In the Eastern Eight Time Zone this week, on-chain analyst "Ember" detected a massive fund flow exceeding 45 million USDT in the secondary market, purchasing gold-backed token XAUt and ETH, which has drawn significant market attention. According to public data, this address bought 3983.6 XAUt for approximately 20.23 million USDT, and subsequently increased its total XAUt holdings to 7369 tokens, with an average cost of about 4780 USD and an unrealized profit of approximately 1.83 million USD; at the same time, it established a long position of 8547 ETH for about 25.35 million USDT, with an average entry price of around 2966 USD. Previously, in a transaction involving ETH in November 2025, this address recorded a loss of about 13.73 million USD, but now it has significantly increased its position in gold tokens while re-entering ETH. This shift from "huge losses to heavy positions in gold + mainstream assets" has been interpreted by many observers as a complex signal of both risk aversion and growth bets.
Profile of the 45 Million USDT Fund Movement
● Fund Movement: On-chain data shows that during this operation, the whale used approximately 20.23 million USDT to buy 3983.6 XAUt, with an average transaction price of about 5080 USD, while also purchasing 8547 ETH for about 25.35 million USDT, with an average entry price of around 2966 USD. The total amount spent exceeds 45 million USDT, with transactions occurring closely in time and covering both risk-averse and high-volatility assets, constituting a typical "combinatorial heavy position" behavior, providing a clearer sample for observing its risk preferences and asset allocation strategy.
● Position Structure: According to statistics from multiple data sources, including TechFlow, after this increase, the address's total holdings of XAUt have reached 7369 tokens, with an overall average cost of about 4780 USD. Based on current prices, the unrealized profit is approximately 1.83 million USD. This data indicates that its position in gold tokens is not a short-term trial but a systematic layout after multiple increases, and it is currently in a clearly profitable state, allowing for greater operational flexibility in subsequent fluctuations.
● Gold Exposure: With approximately 7369 XAUt valued at about 37.03 million USD, this whale's exposure to gold tokens is quite substantial, nearing the 25.35 million USDT invested in the new ETH position. Considering the single transaction amount exceeding 20 million USDT, the weight and strategic position of XAUt in its asset portfolio have shifted from "marginal allocation" to a core position close to ETH. This high-weight allocation to on-chain gold has objectively amplified its sensitivity to fluctuations in gold prices and RWA sentiment.
Asset Shift from Huge ETH Losses to Increased Gold Positions
● Historical Losses: Public reports indicate that this address conducted large-scale ETH transactions in November 2025, resulting in a loss of about 13.73 million USD. This record suggests a historically aggressive attitude towards high-volatility mainstream assets, willing to participate heavily in trending markets but also enduring significant drawdowns during cyclical reversals. This allows for a preliminary sketch of its style characteristics: a higher risk preference, with trading leaning more towards short- to medium-term volatility speculation rather than purely long-term value holding.
● Configuration Comparison: Unlike the nearly "single-line operation" betting on ETH in November 2025, in this round of operations, the whale significantly increased its XAUt position while restarting its ETH long, forming a dual bet of "gold tokens + mainstream blockchain assets." The results show that it has not completely distanced itself from high Beta assets but has retained its bullish expectations for ETH while introducing XAUt, which is linked to traditional risk-averse assets, to hedge against some macro and market volatility risks. This is more akin to a rebalancing attempt within a high-risk preference framework.
● Sentiment Interpretation: Some on-chain analysts have commented that this whale has a clear "buy high, sell low" characteristic in the past, and the current large-scale shift to gold tokens may indicate a rise in market risk aversion sentiment. However, it is important to emphasize that existing information can only support the observation of "changes in sentiment"—that is, a shift from a single high-volatility exposure to a consideration of risk-averse assets—and is insufficient to infer its subjective motives or clear strategies. Understanding this behavior as an adjustment in sentiment structure is more prudent than simply asserting a complete shift to conservatism or a comprehensive bearish outlook on risk assets.
Gold Prices Breaking 5000 USD and the Resonance of On-Chain Gold
● Macroeconomic Background: In the real market, gold prices have surpassed the 5000 USD mark, setting a new historical high, making gold once again the focus of global asset allocation. The continuous rise in gold prices has not only prompted traditional financial institutions to increase their layouts in physical and derivative products but has also created spillover effects on the crypto market through sentiment and asset rebalancing logic, leading to additional attention and capital inflow into tokens linked to gold and related RWA products.
● XAUt Attributes: XAUt, as a tokenized asset anchored to physical gold, follows the fluctuations of international gold prices and is viewed by many institutions and individuals as a convenient tool for gaining on-chain exposure to gold. Market observations indicate that during the phase when gold prices approached 5000 USD, trading volume significantly increased, showing that some funds are allocating to traditional risk-averse assets through on-chain tools. For funds originally focused on the crypto ecosystem, XAUt provides a compromise path between "on-chain availability" and "anchoring to offline assets."
● Synchronous Observation: This whale's significant increase in XAUt positions during the phase of new gold price highs is almost synchronous with the strong upward movement of gold, appearing more as a passive response to existing price trends and mainstream market narratives: in the context of a consensus breakthrough in gold prices, it tilted its positions towards gold tokens to capitalize on hedging and potential excess returns. Existing data cannot prove that its behavior has a "causal drive" on gold prices or on-chain gold prices; a more reasonable understanding is that this whale, as one of the large funds, chose to increase its exposure to gold in an environment of new gold price highs, participating in a broader macro risk aversion wave.
