On January 26, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, approximately 3 hours ago, Trend Research, an institution under Yi Lihua, was detected on-chain withdrawing 30 million USDT from Binance, which was used to repay part of its loans on Aave, attracting widespread attention amid the continuous pullback in the Ethereum market. On-chain data shows that this significant investor in the Ethereum ecosystem currently holds approximately 651,300 ETH, which, at a current market value of about $1.85 billion, represents a paper loss of about $215 million compared to an average entry price of $3,180, with a leverage ratio still maintained at around 2.2 times. The real tension in the market is not the repayment itself, but rather: during this down cycle, Trend Research has chosen to reduce some leverage while still maintaining such a massive long position, creating a “decompress but not retreat” stance that makes the risk balance for all Ethereum longs increasingly delicate, keeping all funds watching the liquidation line on high alert.
Defensive Shift of the 30 Million USDT Repayment
● On-chain Path and Rhythm: According to monitoring data, on January 26, Trend Research first withdrew 30 million USDT from its Binance account to its own address, and then injected this portion of funds in batches into Aave-related addresses to repay part of its dollar debt. The overall rhythm shows a pattern of “single large withdrawal, multiple repayments on-chain,” indicating that this is not a routine fund adjustment but a concentrated repair action targeting existing leveraged positions, prioritizing the alleviation of short-term debt pressure.
● Debt Ratio and Marginal Alleviation: This 30 million USDT repayment accounts for less than 3% of Trend Research's current total borrowing scale of $1.03 billion USDT on Aave. In terms of magnitude, it appears more like a slight adjustment to the overall risk curve rather than a complete withdrawal from the leverage strategy. In other words, while the institution actively reduces some pressure, it still chooses to retain over 90% of its dollar liabilities, meaning the overall leverage risk has only marginally decreased and is far from entering a safe zone.
● Defensive Stance and Emotional Shift: On-chain analyst Yu Jin pointed out that the institution has “not continued to increase positions” during this round of decline, but instead withdrew funds to replenish loans, indicating a current preference for a defensive operational phase. This shift from “adding positions on dips” to “repaying loans on dips” conveys a change in sentiment where leveraged longs begin to pay attention to volatility risks and liquidation ranges, also suggesting that Trend Research's confidence in the short-term market has marginally weakened.
651,300 ETH in Loss: The Weight of This Chip
● Profit and Loss Structure Breakdown: Trend Research currently holds approximately 651,300 ETH, with a calculated market value of $1.85 billion based on the briefing, implying an average entry cost of about $3,180. At the current price, this large position is overall in a floating loss range of about $215 million, meaning this institution has already endured a paper drawdown close to the net asset value level of a medium-sized fund, and this is only part of its publicly visible Ethereum position.
● Pressure of Floating Loss on Net Value and Risk Control: With a floating loss exceeding $200 million, even if the institution's overall management scale is far above this figure, the drawdown of this single asset is enough to trigger warning lines in many traditional risk control systems. From the risk committee to LP communication, such a scale of loss will force the team to be more conservative regarding leverage, margin redundancy, and liquidation distance, significantly constraining the space for continuing to increase long positions in the short term.
● Symbolic Significance in Historical Comparison: Looking back at past Ethereum whales and institutional holdings, concentrated chips exceeding 500,000 ETH are already rare, and enduring a floating loss of over $200 million at this scale is enough to become a barometer of market sentiment. For on-site funds, this is not just a profit and loss issue of a position but is interpreted as a symbol of whether the leading longs can withstand the current round of volatility. Each instance of reducing leverage, replenishing margin, or even passive liquidation will be magnified as a real vote on the ETH long narrative.
Chain Risks of Unwound 2.2x Leverage
● Amplified Risks Under Leverage: Under the framework of $1.03 billion USDT borrowing and 2.2x leverage, every decline in ETH price will be reflected in Trend Research's on-paper performance in a nearly linear amplification manner. If the price further dips, the margin ratio will continue to be compressed, and the same magnitude of price fluctuation will have an unimaginable impact on the institution's net value, making any short-term sharp volatility potentially evolve into a structural risk event.
● Pressure Transmission of Aave's Liquidation Mechanism: In decentralized lending protocols like Aave, large leveraged positions will gradually approach the liquidation threshold based on the value of collateral assets and the debt ratio. Once the price falls below a certain critical range, the protocol will automatically liquidate part of the collateral ETH to repay debts through on-chain liquidators. For a leading borrower like Trend Research, the scale of ETH sold in a single liquidation is enough to exert substantial pressure on secondary market prices and trigger a chain reaction of liquidation among other highly leveraged longs through expectation effects.
