From January 19 to 23 Eastern Time, XRP spot ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $40.64 million for the first time in a single week, breaking the previous trend of continuous net inflows since its launch, drawing market attention. Structurally, this round of capital withdrawal mainly stemmed from Grayscale XRP ETF (GXRP) with a net outflow of $55.3892 million for the week, partially offset by Bitwise XRP ETF's net inflow of about $8.6922 million. Measured against a total net asset value of $1.36 billion, accounting for about 1.17% of XRP's overall market value, this pullback is limited in absolute scale but stands in stark contrast to the historical cumulative net inflow of $1.23 billion: is this merely a technical pullback in a strong trend, or an early signal that risk appetite is beginning to contract?
Increased Selling Pressure on GXRP and Volume Boundaries
● Capital Structure Breakdown: According to SoSoValue data, from January 19 to 23 Eastern Time, GXRP recorded a net outflow of $55.3892 million for the week, while Bitwise XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of about $8.6922 million during the same period. After offsetting the two, the overall XRP spot ETF showed a weekly net outflow of about $40.64 million. This structure of “large redemptions on one side and small subscriptions on the other” indicates that current capital is not experiencing a full-scale stampede, but rather a rebalancing between brands and products, with the dominant direction still being a net reduction in positions.
● Impact Boundary Assessment: Currently, the total net asset value of the XRP spot ETF is approximately $1.36 billion, which only accounts for about 1.17% of XRP's overall market value. This means that even with a net outflow of tens of millions of dollars in a single week, the direct supply pressure on the on-chain spot market remains controllable in magnitude. The larger impact often lies in the “signal effect”—the change in risk appetite presented by compliant funds through the ETF channel can amplify resonance in the secondary market on an emotional level.
● Position in Historical Curve: Since its launch, the XRP spot ETF has historically accumulated a net inflow of $1.23 billion. This week’s net outflow of about $40.64 million is roughly a small slice of the previously accumulated inflow. From a time series perspective, this is the first noticeable “turnaround” in the capital curve, which is not enough to change the overall long-term pattern of net inflows, but at a phase peak or in an overheated emotional zone, it is often seen as an important turning point signal indicating that capital is beginning to test withdrawal and verify market absorption capacity.
The Resonance of Bitcoin and Ethereum Both Losing Value
● Data Characteristics of Synchronous Multi-Asset Outflows: During the same time window as XRP, leading crypto asset ETFs also experienced significant outflows. Statistics show that Bitcoin-related ETFs had a total net outflow of about $1.328 billion that week, while Ethereum-related ETFs recorded a weekly net outflow of about $611 million. In this context, the net outflow of about $40.64 million from the XRP ETF can be considered within a larger asset pool, revealing a coordinated withdrawal of funds across BTC, ETH, and XRP, rather than isolated “landmines” in individual targets.
● Relative Comparison of Capital Preferences: In absolute terms, the weekly net outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs are much higher than that of XRP, but considering their respective sizes and market values, all three exhibit a common characteristic of withdrawing some capital exposure from high-beta crypto assets at the ETF level. For XRP, this round of net outflow appears more like a participatory response to a broad “risk reduction” action, indicating that its ETF capital behavior is being incorporated into a more macro asset allocation framework, rather than facing a fundamental blow alone.
● Macro De-risking Clues: While specific drivers have not been fully disclosed, it can be directionally inferred that this round of collective net outflows from ETFs is likely related to the macro risk asset pullback and the repricing of future interest rate paths and liquidity environments. When the market reassesses expectations for interest rate hikes, economic growth resilience, or geopolitical uncertainties, ETFs of high-volatility risk assets like BTC, ETH, and XRP often become the preferred tools for institutions to quickly adjust overall risk exposure, rather than decisions based on deep fundamental research of individual varieties.
The Erosion of Long-Term Holding Mindset and Faith Assets
● Conflict Between Buy-and-Hold and Short-Term Subscriptions: CZ once pointed out, “Few strategies can outperform simple buy-and-hold.” This view represents the long-termism mindset of many early participants in the crypto industry. However, current ETF data shows characteristics of high-frequency subscriptions and short-term speculation: funds rapidly enter and exit through compliant products, attempting to leverage price fluctuations for swing trading. This creates a clear tension with the long-term trend-following advocated by “buy-and-hold,” amplifying the short-term impact of capital inflows and outflows on price and sentiment.
● Emotional Attributes of Faith-Based Targets: Robinhood CIO Stephanie Gilde described Tesla stock as more of a “faith-based target.” A similar narrative is now partially applied by the market to BTC, some overvalued tech stocks, and high-volatility crypto assets including XRP, where prices are often driven more by emotion and faith at certain stages rather than cash flow discounting or traditional valuation systems. In this context, ETF funds may flock in during “faith highs” and collectively cash out when emotions recede and liquidity tightens.
