From January 28 to 29, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, the "Seven Giants" of U.S. tech stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—will release their earnings reports while also facing the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision. These two days will converge into a high-volatility global asset pricing window. Over the past three years, these seven companies have driven the overall valuation and risk appetite of U.S. stocks through the AI narrative, but by the end of 2025, there was a noticeable decline as the market began to question the return on massive AI investments. Sentiment shifted from "AI is omnipotent" to "who will pay for the investment?" In this context, a sharper question arises: as the seven giants continue to gamble on AI without being able to realize profits, where will Wall Street pull back its funds? Will the crypto market, especially ETH and related assets that are highly tied to the AI and tech narrative, become the side that gets drained, or will it conversely absorb some liquidity when traditional assets are under pressure?
From Three Years of Leading Gains to Correction: The Reversal of AI Gambling Sentiment
● Over the past three years, supported by narratives around generative AI, cloud computing power, and data center construction, the stock prices of the seven giants have consistently outperformed the U.S. stock market, becoming the core force driving major indices to new highs. During this phase, funds were almost "unconditionally" rewarding growth stories; as long as a larger AI vision could be articulated, the market was willing to grant higher valuation multiples. This one-sided bet also simultaneously pushed up the overall risk appetite and leverage levels of global risk assets.
● However, by the end of 2025, the market began to directly question: when will such massive AI capital expenditures and computing power investments translate into profits? After the expected return rhythm was reassessed, the stock prices of the seven giants saw a noticeable decline, with investors shifting from eager speculation to cautious profit-taking. The turning point in sentiment was not a denial of AI but rather the timeline—markets no longer tolerate endless cash burning for storytelling and are focusing on verifiable business cycles and profit paths.
● Consequently, investor sentiment shifted from "mindless betting on AI growth" to "demanding profits and cash flow," with the focus of valuations returning from long-term dreams to short- to medium-term realizations. In the past, any AI-related expenditure, even if it compressed profit margins, could gain tolerance; now, the market recalculates the marginal return on every dollar invested, with buybacks, dividends, and stable free cash flow being brought back to the forefront, forming a more direct trade-off with high-risk, high-investment AI expansion.
Earnings Night and Interest Rate Decision Collide Head-On
● Within the time window of January 28 to 29, the earnings reports of the seven giants and the FOMC interest rate decision will almost collide head-on, pushing U.S. stocks and global risk assets into the same high-volatility "settlement day." In just two days, company-level information regarding earnings, guidance, and capital expenditures, along with macro signals about interest rate levels and monetary conditions, will be digested by the market simultaneously, intensifying the adjustments of algorithmic trading and risk parity strategies, and significantly increasing the likelihood of concentrated emotional release.
● Tech stocks, especially high-valuation growth stocks, are extremely sensitive to interest rate levels. In a high-interest-rate environment, the discount rate used for future cash flow discounting rises, directly compressing the valuation range acceptable to the market. For the seven giants, which have heavy AI investments and longer return cycles, the higher the interest rates, the more the space for long-term narratives is squeezed, and investors are more inclined to demand improvements in current profits or more restrained capital expenditure plans. This is the largest structural pressure source when earnings reports and interest rate decisions overlap.
● Without fabricating specific data, three scenarios can be roughly outlined: first, if the earnings reports are overall strong and the FOMC releases relatively dovish signals, tech stock valuations may regain support, and risk appetite could spread to other assets, including crypto; second, if the earnings and interest rate signals are mixed, the market will shuffle funds between different assets, with sector rotation intensifying but overall risk appetite remaining relatively balanced; third, if the earnings reports fall short of expectations and are compounded by hawkish or high-interest rates maintaining market pressure, both tech stocks and broader risk assets will be under pressure, triggering a broader deleveraging and heightened risk aversion.
Who's Money is Wall Street Making: From U.S. Tech Giants to ETH Products
● U.S. tech stocks and crypto assets essentially compete for incremental funds within the same global risk asset pool: when the seven giants achieve excess returns driven by the AI narrative, actively managed funds tend to concentrate their allocations towards them, thereby relatively suppressing the allocation to more diversified crypto assets; conversely, when tech stocks' cost-performance declines or face regulatory and interest rate resonance pressures, some high-risk appetite funds will globally seek high-beta assets, with crypto often seen as one of the alternative directions.
● Taking Ethereum as an example, the two main paths for traditional funds to gain exposure to ETH have become quite clear: one is to hold spot ETH directly in over-the-counter or compliant exchanges, and the other is to indirectly hold and earn on-chain returns through staking ETFs and other traditional financial products. This dual-track structure allows institutions to switch positions under different regulatory and custody frameworks, achieving cross-asset rebalancing from stocks and bonds to crypto assets without completely changing their risk control and compliance structures.
● Grayscale's Ethereum staking ETF recently paid a dividend of 0.08317 per share, marking that Ethereum-like assets are actively aligning with the dividend and buyback logic of traditional tech stocks through "dividend-style" product forms. For funds seeking stable cash flow, tech stock buybacks and dividends were once the only main battlefield, but now some income-seeking funds are beginning to evaluate: within the same risk budget, should they choose ETH-related products with dividend attributes or continue to bet on high-valuation tech stocks with uncertain dividend and buyback rhythms.
