On January 24, 2026, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua publicly disclosed his ETH long strategy and leverage position management plan through the media, sparking a new round of discussions in the market. He clearly provided a price framework: building positions around the current level of approximately $3000, with $1000 as the leverage safety threshold below, and planning to actively liquidate near $4500 above, locking risks and returns into a controllable range with a clear interval. Unlike the traditional narrative centered around Bitcoin's four-year halving, his core viewpoint is that in the current context of weakening halving signals, interest rate cut expectations and RWA on-chain are vying for a new dominant narrative, with Ethereum potentially becoming the most critical "main battlefield" in this cycle. The article elaborates on this judgment and attempts to answer two questions: why is an increasing amount of capital betting on ETH to become the biggest beneficiary of this bull market? And how will the long and short game surrounding ETH amplify the risks and opportunities for the entire market in the context of public leverage ledgers, sentiment, and misalignment of chips?
The Fading Four-Year Cycle: Capital Begins to Seek New Anchors
● Marginal dulling of the halving old narrative: In the past several bull markets, Bitcoin's four-year halving was almost regarded as the "astronomical calendar" for market pricing, with miner output halving seen as the total switch for the bull market. However, as the number of halvings increases, the derivatives market matures, and institutional participation deepens, the price elasticity brought by a single supply shock visibly declines, and the market no longer strictly revolves around "X months before and after halving," with the originally clear time coordinates continuously diluted by real trading behavior.
● Structural turning point in macro winds: After a phase of continuous interest rate hikes and high rates suppressing the valuations of risk assets, the global market is currently beginning to reconstruct its pricing system around future interest rate cut expectations. Even without a definitive timeline or probability path for interest rate cuts, capital has shifted from "defending against high rates" to "pricing in a loose environment in advance," with the correlation of equity assets, tech stocks, and crypto assets rising again, moving directionally closer to the starting point of a new liquidity cycle.
● Transition from a single BTC narrative to multi-track rotation: As halving is no longer the only "script," capital is beginning to rotate from a single bet on BTC to making rotational bets across L1, L2, public chain ecosystems, RWA, DeFi, and MEME. Bitcoin remains the "flagship asset," but its dominance is increasingly diluted among different narratives and applications, with capital focusing more on "who is meeting real demand in the new environment" and "who can amplify on-chain capital efficiency."
● New role imagination for ETH: In this narrative reshuffling, ETH, which was often seen as a "high β appendage" to BTC, is gradually being reimagined by the market as an asset qualified to compete for a new anchor point. On one hand, it carries a large amount of on-chain dollars and contract settlements, functioning similarly to a "settlement layer"; on the other hand, incremental stories like RWA and L2 provide higher growth potential, prompting capital to reassess ETH's position as "moving from cyclical dependence to structural co-axis."
From BTC to ETH: Institutions Shifting Gears in the Value System
● Clear comparison of functional division: At this stage, BTC is more viewed by institutions as a "digital value storage and global settlement asset," emphasizing censorship resistance, scarcity, and "digital gold" attributes; while ETH is positioned as the infrastructure for "smart contracts and application layers," with its value not only coming from holding itself but also from supporting the operation of the entire application ecosystem as "fuel" and "collateral assets." This functional difference lays the groundwork for the two to exhibit different structural trends under the same macro cycle.
● Bullish logic for ETH from institutions: Surrounding the judgment that "ETH will become the biggest beneficiary of this bull market," bullish proponents emphasize three dimensions: first, on-chain economic activity is highly concentrated in Ethereum and its L2 systems, with fee and settlement demand driving ETH's capitalization space; second, RWA, on-chain dollars, and high-quality asset issuance naturally prioritize safety and compliance on the main chain; third, ETH has formed a relatively unshakeable "networked moat" in terms of technical routes, community, and developer ecosystem.
● Skepticism from bearish or cautious parties: More conservative institutions worry that Ethereum faces long-term scaling competition, public chain diversification, and regulatory uncertainties, and as the "application layer," its valuation is more susceptible to the fluctuations of a single track. They believe that in contrast, BTC's "pure narrative" is simpler and more resistant to interference, making it suitable as a long-term allocation and risk hedging tool, while ETH is more inclined towards "opportunistic trading" rather than "permanent bottom positions."
