On January 26, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, Matrixport released the latest Bitcoin technical analysis report, bringing the market's focus back to the deep correction that has been ongoing since the fourth quarter of last year. The report pointed out that after Bitcoin fell below the critical 21-week moving average in the fourth quarter, it has consistently failed to regain this technical support, with prices generally oscillating in the range of approximately $85,000 to $95,000 to digest previous gains. Meanwhile, data provided by Matrixport shows that about 70% of institutional investors believe Bitcoin is "undervalued" in this range, creating a stark tension between bearish technical indicators and bullish institutional expectations. Currently, Bitcoin is at a critical stage of "trend correction" versus "long-term optimism," centered around the single technical anchor of the 21-week moving average and valuation judgments from institutional perspectives.
Technical Guidance for Breaking Below the 21-Week Line
● Key Moving Average Position: The 21-week moving average for Bitcoin, as reported by Matrixport, is approximately $96,044 (single source). In the context of current prices fluctuating mainly around the $85,000 to $95,000 range, this moving average is positioned above the spot price, forming a clear medium-term pressure zone. For funds using trend-following strategies, the 21-week line is often seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish in the medium cycle; prices below it indicate that the upward trend has been disrupted, and the market is entering a correction phase focused on digesting high-level positions and releasing previous overheating.
● Rhythm of the Correction Phase: Briefing information indicates that Bitcoin has been in a correction phase since it fell below the 21-week moving average in the fourth quarter, meaning the correction has lasted multiple weekly cycles rather than a quick rebound after a short-term drop. In terms of time, several months of consolidation below the key moving average typically correspond to a phase of trend funds reducing positions and intensified short-term speculative trading, with prices oscillating back and forth within a wide range, characterized by repeated testing of support and resistance rather than a one-sided surge or collapse.
● Historical Role Comparison: Matrixport cites historical experience in the report, indicating that the 21-week moving average plays a dual role as both a "trend-following signal" and a "risk warning threshold" in Bitcoin's market: when prices stabilize above it and do not break below, it often corresponds to the continued push of a medium-term bull market; conversely, the first effective drop below this line after a rapid rise often precedes significant pullbacks or prolonged consolidations. Although this viewpoint comes from a single institution, it aligns broadly with the traditional technical analysis method of using "medium-term trend lines," providing a reference framework for interpreting the current market situation.
● Current Positioning: Comparing the moving average position provided by Matrixport with the institutional valuation range, the current price range is still overall below the $96,044 21-week moving average, technically classified as a "correction range" rather than a "re-acceleration" phase. The failure to effectively recover and stabilize above the moving average indicates that bulls have not yet regained dominance in the medium cycle, and the market is more engaged in position adjustments and emotional rebalancing near high levels, with no signals yet forming a closed loop for a sustained upward trend.
Institutional Perspective on Undervaluation Judgment
● Survey Result Profile: In terms of valuation, Matrixport's survey results show that about 70% of institutional investors believe Bitcoin is undervalued in the $85,000 to $95,000 range, with this data also coming from a single source. In other words, even though the price is technically below the key moving average and the market is defined as being in a correction phase, most institutions still view the current range as a configuration window close to the "long-term reasonable value lower bound," rather than a high-risk area, contrasting sharply with typical retail investors' fear of heights or panic.
● Institutional Optimism Logic: Despite the ongoing technical pressure, institutions still provide an "undervalued" judgment, which is more based on asset allocation and long-term narratives rather than short-term market speculation. On one hand, Bitcoin is seen as a "core allocation within digital assets" in many institutional asset allocation frameworks, having low correlation with traditional assets and serving as a hedge against certain macro risks; on the other hand, from the perspective of halving cycles, increased participation from mainstream financial institutions, and the expansion of compliant products, institutions are more focused on the risk-return structure over 3-5 years rather than the magnitude of technical corrections within a single quarter.
● Dislocation of Correction and Optimism: The technical signals indicate "trend disruption and being in a correction period," while institutions in the same range generally believe it is "undervalued," creating a dislocation between short-term price fluctuations and medium-to-long-term value expectations. This dislocation means that while selling pressure and panic driven by technical factors may dominate in the short term, if there is no systemic deterioration in macro and fundamental conditions over a longer time scale, institutional funds may instead use the correction range to gradually increase their positions, thereby gradually elevating the central tendency.
● Choices in Fund Behavior: In light of this cognitive divergence, fund behavior will generally oscillate between two paths: one is based on the institutional "undervalued" judgment of buying on dips, gradually accumulating as prices approach the $85,000 side, tolerating short- to medium-term volatility; the other is adhering to technical discipline and waiting for confirmation, only considering increasing allocations when prices regain the 21-week moving average and form a volume breakout. The overlap of these two behavioral paths results in the current range having both medium- to long-term buying support and a lack of sufficient momentum to trigger an immediate trend reversal.
Emotional Thermometer in Technical Correction
● Structure of Emotional Differences: When technical signals are bearish while institutional expectations are bullish, the emotional temperature between retail and institutional investors often diverges significantly. Institutions, viewing the current situation as a reasonable pullback during a correction from a long-term perspective, are more resilient to short-term fluctuations; conversely, retail investors, who heavily rely on price performance and technical signals, are more likely to amplify negative interpretations upon seeing key moving averages broken and repeated resistance to rebounds, tending to interpret corrections as trend reversals. This emotional structure leads to a tendency for capital to migrate from high-leverage short-term funds to low-leverage long-term funds during the correction period.