● If the earnings reports of the seven giants are poor, or if they are forced to tighten buybacks and slow down dividends in a high-interest-rate environment, compounded by interest rate decisions suppressing overall valuations, some risk funds may migrate towards ETH and its staking products. The logical chain is: tech stocks' cost-performance declines → risk appetite does not completely disappear → investors seek assets that can carry risk budgets within regulatory frameworks and have potential growth and income attributes → ETH exposure with a "dividend feel" product structure becomes an important candidate direction during rebalancing.
A $70 Million Whale Transfer Reveals Patience
● At this critical moment of macro uncertainty, an extremely eye-catching large transaction appeared on-chain: a newly created wallet address received 25,001 ETH in one go, equivalent to about $73.17 million at the time. In terms of scale, this far exceeds the allocation level of typical retail investors or small institutions, resembling a large fund with a clear strategy and strong execution, choosing to complete a one-time position building on-chain during a period of dense macro and traditional asset noise.
● Such behavior is typically interpreted in the market as a signal of "long-term funds entering" or "strategic positioning": the new address itself reduces the binding with existing trading relationships, and receiving such a large amount of ETH at once indicates that this fund does not rely on short-term fluctuations for profit but is betting on the development of the Ethereum ecosystem, staking returns, and potential price revaluation over the coming years. Compared to high-frequency trading behaviors, this resembles an asset allocation decision from a cyclical perspective.
● Compared to the short-term emotional fluctuations surrounding the earnings reports of the seven giants and the FOMC decision, this large on-chain allocation clearly carries a stronger medium- to long-term attribute. Regardless of how the earnings data shakes the market or how interest rate rhetoric affects algorithmic trading, the on-chain whale's choice to complete its position before and after the concentrated release of macro noise conveys a signal: some funds are transcending immediate macro fluctuations, viewing Ethereum as a foundational asset that spans multiple interest rate cycles and even multiple tech narrative cycles.
Distant Quantum Clouds and Immediate Interest Rate Realities
● From a technical survival perspective, a16z Crypto has clearly judged that the likelihood of a general-purpose quantum computer capable of cracking cryptocurrencies appearing before 2030 is extremely low, effectively pushing back the systemic risk of being "struck dead by quantum." Under this premise, the market's core concerns about the security of crypto networks are temporarily suppressed, and the heated debate shifts back to more realistic dimensions—the iteration pace of the protocol itself, the regulatory environment, and the speed of integration with traditional financial infrastructure.
● When long-term technical risks are postponed, the current pricing focus of crypto assets naturally falls more at the intersection of macro interest rates, tech stock valuations, and the AI narrative. High interest rates raise discount rates, compressing the valuation elasticity of long-term growth stories; the performance of tech stock earnings determines whether the AI narrative can continue to attract capital; and within this framework, crypto assets may be seen as part of the "AI infrastructure" or treated as high-beta risk assets for adjustments. Their rise and fall are more a product of macro and narrative rather than a direct reflection of quantum computing threats.
● As for the market tidbits mentioned by CZ, such as "the new book is expected to be published at the end of February or early March," they are more just a part of the industry's self-narrative, similar to the launch of new products by exchanges or interviews with industry figures, creating localized heat on social media but difficult to sway the macro direction of funds. In contrast, the regulatory process, interest rate path, and capital expenditure plans of tech giants are the main lines determining the mid- to long-term valuation anchors of crypto assets, while various tidbits serve more as background noise, highlighting the limited and precious nature of the true driving forces.
After the Tech Earnings Season: Where Will Crypto Funds Flow
The overlap of tech giants' earnings reports and the FOMC interest rate decision within the same time window forms a "macro weather vane" for risk assets, redefining global fund pricing and risk appetite. After this, three outcomes may roughly emerge: first, tech stocks continue to "siphon" funds from other assets with strong performance and a mild interest rate environment, drawing away funds that could have flowed into crypto; second, risk appetite spills over, with tech stocks stabilizing while funds begin to flow down to high-beta crypto assets like ETH, forming a multi-layered market spanning stocks, bonds, and chains; third, both tech stocks and crypto come under pressure, initiating broader deleveraging under the squeeze of high interest rates and profit disappointments, with asset correlations rising and safe-haven assets prevailing in the short term.
For participants in the crypto market, the next phase resembles a cross-market intelligence war: they need to monitor the immediate reactions of stock, bond, and currency markets to interest rates and earnings reports while simultaneously tracking on-chain large transfers, changes in staking ratios, and other medium- to long-term signals, seeking resonance and divergence between the two information systems. Whether it’s the layout of on-chain infrastructure around the AI narrative or attempts at asset allocation around liquidity redistribution, the real advantage lies not in predicting the outcome of a single event but in understanding the direction of fund migration more quickly after the outcome materializes, and adjusting one's risk exposure and position structure accordingly.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
