This week, in the East 8 Time Zone, Ethereum processed approximately 2.88 million transactions in a single day, setting a new historical high, while the average Gas fees remained low. This combination of "high throughput + low fees" has reignited discussions in the market about the results of scaling. Meanwhile, on-chain activities included the USDC Treasury burning 50 million USDC and a whale address selling 11,190 ETH in one go. Against the complex backdrop of cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and warming regulatory discourse in the U.S., these events have shaped the current sentiment and pricing framework. How to assess the true "value" of Ethereum's on-chain activity beneath these data appearances has become a core issue for investors and researchers.
Behind 2.88 Million Transactions: Ethereum's Performance Inflection Point and Settlement Layer Transformation
● Transaction Records and Cost Structure: The Ethereum network recorded approximately 2.88 million transactions in a single day, setting a new historical high, but the transaction fees did not replicate the congestion premiums seen in 2021. The average Gas cost remains relatively low, indicating a significant improvement in on-chain capacity and execution efficiency. Compared to past cycles where "high activity = high fees," this round has controlled costs while surpassing previous transaction highs, providing intuitive data support for the narrative of a "performance inflection point."
● Mainnet Role Reconstruction: Bitfinex emphasized in its latest report that the Ethereum mainnet is gradually transforming into a "neutral settlement and coordination layer." The high throughput is no longer solely derived from the mainnet's own packaging capabilities but is also a result of the synergistic amplification effects with Layer 2 and external systems. This means that more high-frequency activities are executed externally and ultimately settled on the mainnet, continuously increasing the number of settlements and the intensity of state updates without raising average Gas fees.
● Effectiveness of Modularization and Layer 2 Routes: Under the long-promoted "modularization + Layer 2 route," Ethereum has gradually split execution, data availability, and settlement functions, achieving more refined resource allocation and scaling paths. While the specific technical implementation details are beyond the scope of this article, it can be confirmed that this architectural orientation is substantially improving the network's scalability, allowing the mainnet to maintain relatively stable fees and confirmation experiences even as load increases.
● Narrative and Macro Environment Connection: In the current context of a relatively relaxed U.S. regulatory attitude and rising expectations for industry compliance, Ethereum's demonstrated high performance and low costs provide a realistic foundation for its narrative as a "global neutral settlement layer." On a macro level, the cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have suppressed overall risk appetite. If the underlying infrastructure can support capital migration and asset on-chain with better cost-effectiveness, it will help attract medium- to long-term funds to continue viewing Ethereum as a core settlement and clearing layer.
Low Fee Era: Real Demand or Noise Amplification
● Amplification Space for Low-Value Transactions: When average fees are low, low-value, high-frequency small operations can be triggered in large numbers at almost negligible costs. From transfers and testing to automated script interactions, these activities can significantly increase transaction numbers in a short time. In the absence of granular data, it is difficult to accurately quantify the proportion of this "noise" within the 2.88 million transactions, but it can be reasonably inferred that the decrease in costs has created greater space for such activities.
● Settlement Layer Activities and Real Economic Deliveries: It is important to distinguish that each transaction on the settlement layer does not equate to a real economic delivery. Internal fund transfers, LP position adjustments, cross-protocol arbitrage, and settlements are more about internal state rearrangements; whereas salary payments, RWA asset redemptions, and real business payments represent value exchanges between on-chain and the real world. Both will increase transaction volume, but they have distinctly different effects on the long-term value capture of the network.
● Fee Declines Stimulating Strategic Trading: The decline in fees has significantly reduced the marginal costs for MEV seekers, cross-market arbitrageurs, and capital transfer transactions, making more marginal strategies executable and enhancing on-chain liquidity and price discovery efficiency. High-frequency liquidations, re-collateralizations, and rebalancing operations will also occur more frequently, which helps improve market efficiency but simultaneously amplifies "machine-to-machine" on-chain noise. From a data surface perspective, it becomes more challenging to distinguish between real demand and strategic flows.