● From Faith Pursuit to Liquidity Priority: When the market environment shifts from “pursuing faith-based targets” to “emphasizing liquidity and certainty,” crypto assets in ETFs are often the first to be reduced. On one hand, ETFs provide efficient, low-friction exit channels; on the other hand, for institutions, reducing ETF holdings allows for rapid contraction of risk asset exposure without touching underlying spot custody and on-chain operations. The recent weekly net outflow from XRP can be seen as one of the specific manifestations of this preference shift in segmented assets.
Emotional Amplification of Short Selling in Derivatives
● Structure of Major Short Positions: On-chain and off-chain data monitoring shows that the top short address on the Hyperliquid platform currently has a total short position of about $246 million, with about 47.8% of the exposure in BTC and as much as about 42% in ETH. Such concentrated and cross-asset short positions indicate that some leading funds in the derivatives market are clearly leaning towards defensive and short-selling directions, rather than neutral hedging or single-event driven strategies, which aligns with the general trend of net outflows from high-beta assets on the ETF side.
● Time Overlap Risk Signals: This short address recently added 14.5 BTC shorts, an action that roughly coincides with the net outflow phase of BTC, ETH, and XRP ETFs. Although a direct causal relationship cannot be inferred, it can at least be viewed as an auxiliary confirmation of rising risk sentiment—that is, while funds are withdrawing from compliant ETFs, large accounts in the derivatives market are also choosing to hedge or amplify downward expectations through leveraged shorting.
● Amplification of ETF and Contract Market Linkage: When simultaneous net outflows from the ETF side and large short positions being added in the derivatives market occur, the overall market volatility is often amplified. On one hand, ETF redemptions may bring potential pressure from selling the underlying assets; on the other hand, the accumulation of shorts in the contract market can trigger a chain of liquidations and margin calls when prices fall. For XRP, although the ETF size only accounts for about 1.17% of the market value, under the dual resonance of “spot position reduction + derivatives shorting,” the short-term price volatility range and tail downside risks may be widened.
The First “Turnaround” of XRP Capital Curve
● From Unidirectional Net Inflows to First Clear Pullback: Since its launch, the XRP spot ETF has attracted approximately $1.23 billion in historical cumulative net inflows, and this capital curve previously showed a unidirectional upward trend. This round of approximately $40.64 million in net outflow for a single week marks the first clear “turnaround” in this curve, indicating the end of the early concentrated inflow phase, with some funds beginning to realize profits or reduce position risks through compliant channels.
● Phase Profit-Taking or Trend Turning Point: In terms of scale, this week’s net outflow is still relatively small compared to cumulative net inflows, resembling more of a phase profit-taking and rebalancing rather than a confirmed trend retreat. However, in the context of a tightening macro environment and widespread ETF pullbacks across the market, this “small-scale turnaround” could also evolve into an early signal of a trend turning point, with the key being whether funds continue to choose to exit or re-enter after adjustments.
● Potential Impact on Medium to Long-Term Pricing Power: If the XRP spot ETF continues to record net outflows in the coming weeks, and the scale gradually expands, it could impact XRP’s medium to long-term pricing power and discourse structure: first, the marginal role of the ETF in price discovery will weaken, with more pricing power flowing back to on-chain and OTC large holders; second, the core narrative of “compliant funds continuously entering the market” will be weakened, affecting institutions' and new funds' willingness to allocate to XRP. Currently, a single data point is insufficient for conclusions, and continuous tracking of the funding trajectory over the next few weeks or even 1-2 months is necessary.
The De-risking Chain from XRP to the Entire Market
● XRP is Just a Part of a Larger Wave: Considering the current data, the synchronous net outflows of XRP, BTC, and ETH ETFs, combined with the $246 million cross-asset short position increase from the top short address on the Hyperliquid platform, all point in the same direction—this round of weekly net outflow from XRP should be viewed as a part of a larger “de-risking” wave. In such an environment, the positive or negative narratives of a single variety are often drowned out by the rhythm of macro funds.
● Observation Framework for the Next 1-3 Months: In the next 1 to 3 months, funding behavior changes can be continuously monitored along three main lines: first, the net inflow/outflow rhythm and direction from the ETF side, focusing on whether it is a short-term pullback or evolves into a multi-week or even multi-month sustained withdrawal; second, the position direction and leverage levels of large accounts on leading derivatives platforms, to determine whether the market is simply hedging or actively betting on downside; third, the sensitivity changes of the spot market prices to capital inflows and outflows, i.e., whether the price elasticity brought by equivalent capital flows is amplified or dulled.
● Making Decisions Between Data and Sentiment: Currently, there is a lack of complete disclosure information regarding single driving factors and specific institutional behaviors, and hastily attributing this round of net outflows to a single event or conspiracy logic carries high risks. A more prudent approach is to distinguish between structural capital withdrawals and short-term emotional fluctuations: the former often manifests as multi-week, multi-asset, consistent directional capital flows and position adjustments; the latter is more characterized by sharp fluctuations and narrative switches within a single week or several days. Within this framework, investors should rely on continuous data and rhythm changes rather than a single net outflow or narrative to adjust their risk exposure to XRP and the entire crypto asset sector.
Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