● Downward Scenarios and Liquidation Footage: In various market downturn scenarios, as long as the ETH price continues to approach the concentrated liquidation range of large holders, an on-chain cycle of “expectation → reduction → price drop → nearing liquidation → forced selling” may occur. Once a leading position triggers passive selling at the protocol level, it will not only amplify the current decline but may also activate risk control procedures for more institutions using Aave or other lending protocols, creating a scenario where derivative markets see increased margin calls and spot selling pressure simultaneously rise.
Market Amplifier Under Aave's Liquidation Clouds
● Background of Collective Liquidation Pressure: According to data disclosed by the Aave platform, there has been a recent upward trend in overall borrowing liquidation pressure from institutions on the protocol, with the collateral redundancy of some large addresses being continuously compressed. This indicates that Trend Research's leverage adjustment is not an isolated event but a reflection of the entire leveraged long group being forced to face the interplay of price volatility and margin efficiency in the same market environment, with any action being amplified in this high-pressure context.
● Leverage Amplification of Emotional Fluctuations: As one of the important investors in the Ethereum ecosystem, Trend Research's holding path has long been viewed as an “institutional sentiment indicator.” When such a heavily long position chooses to withdraw $30 million USDT to repay loans during a pullback rather than continue to increase spot or contract positions, the long camp will generally feel that marginal confidence is weakened. For shorts, this signal may be seen as confirmation that “leading longs are starting to be cautious,” further reinforcing the willingness to short or remain on the sidelines.
● Signal Implications of De-leveraging Behavior: Looking back at past market conditions, large visible repayments and de-leveraging actions often occur before or after periods of amplified volatility or trend turning points. Although this cannot simply be equated to top or bottom signals, for a high-attention asset like ETH, when leading institutions choose to actively reduce risk exposure, it often reflects in market expectations days to weeks in advance. Therefore, this operation by Trend Research is also viewed by many traders as an important leading indicator for observing mid-term trends.
Contrast from Aggressive to Defensive Stance
● Reversal of Leverage Long Impression: In the previous phase of this market, Trend Research was labeled as an “aggressive long” by the market due to its continuous leverage increase on platforms like Aave. At that time, price pullbacks were often seen as opportunities to add positions, with frequent on-chain actions of increasing collateral and expanding borrowing scale. Now, choosing to repay part of the debt during price declines represents a stark contrast to its past image of aggression.
● Institutional Consideration of Non-Flat Positions: From the institutional perspective, the choice of “reducing some leverage but not flattening the base position” is essentially a dual consideration of returns and reputation. On one hand, completely cutting the base position means locking in significant losses, which may bring greater pressure on the net value curve and LP relationships; on the other hand, not adjusting leverage at all may lead to passive involvement in large-scale liquidations during extreme market conditions. By moderately repaying $30 million USDT, Trend Research attempts to convey a signal of “controllable risk” to investors while ensuring a certain degree of flexibility.
● Divergence in Interpretation by External Funds: For off-site observers and on-chain funds, Trend Research's current stance can be seen as both “a prelude to rational stop-loss” and “a temporary support from determined bulls.” Conservatives may view the proactive reduction of leverage by leading longs as a preemptive defense against future downside risks; while optimists may interpret it as a technical adjustment to reserve margin for the next round of upward movement. This divergence in interpretation is precisely a reflection of the current market's true state of long-short contention.
Ethereum Longs in Dangerous Balance Not Yet Broken
Trend Research's withdrawal of $30 million USDT from Binance to repay Aave loans constitutes only a limited marginal alleviation of its total liabilities of $1.03 billion USDT, with changes to the overall leverage structure leaning more towards fine-tuning rather than withdrawal. From a protocol perspective, this helps to slightly widen the liquidation distance and reduce the single-point risk of Aave in the current environment of rising liquidation pressure; however, in terms of position size and leverage ratio, this institution remains in a dangerous balance of high exposure and low redundancy. The current situation is such that every sharp price fluctuation may be exponentially amplified into significant net value shocks or even on-chain liquidation events due to leverage effects. Moving forward, if Trend Research continues to choose to actively reduce leverage and gradually shrink its ETH position, the mid-term narrative may shift from “high-leverage bets on Ethereum” to an institutional paradigm of “risk management first”; whereas if large-scale liquidations are triggered passively due to uncontrolled market conditions, it will not only reshape the mid-term price structure of ETH but also leave a profound and lasting mark on institutional confidence, expectations of lending protocol safety, and the entire Ethereum long chain.
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