● Evaluating the Framework for "Real Economic Activity": Without making arbitrary conclusions, a multi-dimensional data evaluation framework can be constructed, such as observing the interaction proportion of contracts related to RWA, stable assets, and salary payments; tracking the fund flows between long-term holding addresses and real enterprise-related addresses; and comparing protocol revenues, actual cash flows, and on-chain transaction details. Only by placing transaction numbers within a more three-dimensional data environment can we get closer to the true profile of "active value."
USDC Burn and RWA Narrative: Shrinking Dollar Liquidity on Ethereum
● USDC Supply Contraction Signal: On-chain data shows that the USDC Treasury burned 50 million USDC, which superficially indicates a phase of contraction in circulating supply. Although the specific institutions, funding paths, and asset allocation motivations behind the burn are not yet clear, it can be confirmed that some dollar liquidity is leaving the chain or being reallocated, which directly impacts Ethereum's dollar-denominated activities as a primary settlement layer.
● Tokenization of U.S. Stocks and Demand Reconstruction Perspective: Garrett Jin proposed that "tokenizing U.S. stocks to drive stablecoin demand is a major feasible path for refinancing U.S. debt," closely linking the U.S. sovereign debt issue with on-chain dollar demand. If more U.S. stock assets are settled and circulated on-chain in token form in the future, the demand for dollar tokens like USDC is expected to gain new structural support, with Ethereum naturally becoming a candidate for the infrastructure of this refinancing path.
● RWA, Debt, and Ethereum's Role: At the intersection of the RWA narrative and rising U.S. debt pressures, on-chain dollar demand is no longer just a speculative tool within exchanges but a potential debt instrument and asset securitization vehicle. If Ethereum is to take on this role, it needs to maintain advantages in compliance, performance, and governance neutrality. The phase contraction of USDC's on-chain supply indicates that we are still in a stage of demand structure reshaping, with the value of the settlement layer more reflected in "optional" and "reserve capacity" rather than immediate usage surges.
● Federal Reserve Expectations and Risk Appetite: Against the backdrop of significantly cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the overall liquidity expansion momentum is weakening, and the contraction of on-chain dollars often corresponds to a downgrade in risk appetite for risk assets. In this environment, even if Ethereum achieves high throughput and low fees, on-chain dollar-denominated activities may revolve more around stock games and efficiency improvements rather than one-sided expansions. This macro contraction coexisting with technical expansion necessitates that interpretations of on-chain data must also incorporate dimensions of monetary and credit cycles.
Whale Sells 11,190 ETH: Leverage Cleansing and On-Chain Game Intensity
● Whale Deleveraging Event and Scale: On-chain tracking shows that one address sold 11,190 ETH in a concentrated manner to reduce liquidation risk, amounting to tens of millions of dollars at current prices, representing a typical large-scale deleveraging operation. Such actions are often related to insufficient margin and deteriorating borrowing health, serving as a direct response to price volatility and changes in liquidity conditions, and creating a demonstration effect for other leveraged participants on the emotional level.
● Leverage Liquidation and Liquidity Shock Pathways: Under a leveraged trading structure, large sell-offs create significant shocks on the order book. If buy-side support is insufficient, it will further trigger more positions to approach the liquidation line, creating a chain reaction of selling pressure. In the short term, market makers need to reprice risk amid larger spreads and slippage, leading to a deep phase decline in both spot and derivatives markets. Even without actual liquidations occurring, the whale's "active deleveraging to avoid passive liquidation" behavior itself conveys market concerns about downward volatility.
● High Throughput, Low Fees, and Game Frequency: In an environment of high throughput and low fees on Ethereum, large funds can more frequently reorganize collateral, engage in cross-protocol arbitrage, and adjust positions without being severely constrained by on-chain costs. This means that when whales choose to deleverage or restructure positions, their on-chain actions can become more fragmented, concealed, and high-frequency, enhancing the underlying network's "carrying capacity" for capital games and making it more difficult for ordinary participants to discern true intentions from surface data.
● Sentiment Signals and Overall Risk Appetite: Currently, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is -0.1605%, indicating a slight discount in the U.S. spot market relative to the external market, reflecting a cautious attitude from institutions and compliant funds towards short-term risks. When this indicator is combined with the ETH whale deleveraging and USDC burn, it shows that overall risk appetite is in a cautious contraction range. The "active appearance" brought by high-frequency trading and technical expansion on-chain has not fully translated into aggressive accumulation actions on the emotional dimension.