● Transaction and Leverage Characteristics: During the technical correction phase, the market typically exhibits characteristics such as slowing transaction volumes, cooling leverage, or rapid convergence after short-term liquidations; however, due to the briefing's clear lack of real-time market and specific leverage data, precise values or candlestick structures cannot be provided here. It can be confirmed that during typical correction periods, the activity of short-term chasing funds decreases, extreme leveraged positions in the derivatives market are often cleared at key technical levels, while spot and low-leverage funds are more inclined to gradually enter during corrections, transitioning the overall structure from "amplified speculation" to "converging volatility."
● Self-Fulfilling Nature of Technical Signals: When the 21-week moving average and other medium-cycle indicators are widely monitored by the market, their signals often exhibit a "self-fulfilling" effect. Once this collectively recognized important support is broken, programmatic trading and disciplined funds will simultaneously reduce positions, amplifying downward volatility; conversely, when prices approach areas widely regarded as "undervalued," passive or active buying from institutions and medium- to long-term funds will gradually increase, buffering technical selling pressure. A positive feedback loop forms between technical signals and emotions: pessimists intensify selling when signals are validated, while optimists gain more confidence to buy at lower levels when corrections are validated as "temporary."
Marginal Easing of Regulatory and Compliance Winds
● Timing of SEC Dismissal: At the macro level of the industry, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dismissed its lawsuit against Gemini, adding a new variable to the current regulatory narrative. Considering that this event occurred while Bitcoin was in a technical correction phase, this action is not only a legal development at the case level but is also interpreted by the market as a signal of slight softening in regulatory attitudes in certain business areas after a period of high-pressure regulation, at least temporarily alleviating extreme regulatory risk concerns faced by leading platforms.
● Marginal Changes in Regulatory Tone: It is important to emphasize that existing information is insufficient to support any accurate predictions about future specific regulatory policy paths, but the SEC's choice to dismiss the lawsuit at this time objectively creates a certain expectation of "marginal easing" for the industry. The market may interpret this as future regulation focusing more on compliance frameworks and transparency requirements rather than simply using lawsuits and bans as primary means, thereby enhancing institutions' willingness to participate in compliant products and services.
● Potential Positive Correlation with Medium- to Long-Term Adoption Expectations: The easing of regulatory uncertainty has a potential positive correlation with Bitcoin's medium- to long-term adoption expectations. For traditional institutions, the predictability of the legal and compliance environment is one of the necessary conditions for expanding exposure to new asset classes. When extreme regulatory events faced by leading platforms decrease, the infrastructure surrounding custody, trading, derivatives, and compliant products becomes easier to form, thereby introducing more stable institutional funding sources for mainstream assets like Bitcoin, reinforcing its long-term attractiveness alongside the aforementioned judgment of being "undervalued in key ranges."
Ecological Expansion and Multi-Chain Landscape
● Coinbase and Solana Integration: At the level of exchanges and public chain ecosystems, Coinbase has completed its integration with the Solana chain, marking another key expansion for leading compliant exchanges in multi-chain service layouts. For users, this means easier access to Solana ecosystem assets and applications; for the industry, it represents that mainstream compliant platforms are transitioning from a "single main chain entry" to a "multi-chain comprehensive hub," facilitating more efficient movement of funds, applications, and users across different public chains.
● Redistribution of Funds and Attention: The multi-chain layout inevitably leads to redistribution of funds and attention between Bitcoin and other public chains. On one hand, new public chains and applications will attract short-term speculation and innovative capital, diverting some high-risk preference funds away from Bitcoin; on the other hand, Bitcoin, with its relatively solid narrative and market capitalization, increasingly plays the role of "benchmark asset in a multi-chain world" and "risk budget anchor," remaining the starting point and core base for most institutions when configuring multi-chain investments. This redistribution resembles structural optimization within the ecosystem rather than a fundamental weakening of Bitcoin's long-term position.
● Improvement in Infrastructure Maturity: Leading institutions expanding multi-chain services essentially promote the maturity and compliance of the overall cryptocurrency industry's infrastructure. When more public chain assets can be securely and transparently traded and custodied on compliant platforms like Coinbase, the risk management and auditing standards of the entire industry are forced to improve, thereby enhancing traditional institutions' overall confidence in cryptocurrency assets. Bitcoin, as the industry's "face" and flagship asset, directly benefits from this infrastructure upgrade, echoing the previously mentioned long-term optimistic expectations of institutions regarding Bitcoin.
Technical Correction Not Over, Macro Narrative Still Ongoing
The current landscape can be summarized as follows: Bitcoin's price is still operating below the 21-week moving average of approximately $96,044, technically in a medium-cycle correction phase; however, according to data from a single source at Matrixport, most institutions view the $85,000 to $95,000 range as an undervalued configuration area. The dislocation between technical indicators and valuation judgments results in clear stratification between short-term fluctuations and medium- to long-term expectations. Meanwhile, the SEC's dismissal of the lawsuit against Gemini brings a marginal easing signal to the U.S. regulatory tone; Coinbase's completion of the Solana chain integration continues to promote the upgrade of multi-chain ecology and compliant infrastructure, indirectly reinforcing Bitcoin's medium- to long-term attractiveness and institutional path across different dimensions. For market participants, a more feasible thinking framework is to clearly distinguish between short-term technical risk defense and medium- to long-term allocation rhythm at the operational level: respect key technical signals like the 21-week moving average in the short term without making subjective speculations on price trends; in the medium to long term, based on their own risk tolerance and allocation needs, assess the current correction range's position within the overall cycle, and gradually plan entry and accumulation rhythms without pursuing any specific price targets or time points.
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