● Contrast between traditional forces betting on BTC and new funds preferring ETH: On-chain and public data show that Bitcoin mining companies continue to increase their BTC holdings, with companies like Cango increasing their holdings to thousands of coins, reflecting that traditional computing power and mining capital remain firmly on the side of BTC. In contrast, newly entering institutional funds and crypto-native funds more frequently mention ETH and its ecological opportunities when discussing increased allocations, forming a structural confrontation of "old forces guarding BTC, new funds betting on ETH," adding more layers to this cross-asset rotation.
RWA Flooding into Ethereum: On-Chain US Treasuries Reshaping Valuation Boundaries
● Amplifying effect of on-chain dollars and US Treasuries: Yi Lihua proposed that "stablecoins and US Treasuries on-chain bring huge increments," essentially pointing to the fact that when dollar liquidity and high-credit assets enter the chain in token form, Ethereum, as the current primary asset issuance and settlement venue, will naturally amplify its economic radius. Whether it is on-chain dollars or tokenized assets representing US Treasuries and notes, they require reliable smart contracts and a secure settlement environment, and Ethereum is one of the default options.
● Path of RWA reconstructing the valuation framework: Without citing specific TVL data, the trend shows that RWA has expanded the "trustworthy asset types" in the Ethereum ecosystem from crypto-native assets to a broader range of physical and financial assets. This means that when assessing ETH, it is no longer just a simple look at "fee income" or "DeFi locked value," but rather considering whether the chain is accommodating an increasingly large proportion of global asset issuance and circulation, which will have a profound impact on the assumptions of "ultimate market value" and "discounted cash flow" in the valuation model.
● From fee assets to global settlement layer: The RWA narrative drives the market to switch from a short-term perspective of "Are gas fees high or low?" to a long-term expectation of "Is Ethereum becoming the global asset settlement layer?" If the circulation of on-chain dollars, US Treasuries, and notes gradually becomes normalized, ETH's role as collateral, pricing, and settlement medium will become more solidified, with its value no longer driven solely by cyclical trading activity but deeply tied to the structural on-chain process of global assets.
● Comparing short-term hotspots with long-term capital flows: In contrast, the phase of explosive growth in sectors like MEME reflects more of an emotion-driven and high-volatility game, with capital moving quickly and contributing limited value to the underlying asset valuation system. RWA represents a slower, heavier, and more long-term capital inflow path, often tied to compliance, institutionalization, and long-term yield demands. As the main bearer of this long-term narrative, ETH's depth of narrative is significantly higher than that of short-term themes, providing a more solid logical support for bulls.
Public Leverage Ledger: The Game Interval from 3000 to 4500
● Clear price range and risk band: According to public information, the current ETH price is fluctuating around the $3000 line, with Yi Lihua setting $1000 above as the leverage safety threshold, and planning to actively liquidate near $4500, constructing a clear risk/reward interval. This design means that even in the event of a deep pullback, the position still has survival space; and once the price rises to the upper edge of the interval, the priority is to lock in profits rather than chase prices without limits.
● The disciplinary meaning of liquidating at $4500: Choosing to actively liquidate around the $4500 range does not equate to a bearish outlook on ETH, but rather views this position as a watershed where the risk-reward ratio begins to deteriorate. In a disciplined trading system, when the price reaches the preset upper edge, executing a reduction or even liquidation is an action to convert "paper profits" into "realized gains," rather than casting a veto on the long-term fundamentals, reserving bullets for reallocation at a more favorable position.
● The amplifying effect of publicly disclosed safety thresholds on market sentiment: When prominent figures disclose their leverage safety thresholds and liquidation ranges to the market, they are essentially sending a clear signal to retail investors and other funds: these price bands will become high-density convergence zones for sentiment and chips. Many followers may leverage or passively stop-loss in similar ranges, causing what was originally a personal risk control design to evolve into a psychological anchor for the entire market, amplifying transactions and volatility in these ranges.