From the White House to a16z: Policy Winds and AI Narrative Raise the Ceiling of the Settlement Layer
● Symbolic Significance of the White House's "Cryptocurrency Capital" Statement: The White House recently declared that the U.S. is becoming the "world's cryptocurrency capital," sending a clear friendly signal to the industry at the discourse level. This statement does not equate to a complete regulatory relaxation but symbolically reinforces the expectation that "the U.S. will not be absent from the competition for crypto infrastructure," helping to restore industry confidence that was previously damaged by frequent enforcement actions.
● Regulatory Evolution and Time Lag Risks: The U.S. crypto regulatory environment is still slowly evolving, with uncertainties in both congressional bills and regulatory agency execution details. Positive policy discourse does not mean that actual benefits will be realized immediately; the industry needs to be wary of the time lag risk of "loose rhetoric—slow implementation—market disappointment." Therefore, when interpreting the White House's stance, it is essential to view it more as a medium- to long-term directional guide rather than a hard constraint signal that immediately changes business models or capital allocations.
● a16z's Prediction on AI Judgment Mechanisms: a16z Crypto suggested that "AI judgment mechanisms are expected to alleviate bottlenecks in prediction market settlements," pointing to the efficiency bottlenecks in complex on-chain contracts, especially prediction markets, in event adjudication, information gathering, and dispute arbitration. If AI can reliably participate in these processes, it will significantly enhance the scalability of prediction markets and broader DeFi contracts, thereby increasing the frequency and demand for calls on the underlying settlement and coordination layers.
● AI, Prediction Markets, and Amplified Demand for Ethereum: With the development of AI and prediction markets, Ethereum's high security and strong programmability will become a natural foundation for executing complex contracts and settling results. The high throughput and low fees operating environment provides the infrastructure guarantee for large-scale micropayments, automated trading, and event-driven contracts. The resonance of warming policy discourse and technical narratives gives Ethereum potential upward space to accommodate larger transaction and settlement demands in the future digitalization process of global economic activities.
The Active Value of On-Chain Activity: What Ethereum Needs to Prove
● Comprehensive Assessment of Active Sustainability: The current high throughput and low fees, combined with events like the USDC burn of 50 million and the whale's one-time sale of 11,190 ETH, create a complex picture of "technical expansion, dollar contraction, and leverage downgrading." From a sustainability perspective, high performance itself has long-term attributes, while dollar liquidity and leverage positions are more cyclical in nature. Whether future activity can be maintained depends on whether real demand can fill the potential declines in strategic and leveraged trading.
● Distinguishing Technical Expansion from Noise Trading: The performance improvements brought by Ethereum's scaling route are objectively present, but in data interpretation, it is crucial to be wary of equating "technical success" with "demand explosion." Low-value, repetitive, and purely strategic trades are naturally amplified in a low-fee environment. Without classification and filtering, it is easy to misinterpret noise as high-quality growth, leading to overly optimistic conclusions.
● The Narrative of the Settlement Layer with Coexisting Opportunities and Constraints: In an environment where policies are gradually warming and macro uncertainties coexist, Ethereum's settlement layer narrative is in a phase of "higher ceilings being raised, but short-term constraints." On one hand, new narratives such as RWA, prediction markets, and AI arbitration continuously build a higher ceiling for its future demand; on the other hand, uncertainties regarding high interest rates, tightening dollars, and the pace of regulatory implementation are suppressing the influx of large new funds and the willingness of real businesses to go on-chain in the short term.
● Core Dimensions for Investors to Focus On: For investors, a single transaction volume metric is no longer sufficient to support decision-making. It is more worthwhile to pay attention to changes in on-chain real demand and capital structure, including: the evolution of contract types and interaction objects, net inflows and outflows of dollar liquidity, the proportion of long-term funds versus short-term leverage, and the roles of dollar tokens like USDC and ETH itself in different application scenarios. Only by observing structural improvements in these dimensions, rather than just a spike in transaction numbers, can one more confidently assess the true value of Ethereum's current on-chain activity.
Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
