In the Eastern Eight Time Zone this week, Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua responded to his ETH long and leverage strategy in several media outlets, bringing the doubts that had been circulating in the over-the-counter market to the forefront. On one hand, Bitcoin has already refreshed its historical high, and ETF funds continue to flow in; on the other hand, mainstream altcoins and ETH are sluggish, with low trading volumes, presenting a typical "index bull, feeling bear" dislocation in the crypto market. As the traditional narrative of "Bitcoin's four-year halving must bring a major bull market" wavers, a sharper question stands before ETH investors: Is this really the best bottom-fishing window for Ethereum amidst the debate over the failure of the four-year cycle, or is it just another high-level trap to lure in buyers?
New Bitcoin Highs Fail to Drive the Market: Illusion of a Bull Market or Structural Divergence
● New highs in indices but a cold feeling: Bitcoin's price has strongly broken through historical highs with the support of spot ETFs, which should theoretically drive mainstream altcoins and ETH to rally together. However, the reality is that ETH is relatively stagnant, and most mainstream altcoins are struggling to recover their previous highs, with overall market capitalization and trading activity far from returning to the previous frenzy stage. This dislocation of "extremely bright index performance, but generally average holding experience" leaves many participants feeling fatigue rather than prosperity.
● Direct signal of selling pressure in the U.S.: In stark contrast to the new price highs, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for nine consecutive days. As one of the most important spot entry points for U.S. traders, a long-term negative premium on Coinbase indicates that the dollar market is more about selling pressure at highs rather than buying on price increases, with funds in the U.S. showing a pattern of "selling as prices rise." This data transforms the question of "whether the Bitcoin bull market is built on a healthy spot buying foundation" into a quantifiable ongoing signal.
● Structural bull market sparks debate over authenticity: When BTC refreshes its highs in a "running alone" manner, while ETH and the altcoin sector lag behind, mainstream traders naturally begin to doubt: Is this round of increases a locally structured bull market driven by ETF narratives, or a truly cyclical market that can be fully opened for positions? Against the backdrop of Coinbase's continuous negative premium and on-chain activity not fully cooperating, the confusion of "where is the bull" is amplified, leading to a more conservative approach to bottom-fishing and increasing positions.
Four-Year Cycle Fizzles: New Pricing Logic Under Interest Rate Hikes and Cuts
● The old era of halving myths: In past market cycles, "Bitcoin's halving every four years brings a bull market" has been almost regarded as a natural law in the crypto world: changes in computing power and output structure drive a comprehensive expansion of coin prices and the entire crypto market through supply contraction and expectation reinforcement. The rotation of altcoins and ETH was also implicitly linked to this timeframe, evolving into a relatively stable narrative loop of "halving—surge—clearing—halving."
● New pricing framework dominated by interest rates: The macro environment has fundamentally changed; after the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, global risk assets are being repriced according to interest rates, with high risk-free returns suppressing the willingness of funds to chase high-volatility assets. On one hand, the market bets that a potential rate-cutting cycle in the future will reignite risk appetite; on the other hand, it is constrained by sticky inflation and policy uncertainty, making it difficult to fully enter the market in advance. In this environment, the valuation of crypto assets is no longer solely centered around halving but is incorporated into a larger framework of "interest rates—liquidity—risk premium."
● New narratives replace old paradigms: As "halving = bull market" appears ineffective this time, a new narrative centered around the interest rate cycle begins to replace the old paradigm: the market is more concerned with when the Fed will truly shift from tightening to easing, when liquidity will massively flow back into the asset market, and whether crypto can continue to win allocation weight in the next round of global risk appetite recovery. The four-year cycle retreats to a secondary background amidst controversy, while the interest rate cycle rises as the main line explaining crypto volatility, forcing the ETH bottom-fishing logic to be embedded in this new temporal coordinate.
