Written by: Francisco Rodrigues

Translated by: Shenchao TechFlow

Senchao Introduction:

For a long time, Bitcoin has been touted as "digital gold," but this narrative is facing severe challenges amid recent market volatility triggered by Trump's tariff policies and Arctic geopolitical tensions. While gold prices steadily rise and approach the $5,000 mark, Bitcoin has shown lackluster performance.

Research from NYDIG (New York Digital Investment Group) indicates that Bitcoin's extremely high liquidity and 24/7 trading characteristics have turned it into an "ATM" for investors to cash out during times of panic, rather than a safe haven. This article delves into why Bitcoin is losing its safe-haven attributes to traditional gold under the current short-term policy shocks.

The full text is as follows:

Bitcoin behaves more like an "ATM" during uncertain times, with investors quickly selling it off to raise cash.

Key Points:

• Disconnection from Safe Haven: In the recent geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin fell by 6.6%, while gold rose by 8.6%. This strongly demonstrates Bitcoin's continued vulnerability during market pressure periods.
• "ATM" Effect: During uncertain times, Bitcoin's performance resembles that of an "ATM"—investors rapidly sell it off to quickly raise cash, which contradicts its reputation as a "stable digital asset."
• Misalignment of Hedging Attributes: Gold remains the preferred hedging tool for short-term risks, while Bitcoin is more suitable for addressing long-term monetary risks and geopolitical uncertainties that span years rather than weeks.

Theoretically, Bitcoin should shine during uncertain times as it is a hard currency with anti-censorship properties. However, in practice, when situations become urgent, it is becoming the first asset investors sell off.

In the past week, as geopolitical tensions escalated—following Trump's threats to impose tariffs on NATO allies over the Greenland acquisition issue and speculation about potential military actions in the Arctic—the market experienced a pullback, and volatility surged sharply.

Since January 18, when Trump first threatened tariffs during the push to acquire Greenland, Bitcoin has depreciated by 6.6%, while gold has risen by 8.6%, reaching a new high close to $5,000.

The reason lies in how each asset integrates into investment portfolios during times of stress. Bitcoin's around-the-clock trading, deep liquidity, and instant settlement characteristics make it the easiest asset for investors to reduce when they need to quickly raise cash.

According to Greg Cipolaro, global research director at NYDIG, while gold may be less accessible, it is often held rather than sold. This makes Bitcoin behave more like an "ATM" during panic, undermining its reputation as "digital gold."

"In times of stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference dominates, and this dynamic harms Bitcoin far more than gold," Cipolaro wrote.

"Despite its liquidity in terms of scale, Bitcoin still maintains higher volatility and is reflexively sold off as leverage is liquidated. Therefore, in a risk-off environment, regardless of its long-term narrative, it is often used to raise cash, reduce value-at-risk (VAR), and de-risk portfolios, while gold continues to serve as a true liquidity reservoir," he added.

The performance of large holders (whales) does not help either.

Central banks have been purchasing gold at record levels, creating strong structural demand. Meanwhile, according to NYDIG's report, long-term Bitcoin holders are selling.

Onchain data shows that vintage coins (tokens that have not moved for a long time) are continuously flowing to exchanges, indicating a steady selling pressure. This "seller overhang" suppresses price support. Cipolaro added, "The gold sector exhibits a completely opposite dynamic. Large holders, especially central banks, continue to hoard this metal."

Another reason for this mismatch is the way the market prices risk. The current turmoil is viewed as episodic, driven by tariffs, policy threats, and short-term shocks. For a long time, gold has been seen as a tool to hedge against such uncertainties.

In contrast, Bitcoin is more suited to address long-term concerns, such as fiat debasement or sovereign debt crises.

"Gold performs excellently in moments of immediate loss of confidence, war risks, and fiat debasement that do not involve a complete systemic collapse," Cipolaro added.

"In contrast, Bitcoin is better suited to hedge against long-term monetary and geopolitical disorder, as well as the slow erosion of trust over years rather than weeks. As long as the market believes that the current risks, while dangerous, have not yet touched the fundamentals, gold remains the preferred safe-haven tool."

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