In the East 8 Time Zone this week, Binance Alpha launched two new tokens, PENGUIN and memes, which quickly recorded significant gains in a short period: PENGUIN surged over 20% at one point, with a market cap of approximately $59.2 million; memes rose over 25% in the initial phase, with a market cap of about $11.92 million. The new tokens completed a parabolic rise in price and market cap in a short time, igniting a frenzy of emotions on the trading interface while also sharpening the question of "where does long-term value come from?" New meme assets, lacking mature fundamentals and verifiable cash flows, were thrust onto a stage of high volatility, high leverage, and high speculation on their first day of listing. This article will revolve around a core question: what does this wave of meme frenzy, represented by PENGUIN and memes, reflect about the current market's risk appetite and emotional structure, and what underlying logic of buying and clearing does it imply?

The Price Surge and Entry Effect of PENGUIN and memes

● Initial Pricing and Short-term Surge: According to briefing data, PENGUIN's initial price on Binance Alpha was about 0.067 USDT, while memes had an initial price of about 0.01 USDT. Within a short time after listing, PENGUIN's price quickly exceeded a 20% increase, and memes' short-term increase surpassed 25%. This rise from "a few cents" created a striking visual impact on the interface, reinforcing new users' intuitive impression that "low prices mean high multiples," generating a strong illusion of wealth and topics for early buyers to share.

● Market Cap Size and Chase Scenarios: From the market cap perspective, after a short-term surge, PENGUIN's valuation was pushed up to about $59.2 million, while memes stood at about $11.92 million, creating a stark contrast in size and trading depth. The larger PENGUIN resembled a main stage quickly ignited by funds, with its narrative amplified, while the smaller market cap of memes provided a more flexible short-term battlefield for aggressive funds. On the trading interface, scenes of the order book being rapidly filled and emptied alternated, with scenarios of rushing, chasing, and passively buying at high positions playing out on a minute-by-minute basis.

● Amplifying Role of the Alpha Entry: As a new entry point for a leading trading platform, Binance Alpha inherently possesses "amplifier" attributes in terms of liquidity and attention. On one hand, the unified entry directs a large amount of curious and speculative traffic towards a very small number of new tokens, making every order and transaction on the first day extremely amplified by emotions; on the other hand, the initial market-making depth and order size are limited, allowing medium-sized funds to significantly influence K-line patterns, further attracting technical and emotional traders to follow. The result is that the price on the first day is highly sensitive to news, emotions, and order changes, with new tokens rapidly shifting from "price discovery" to an emotional release game.

The Speculative Feast of Memes: Short-term Hot Money and Unanchored Valuation

● Motivations of Short-term Funds: For new meme assets like PENGUIN and memes, the core demand of short-term funds is to seize the "listing bonus" and high volatility premium. First, there is a "the sooner, the better" mentality for new listings, hoping to position themselves in the early stages when depth is not fully established and narratives are just starting; second, they actively embrace short-term volatility of 20%-25% or even greater, viewing it as a trading opportunity ten times that of mainstream coins' daily volatility; third, there is a clear emotional dominance, with many positions not based on project understanding but rather on the group psychology of "everyone is playing" and "missing out means losing out," making the price curve itself the most important basis for entry.

● Lack of Fundamentals and Valuation Dilemma: Unlike traditional assets or mature public chain tokens, PENGUIN and memes currently lack clear, quantifiable fundamental support, whether in terms of cash flow discounting, on-chain usage data, or governance value, making it difficult to form a reliable valuation anchor. Starting from a market cap in the tens of millions, it becomes even harder to explain its reasonable range after a short-term surge using traditional frameworks; valuation appears more like an immediate result of emotional and liquidity resonance. For the funds entering, "valuation rationality" takes a back seat, and "can profits be realized before the next wave of funds arrives" becomes the primary concern.