● Chain reaction triggered by the public disclosure of leverage information: Once a large number of bulls position around similar ranges, the opposing side will be more motivated to create volatility at key price points, testing the endurance of these leverages. During upward movements, the public "bull ledger" will resonate, driving prices to quickly impact the upper edge; however, during downward movements or severe fluctuations, concentrated leverage zones can easily evolve into liquidation triggers and chain liquidations. For deeply involved participants, this public information may be incorporated into their strategies to design more refined entry and exit points and liquidity management.
Misalignment of Sentiment and Chips: The ETH Main Battlefield Under the MEME Frenzy
● The extreme portrayal of quick money scenarios: Represented by PENGUIN and other MEME tokens, the thematic assets recorded 20% to 25% increases shortly after launching on Binance Alpha, with scenes of "price surge at opening, completing a round of market movement in just a few candlesticks," reinforcing MEME's label as a quick money battlefield. For a large number of funds chasing short-term gains, these assets possess extremely high gaming efficiency, but also come with severe pullbacks and high-frequency turnover.
● A stable contrast with the ETH mainline: In contrast, mainline assets like ETH exhibited a significantly more stable and orderly trend during the same period, with prices oscillating around the several thousand dollar range, lacking the daily fluctuations of several percentage points. This apparent "boredom" actually signifies a thicker chip foundation and a more complex level of institutional participation, with capital engaging in more structural layouts rather than pure emotional surfing.
● The subtle relationship between MEME trends and ETH bulls: The frenzy of short-term capital in small coins like MEME can be seen as a "warming up" and leverage release for the main track's sentiment, with some profit-taking funds potentially flowing back into core assets like ETH for long-term allocation; on the other hand, during hot market conditions, it may also divert some incremental funds that could have entered the ETH ecosystem, marginally reducing the immediate buying pressure on mainline assets and making ETH's upward momentum appear more dulled.
● The amplifying effect of coexisting high-volatility small coins and publicly large positions: When the market is filled with the rapid rises and falls of high-volatility, small-cap MEME tokens, while there are also clear price bands from publicly disclosed large leverage positions like Yi Lihua's, once a sentiment reversal or external shock occurs, the liquidation chain may amplify each other between small coins and mainstream assets. A crash in small coins triggers margin gaps, forcing investors to passively sell ETH and other mainstream assets to cover or stop-loss, thus subjecting the originally envisioned "safe zone" to more severe volatility tests.
Standing on the Eve of Interest Rate Cuts: The Dual Bottom Line of ETH Bulls and Risks
Returning to the main thread of the text, the current market is at the intersection of the weakening traditional four-year halving cycle and the rising expectations of interest rate cuts and RWA narratives, with the old Bitcoin unipolar narrative giving way to a competitive landscape of multiple assets and parallel tracks. In this new macro and structural combination, ETH, with its core position in asset issuance, smart contracts, and settlement layers, is gradually being viewed by mainstream capital as a key beneficiary candidate for this cycle, and is also one of the most hotly debated assets surrounding the "main battlefield of the new interest rate cut cycle."
Yi Lihua's publicly disclosed ETH long strategy provides a clear example of layered risk control through building positions around $3000, a $1000 safety threshold, and a $4500 liquidation point: betting on ETH's medium to long-term yield rights in the new narrative direction, while tactically using strict price ranges and execution discipline to hedge against the uncertainties of macro paths, market sentiment, and leverage chain reactions. This approach of "dividing direction and position" has become an important reference for understanding large long positions in the current environment.
Looking ahead, if the process of interest rate cuts and RWA on-chain progresses smoothly, and Ethereum continues to solidify its advantages in asset issuance and settlement layers, ETH's valuation is expected to gain structural uplift in the re-evaluation by institutions and long-term funds; conversely, if the macro environment changes dramatically, regulatory tightening occurs, or the technical route faces disruption, the currently positioned leveraged longs may encounter deep pullbacks and concentrated liquidations amid severe volatility. In this context, what truly needs to be remembered at all times is the essential difference between "correct direction" and "correct position": even if one acknowledges ETH's medium to long-term logic in this cycle, it does not mean that any buying point, any leverage multiple, and any holding method will be treated gently by the market.
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