer, security and compliance risks are also accumulating. In a recent hacking incident involving Coinbase Commerce, attackers transferred approximately 5.9 million DAI into Tornado Cash for mixing and transfer, significantly increasing the difficulty of on-chain tracking. Such events once again highlight the security shortcomings in payment and custody processes and deepen regulatory concerns regarding the interplay between on-chain privacy tools and anti-money laundering, with market demands for "compliance + security" rising in tandem.
● Compliance Payment Giants Penetrating the ETH Ecosystem: On the other hand, payment giant PayPal's launch of PYUSD on the Stable network shows that its layout in the crypto infrastructure layer is continuously advancing. Although the briefing did not disclose more technical and cross-chain details, mainstream payment institutions integrating their digital payment products into a broader network inherently signifies a deeper embedding into the public chain ecosystem. For applications and liquidity pools built around ETH, such compliant funding entrances and payment scenarios are expected to bring more real demand and credit endorsement to the ecosystem in the mid-to-long term.
● Traditional Financial Product Innovation Support: Japan's SBI Holdings applying for a BTC/XRP dual-asset ETF is another signal of innovation in traditional financial products, indicating that some mature markets are attempting to systematically incorporate crypto assets into their asset allocation toolbox. Once such products are launched, they will provide more standardized allocation channels for compliant funds, allowing exposure without directly holding on-chain assets, which, in the mid-to-long term, is beneficial for solidifying crypto assets' status as "investable targets" and reserving institutionalized channels for future fund inflows.
● Divergent Feedback from the Secondary Stock Market: Meanwhile, crypto concept stocks like MicroStrategy are showing mixed performance in pre-market trading, reflecting a clear divergence pattern and indicating that traditional stock market investors' pricing of crypto-related assets still heavily relies on macro and regulatory expectations. When there is uncertainty in interest rate trends and policy directions, concept stock prices often provide emotional feedback ahead of on-chain assets, and this cross-market linkage between stocks, bonds, and on-chain markets is also influencing institutions' reassessment of the overall risk-return profile of crypto assets.
Ethereum's Patience Test Under Aggressive Short Selling
Current market views indicate that many institutions and traders agree with the judgment that "short sellers are in an aggressive selling phase, but the overall bull market trend has not been completely broken," leaning towards viewing this round of decline as a severe retracement following the previous rise, rather than the starting point of a new long-term bear market. Combined with last week's $1.73 billion net outflow and the continued weakness in mainstream asset prices, it can be seen that institutions and products are concentrating their retreat, lowering overall valuations and liquidity, while on-chain whales are choosing to tentatively enter the $2,800–$2,900 range, forming a tug-of-war pattern of "institutional balance sheet reduction—smart money accumulation." Ethereum is undergoing a test of time and patience.
From an operational perspective, a more rational framework should include three points: first, continuously monitor the whale's cost zone and whether there are significant accumulation or reduction behaviors, but avoid absolutizing or mythologizing their actions; second, combine data monitoring from CoinShares and others to observe changes in marginal fund flows, especially whether net outflows from the product side are easing, as well as on-chain activity and signals of new funds entering; third, prioritize risk control, using position management and stop-loss mechanisms to hedge against emotional fluctuations, rather than blindly following a single address or narrative. In a phase where institutional contraction and whale buying coexist, whether one can retain enough chips and mindset amidst volatility may be more critical than hitting a specific bottom point.
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