● Typical Risk Scenarios in a High-Volatility Environment: In this environment, lacking fundamental anchoring and driven by emotions, FOMO, sell-offs, and liquidity vacuums are almost inevitable. The profit samples created by early surges trigger more chasing orders, with FOMO causing transaction volumes to swell in a short time; once some large chips choose to sell off, selling pressure can create a "crash effect" on shallow buy orders; if emotions reverse too quickly, new users withdraw orders, and market-making contracts, the order book may briefly experience a "liquidity vacuum" where buying and selling become impossible, with prices rapidly switching from a limit-up surge to a waterfall-like drop in a very short time.

From Gold Prices to Bitcoin: The Surge of Commodities and the Soil of Memes

● Precious Metals Leading and Cross-Asset Linkage Expectations: According to the briefing, the international gold price has risen over 64% this year, marking the largest annual increase since 1979. Meanwhile, the market cites Tom Lee's view that "the parabolic rise of crypto assets usually follows precious metals." As gold, a traditional safe-haven and value-storing asset, completes a historical-level revaluation, funds naturally turn their attention to higher-beta crypto assets, viewing them as the next stage of the yield baton, significantly raising the overall risk appetite in the crypto market under this cross-asset linkage expectation.

● Bitcoin's Surge and Bullish Signals from Mining Companies: Bitcoin's price recently attempted to break through $90,000 but fell short, closing around $89,627, still positioned within a historical high range. At the same time, Bitcoin mining company Cango recently increased its holdings by 115.4 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 7,873.6 bitcoins, choosing to continue accumulating at this price level, signaling a bullish outlook in the medium to long term. The strength of mainstream asset prices and the "vote of confidence" from mining companies investing real capital together create a strong macro bullish atmosphere, providing a psychological basis for risk appetite to spill over into more marginal and higher-beta assets.

● Risk Appetite Spilling into Memes and Altcoins: As gold and mainstream commodities and leading crypto assets complete their "price demonstration," the previously cautious funds in the market begin to show greater tolerance for the meme and altcoin sectors. In the overall bullish context, investors are more likely to accept the logic of "high volatility for high returns," viewing new coins like PENGUIN and memes as high-leverage derivatives of the crypto bull market. The steady rise of mainstream assets becomes fertile ground for the short-term frenzy of meme coins— as long as the underlying market does not experience a systemic collapse, the short-term trial and error of high-risk peripheral assets seems more "worth the gamble."

Diverging Risk Appetite: Mainstream Easing and New Coin Hedging

● Easing Bearish Sentiment on Mainstream Coins and Continued Bearishness on Altcoins: The briefing shows that market bearish sentiment towards BTC and SOL has significantly eased, which is related to their prices being at high levels for a long time and funds recognizing their fundamental logic; however, there remains a "large-scale bearish" sentiment towards a broader range of altcoins, especially for mid- and small-cap tokens lacking narrative support and liquidity depth. Here, risk appetite shows a clear divergence: on one side, there is relative recognition and observation of leading assets, while on the other side, there is systemic skepticism and defensive shorting of long-tail assets, with new meme coins being pushed to the forefront of this divide.

● New Meme Coins as Hedging and Emotional Outlets: In the overall bullish context, new meme coins like PENGUIN and memes can easily be used as tools for risk hedging and emotional release. For funds that are bullish on the market but worried about a pullback, shorting these overvalued, high-volatility new coins can hedge systemic risks without directly shaking mainstream holdings; for traders dissatisfied with or bearish on the overall market, new coins provide low-cost, quick-feedback shorting targets. The result is that the same token often simultaneously attracts both "retail bulls chasing high prices" and "hedging, speculative institutional or large short positions," making short-term speculation extremely intense.

● Short-term Paths of Long and Short on New Coins: In this structure, new coins often follow a typical path of "pumping and dumping—missing out and chasing—hedging at high positions." Early chips and smart funds realize floating profits and gradually reduce positions by controlling the rhythm of orders and emotions during the first round of surges; subsequently, funds that missed the low positions are passively chasing higher prices under the stimulation of media and community information, raising their average holding costs; meanwhile, some professional traders lay out short positions or structured hedges at high positions, viewing new coins as insurance for overall bullish positions. The forces of long and short complete several rounds of turnover in a very short time, turning the price curve of new coins into a battleground of bullish FOMO and bearish speculation, rather than a simple reflection of supply and demand balance.