Whale Movements, RWA Narratives, and Capital Redistribution
● RWA Track Background: Placing this whale's large purchases of XAUt and ETH within the larger RWA narrative reveals that real-world assets, including on-chain gold, are attracting new capital attention. Whether from institutions or high-net-worth individuals, their asset allocation is expanding from purely "on-chain native tokens" to a mixed structure of "on-chain native + real asset mapping." Gold tokens provide a concrete, traceable vehicle for this trend by offering price anchors linked to offline bulk assets.
● Case Signals: Recent reports indicate that the project ETHZilla is exploring the purchase of aircraft engines to enter the RWA field, and a trader has taken a 5x leverage long position on 727.25 PAXG, currently with an unrealized profit of about 702,000 USD. These cases are viewed by the market as side evidence of the rising interest in gold and RWA. It is important to note that these cases come from a single source and are essentially individual behaviors, serving only as reference samples for sentiment and topicality, and cannot represent the mainstream capital paths or institutional strategy frameworks of the entire market.
● Stablecoin Repricing: From a broader liquidity perspective, USDC has seen a net redemption of about 1.3 billion tokens in the past week, reflecting that some funds are exiting dollar-pegged assets and seeking better risk and return allocation directions. In this context, some funds may be migrating from tools like USDC to risk assets including ETH, as well as RWA and gold-related assets like XAUt and PAXG, forming structural redistribution. The whale's large purchases of XAUt and ETH at this time are likely part of this redistribution process, choosing a combination of "mainstream blockchain + on-chain gold" to absorb some liquidity leaving the stablecoin pool.
Indicator Effects and Boundaries of Whale Behavior
● Sentiment Indicators: In the past few crypto cycles, the concentrated buying and selling behavior of large on-chain addresses has often been viewed by the market as a sign of "smart money" movements or sentiment indicators. This is because such addresses typically have stronger risk tolerance and information acquisition channels, and their concentrated building or clearing of positions often coincides with phase trend nodes, thus being retrospectively endowed with the aura of "forward judgment." However, from a statistical and sample perspective, this "smart money narrative" does not always hold; there are significant strategic differences among whales, and there are also frequent occurrences of clear missed opportunities or substantial losses.
● Impact Boundaries: In this event, although the whale used over 45 million USDT in a single operation, making it highly topical at the individual level, its actual impact on the overall market value and short-term prices of ETH and XAUt remains difficult to quantify. Compared to macro liquidity, derivative leverage levels, and overall capital risk preferences, the operation of a single address appears more like adding an observable "sentiment sample" rather than a decisive force influencing trends. Therefore, elevating this operation directly to a "trend reversal signal" is clearly an exaggeration and contradicts the principle of prudent analysis.
● Investment Reference: For ordinary investors, the value of referencing whale behavior lies in using it as a side mirror to observe gold price trends, ETH positions, and the overall liquidity environment, rather than simply replicating its position structure or trading rhythm. Currently, we do not know the true identity of this address, the source of its funds, nor can we ascertain whether it will reduce, increase, or hedge through derivatives in the future. Recklessly following may amplify the volatility risk of personal accounts. A more reasonable approach is to view such addresses as auxiliary signals of sentiment and capital flow, combined with one's independent judgment of the macro environment, ETH fundamentals, and the RWA track.
Rising Risk Aversion Narrative or Another Side of High-Leverage Speculation
Overall, the same whale, after experiencing a loss of about 13.73 million USD in ETH, has again used over 45 million USDT to significantly increase its positions in gold token XAUt and ETH, presenting a dual bet on risk-averse assets and growth assets at the asset level: on one hand, the position of approximately 37.03 million USD and 7369 XAUt deeply binds it to gold prices and gold sentiment; on the other hand, the addition of 8547 ETH long positions continues its aggressive layout in mainstream blockchain assets. The coexistence of these two assets in the portfolio reflects that it has not completely contracted its risk preference but is attempting to use gold tokens to "lay a safety net" for high-volatility exposures against the backdrop of rising risk aversion narratives.
From a broader capital perspective, this set of trading signals more reflects the sustained warming of interest in gold and the RWA track, as well as a tentative reallocation towards assets like ETH following corrections in mainstream assets. The phenomena of gold prices breaking 5000 USD, increased trading volume in on-chain gold, and a net redemption of 1.3 billion USDC in a single week collectively form a backdrop of "traditional risk-averse assets warming and on-chain RWA expansion," with the whale's actions unfolding as individual samples against this backdrop rather than as a new narrative source driving the market.
It is important to emphasize that both the label of the whale as "buying high and selling low" and the notion that "turning to gold means full risk aversion" carry significant retrospective and emotional components. Current public information lacks key elements such as its identity, source of funds, and subsequent strategies, making any interpretation of motives or trend predictions based on subjective speculation prone to bias. For ordinary investors, a more prudent approach is to view whale movements as a window for observing market sentiment and capital redistribution, rather than as a direct basis for decision-making. After independently assessing gold prices, ETH positions, and the overall liquidity environment, investors should make allocation choices based on their own risk tolerance.
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