From January 19 to 23, in the UTC+8 time zone, two types of funds made distinctly different choices on the same timeline: on one side, on-chain whales significantly adjusted their asset allocations, rapidly shifting between BTC, ETH, and the gold token XAUt; on the other side, BTC and ETH spot ETFs recorded the most intense net outflow of funds this year. During this period, a few ETFs, such as SOL, saw slight inflows against the trend, creating a stark contrast. This article focuses on the core contradiction between the whales increasing their ETH holdings against the backdrop of collective outflows from ETFs and the actions of institutions withdrawing through ETF products, attempting to depict the reallocation of funds between "risk assets" and "safe-haven assets" based on on-chain trading data and ETF filing data, rather than making directional predictions about future prices.
The Funding Trajectory of Whales Selling Bitcoin to Buy Ethereum
● Funding Path Breakdown: Between January 19 and 23, the on-chain address 0xeA00 exchanged 120 BTC for 3,623 ETH, with an estimated corresponding amount of about $10.68 million. On-chain records indicate that this was a large-scale adjustment completed in a concentrated manner, rather than a long-term phased operation, showing a clear judgment of the relative value between BTC and ETH. However, we can only objectively describe the fact that the position shifted from Bitcoin to Ethereum and cannot extend from on-chain data to the specific investment logic behind it.
● Significant Accumulation During the Same Period: Almost simultaneously with 0xeA00, another anonymous whale recently purchased 3,983.6 XAUt, with an estimated total value of about $20.23 million USDT, while also increasing their holdings of 8,547 ETH, corresponding to about $25.35 million USDT. The total new allocation exceeding $45 million USDT, with part placed in on-chain gold and part in ETH, significantly expanded this whale's risk exposure in crypto assets and gold tokens, making it one of the most representative on-chain addresses in this round of capital reallocation.
● Historical Style Reference: The research report mentions that this ETH whale incurred a loss of about $13.73 million due to high purchases and low sales in November 2025, reflecting that it is not a conservative "steady trader," but rather an aggressive style willing to endure significant volatility and drawdowns. Comparing this history with the current large-scale accumulation of ETH further highlights its high-risk tolerance preference, but this style judgment is based solely on past results and does not constitute a preset conclusion about its future behavior or profitability.
● Motivation Boundary Reminder: It is important to emphasize that on-chain behavior can clearly depict "what was bought, what was sold, and the approximate price range of transactions," but cannot tell us "why buy now" or "what the next step will be." Whether it is 0xeA00 selling BTC for ETH or another whale simultaneously increasing holdings in XAUt and ETH, we can only confirm the changes in positions based on public data and cannot deduce whether there are complex hedging arrangements regarding the macro environment, regulatory trends, or derivative positions behind it.
The Configuration Picture of Increasing Holdings in Gold Tokens and ETH
● Profit Status of Gold Positions: According to the report, the whale increasing its XAUt holdings has an average cost price of about $4,780 for its XAUt holdings, and with the spot gold price breaking $5,000, its current unrealized profit is about $1.83 million. This means its gold token position is in a significantly profitable range, providing a certain "safety cushion" and space for continued holding or rebalancing, objectively strengthening the performance of the "anti-volatility" side of its portfolio.
● Implications of the Combination Structure: During the same period, this whale heavily invested in XAUt while also purchasing 8,547 ETH, presenting a structural characteristic of "holding safe-haven assets in one hand and betting on technology growth assets in the other." From the results, this resembles a configuration method that embraces two distinctly different risk characteristics: gold and Ethereum. However, in the absence of more background information, we can only describe this "structural contrast" and cannot infer whether it is a hedge, leverage amplification, or simply a long-term bullish outlook.
● New Highs in Gold and On-Chain Gold: In an environment where the spot gold price has surpassed $5,000 and traditional market volatility has intensified, some funds have chosen to carry gold exposure through tokens like XAUt, effectively "moving gold onto the chain." For the aforementioned whale, as volatility in the crypto market increases, allocating over $20 million USDT to on-chain gold while simultaneously increasing ETH may reflect a search for some balance between "safety cushion" and "high beta assets," but this possibility remains at the structural observation level rather than a conclusion about its intentions.