Interwoven Narratives: Quantum Security, Dollar Retreat, and Amplified Speculation

● Rising Narrative of Quantum Security: According to Planet Daily, the Ethereum Foundation has elevated "quantum security" to the highest strategic priority, bringing the issue of technical security to the forefront. For the entire crypto industry, this move reinforces the signal that "mainstream public chains are actively addressing future risks," with technological upgrades and security enhancements packaged as a new long-term narrative. Although PENGUIN and memes have no direct connection to quantum security, the broader expectation of "continuous technological iteration and more secure systems" indirectly enhances market trust in the overall crypto asset space.

● De-dollarization Sentiment and Crypto Attractiveness: According to Jinse Finance citing IMF data, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%, a change seen as a sign of rising "de-dollarization" sentiment. As the single hegemonic status of the traditional currency system comes under discussion, some assets leverage this to strengthen their narrative labels of "decentralization, censorship resistance, and cross-border assets." Bitcoin and mainstream public chains are increasingly viewed as supplements or even potential hedging tools to the fiat currency system, which invisibly provides "narrative endorsement" for more peripheral high-risk crypto assets, attracting funds that are skeptical about the prospects of fiat currencies and willing to further allocate in the crypto space.

● The Gambling Effect of Overlapping Macro and Technical Narratives: When the technical picture of "quantum security" overlaps with the macro sentiment of "dollar retreat," the market's tolerance and speculative nature for high-risk crypto assets are overall elevated. Investors are psychologically inclined to view new meme coins as "small bets in the macro backdrop": since mainstream public chains are reinforcing their technological moats and the fiat currency system faces structural challenges, betting on some high-multiple potential chips in this great wave no longer seems so absurd. New meme assets like PENGUIN and memes are packaged as short-term chips that "might catch a distant train" under the halo of overlapping macro monetary and technical narratives, further intensifying the market's speculative impulse.

Bubble or Opportunity: Calm Choices After the Frenzy of New Coins

The price performance of PENGUIN and memes after their launch on Binance Alpha reflects a typical cyclical picture: mainstream assets are strong, macro bullish sentiment is high, risk appetite spills over into memes and altcoins, while new coins are rapidly elevated in the absence of fundamental anchoring, taking on dual roles of emotional release and risk hedging. The surge in market cap from tens of millions to hundreds of millions does not mean that value has been realized; it more showcases the current willingness of funds to take risks on high-beta assets and their trial-and-error thresholds. Behind the soaring K-lines is a collective chase for short-term profits and a collective avoidance of the question of "who will be the last to take the fall."

In this environment, there is significant uncertainty and retracement risk between short-term price parabolas and long-term value realization. On one hand, the paper profits of early buyers may be completely swallowed within a few K-lines; on the other hand, new meme assets lacking moats and sustained narratives find it difficult to maintain their current valuation range after the emotional tide recedes. For traders, when facing new meme coins, it is essential to recognize that this is a game centered on "volatility," rather than a traditional investment in "value": maintaining a light position for trial and error, setting predefined profit-taking and stop-loss ranges, and avoiding unplanned position increases to prevent amplifying a single emotional judgment with leverage at high levels are basic disciplinary bottom lines. At the same time, it is advisable to avoid viewing short-term paper profits as "realized income," but rather as floating profits that may be given back at any time.

Looking ahead to this cycle, the meme sector is likely to repeatedly become an emotional focal point: during the phase of mainstream assets oscillating upward, new meme coins will be repeatedly packaged as accelerators for chasing high prices; however, once the overall market sentiment cools, they will be the first to bear selling pressure, becoming the hardest-hit area for retracement and liquidation. PENGUIN and memes may just be the beginning of this wave, and how they will be remembered depends on whether participants choose to lose themselves in the frenzy or retain a sense of respect for risk amid the noise.

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