● Correlation Rather Than Causation: Currently, there is no direct evidence in the public information to establish a causal chain between global macroeconomic variables and this whale's specific allocation behavior. We can only say that against the backdrop of gold prices reaching new highs and increased volatility in the crypto market, there has been a case of combined accumulation of "on-chain gold + ETH." This synchronicity constitutes a correlation phenomenon, but is not sufficient to prove that macro volatility directly drove its reallocation decision.
ETF's Weekly Outflow of Nearly $2 Billion
● Concentrated Outflow of Ethereum ETFs: During the same week from January 19 to 23, the Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $600.7 million to $611 million (with slight differences among different data sources). Regardless of which data set is used, this scale is in a high-pressure range since the inception of the ETH spot ETF, indicating that institutions have significantly reduced their Ethereum risk exposure through the ETF framework in a short time, contrasting sharply with the whales increasing their holdings against the trend.
● Historical Second Highest Outflow for Bitcoin ETFs: The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.33 billion during the same period, according to SoSoValue statistics, marking the second highest weekly outflow in history. The institution directly commented that "this week’s outflow from the Bitcoin ETF reached the second highest in history, indicating a deterioration in short-term market sentiment," indirectly confirming that mainstream institutions are clearly leaning towards reducing positions and adopting a wait-and-see approach, which is misaligned with the "buying the dip" behavior of some on-chain whales.
● Divergence in SOL and XRP ETFs: Unlike the significant outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs, the SOL spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about $9.57 million during this week, with Fidelity's FSOL contributing approximately $5.28 million in a single week, indicating that some funds are attempting to seek relatively strong alternatives while mainstream assets are under pressure; meanwhile, the XRP ETF experienced its first weekly net outflow of about $406,000. Odaily Planet Daily believes this may reflect that regulatory uncertainties surrounding XRP are affecting some funds, and although the scale is small, the directional reversal itself is significant.
● Correlation Without Confirmed Causation: Whether it is the collective outflow from BTC and ETH ETFs or the slight inflow into SOL and the first outflow from the XRP ETF, currently, they can only be viewed as "synchronously occurring market phenomena" alongside spot price fluctuations. Existing public data is insufficient to prove a one-way causal relationship such as "ETF fund outflows directly led to price corrections" or "price declines triggered fund redemptions." In this article, we only retain statements at the correlation level, avoiding inferences beyond the data support range.
Market Perception of BlackRock as a Cash Machine
● Weight of IBIT in Bitcoin Outflows: In the approximately $1.33 billion net outflow from the Bitcoin spot ETF in a single week, BlackRock's IBIT contributed about $537 million, accounting for about 40% of the overall outflow. This means that a single issuer accounted for nearly half of the fund withdrawals, making "Is BlackRock significantly reducing its Bitcoin exposure?" a focal point of market discourse, even though public information has not disclosed more details about its internal asset allocation logic.
● ETHA Dominates Ethereum Outflows: In the approximately $600 million net outflow from the Ethereum spot ETF, BlackRock's ETHA contributed about $432 million, accounting for about 70% of the total market outflows. The high proportion of leading institutional products in the ETH fund withdrawals makes the market more inclined to view it as a representative signal of "institutional attitude shift," even though this perception is more based on fund volume and brand influence rather than confirmed strategy adjustment statements.
● Amplification Effect of Concentrated Fund Outflows: When a single issuer occupies a disproportionately high share in the net outflow structure, the market often interprets it as "leading institutions no longer optimistic about the short-term outlook." This emotional amplification effect creates a feedback loop with media dissemination, further suppressing risk appetite. However, it is important to clarify that we are only discussing "how concentrated fund outflows affect market perception" and are not making any inferences about BlackRock's internal investment committee decisions, risk models, or long-term judgments on crypto assets.
● Discrepancy Between Whale Accumulation and ETF Redemptions: Notably, while BlackRock's ETHA experienced a net outflow of $432 million in a single week, the aforementioned whale on-chain simultaneously increased its holdings by 8,547 ETH, and another address, 0xeA00, exchanged 120 BTC for 3,623 ETH. On the same asset, one end saw large redemptions through the ETF channel, while the other end saw on-chain whales concentrating their purchases, forming a typical sample of capital divergence and highlighting the inconsistent role recognition of ETH among different capital groups.
Two Funding Routes of On-Chain Whales and ETF Funds
● Synchronized on the Timeline: If we place January 19 to 23 on a timeline, on one side, 0xeA00 exchanged 120 BTC for 3,623 ETH, and another whale spent about $25.35 million USDT to buy 8,547 ETH and allocated about $20.23 million USDT to 3,983.6 XAUt; on the other side, the BTC spot ETF saw a weekly outflow of $1.33 billion, and the ETH spot ETF saw outflows exceeding $600 million. The two sets of data are highly overlapping in time but are distinctly opposite in direction, shaping a clear contrast between "on-chain accumulation vs ETF redemptions."
● Structural Differences Rather Than Simple Betting: From a funding attribute perspective, on-chain whales primarily use their own funds, have a higher risk appetite, greater flexibility in investment duration, and relatively limited short-term liquidity needs; while ETF funds more represent broad institutions and qualified investors, needing to manage drawdowns, liquidity, and client sentiment within a compliance framework. This structural difference in risk appetite, duration, and liquidity constraints determines that even if both sides make opposite operations at the same point in time, it should not be simply understood as a "direct bet," but rather as each party's optimal choice under different constraints.
● Insights from the Retail Investor Perspective: Retail investors often focus more on the price movements themselves but may overlook the direction of capital structure migration behind them. The simultaneous occurrence of "whales buying ETH against the trend + allocating to XAUt" and "ETFs collectively reducing positions in BTC/ETH" provides a relatively clear sample for observing the multi-layered capital game in the crypto market. Understanding who is selling, who is buying, and through what vehicles they enter and exit the market often helps build risk awareness more than simply guessing the next candlestick.
● Data Boundaries and Compliance Reminder: It should be reiterated that all judgments in this article are based on the public on-chain data and official ETF filing/statistical data cross-referenced, without involving any form of insider information or citing any undisclosed regulatory trends. All analyses regarding capital behavior remain at the level of results and structure, avoiding unfounded inferences about individual subjective intentions and future policy directions.
After the Change of Hands: The Next Steps for ETH and Gold
This week's funding picture is relatively clear: on one hand, mainstream institutions are concentrating their reductions through BTC and ETH spot ETFs, with the Bitcoin ETF seeing a net outflow of $1.33 billion in a single week and the Ethereum ETF experiencing outflows exceeding $600 million, with BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA contributing approximately 40% and 70% of the outflow shares, respectively; on the other hand, some on-chain whales are counter-cyclically buying ETH while increasing their allocation to XAUt, significantly enhancing their risk exposure against the backdrop of spot gold surpassing $5,000. The change of hands among different vehicles constitutes the core scene of this market divergence.
Rather than viewing the current situation as a dramatic turning point of a one-way trend, or as "institutions fleeing and whales bottom-fishing," it is more appropriate to understand it as a process of capital repositioning between risk assets and safe-haven assets. Whether through ETF redemptions or large on-chain adjustments, these actions are more about weighing adjustments under their respective constraints and risk preferences, rather than providing an ultimate denial or endorsement of a particular asset class.
In this context, a more prudent view is that short-term prices remain highly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and the opposing actions of whales and ETF funds are more likely to become potential "fuel" for future volatility, rather than being simply interpreted as clear bullish or bearish signals. For ordinary investors, it is more important to continuously track ETF fund flows, movements of large on-chain addresses, and changes in gold-related asset allocations over the coming weeks and months, rather than sensationalizing or mystifying a single whale purchase or weekly ETF outflow event. Making independent judgments based on public data and a full understanding of risks is often more valuable than chasing the story itself.
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