Yi Lihua's Heavy Bet: Why He Claims "Above $1,000 is Absolutely Safe"
● Key statement in public opinion: In the current media focus, Yi Lihua made a highly controversial statement—he believes that "this is currently the best bottom-fishing stage for the crypto market, especially for ETH", and further emphasized: based on personal position allocation, ETH in the $1,000 and above range is "absolutely safe." This judgment did not come with specific position sizes or leverage parameters, but it is enough to constitute a public emotional signal, stimulating intense discussions in the market around ETH's safety boundaries.
● Optimism against the trend in time dimension: At a stage where BTC leads while market funds are generally hesitant, being bullish on ETH is essentially a deliberate extension of the observation period to reassess the risk-reward ratio. Unlike short-term traders who focus on daily fluctuations, this logic leans more towards: in a medium to long-term cycle centered around interest rate inflection points and macro easing, the current price range of ETH is already far from the extreme bottom liquidity crisis and has not yet fully reflected the potential premiums of application and technology layers, thus forming an asymmetric pattern of "controllable downside limits and difficult-to-quantify upside space."
● Boundaries of risk tolerance range: It is important to emphasize that the public information does not disclose Yi Lihua's specific leverage multiples and total position sizes, and we do not speculate on these key parameters. Under the premise of limited information transparency, what can be relatively certain to the outside world is that he is willing to bear systemic volatility risk in the range significantly above $1,000 for ETH and publicly defines this range as "absolutely safe." This is more like a public declaration of a high-risk tolerance preference rather than a universal safety line applicable to all investors.
From Gold to Ethereum: Parabolic Market Trends Across Assets
● Parabolic formula after precious metals: Fundstrat's Tom Lee once proposed a vivid judgment—"Cryptocurrency parabolic rises usually occur after significant increases in precious metals." The logic is that when the macro environment drives a rise in risk-averse sentiment, and funds first flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold, some liquidity will begin to seek higher elastic value storage vehicles under the premise of confirming that "fiat currency purchasing power continues to be eroded," and crypto assets happen to take on this role, leading to a "gold first surge, crypto follows" cross-asset linkage.
● The possibility and gap for ETH to take the baton: If we place the current precious metals and overall risk asset sentiment on the same timeline, we can see that traditional safe-haven assets and some stock indices have already rehearsed future easing to varying degrees, while BTC's new high seems to reflect a leveraged mapping of this expectation. In this chain, viewing ETH as the "next baton" is not without basis: it carries the long-term narrative of smart contract platforms and on-chain financial infrastructure, yet is clearly lagging behind BTC and some weighted assets. However, there remains significant uncertainty in this logic—whether ETH can be priced as a "high-elasticity value storage" cannot be resolved by a mere cross-asset analogy.
● Boundaries of emotional narratives and price projections: Importantly, the cross-asset parabolic narrative itself does not equate to an executable price prediction model. This article deliberately avoids providing any projections regarding ETH's future specific price targets and timelines when referencing related viewpoints, nor does it attempt to quantify the "gold—BTC—ETH" linkage as a deterministic arbitrage path. Emotional narratives can help understand how funds migrate between different assets, but they cannot replace a calm assessment of risk, liquidity, and one's own tolerance.
Technological Acceleration and Regulatory Easing: Paving the Way for the Next Market Cycle Rather Than Immediate Explosion
● Infrastructure acceleration and liquidity effects: On the technical level, events like Ave.ai completing the reconstruction of its trading system to achieve millisecond-level trading represent a significant acceleration of underlying infrastructure. Millisecond-level matching and response capabilities can better accommodate order flow during extreme volatility, reducing slippage and stalling, and enhancing the feasibility of market-making and quantitative strategies. In the long run, such technological leaps provide the necessary conditions for the market to support higher frequency and larger-scale trading, indirectly elevating the financial centrality of mainstream assets like ETH in a high-efficiency trading ecosystem.
● Imagination space for marginal regulatory improvement: On the policy front, former U.S. President Trump publicly expressed support for crypto-friendly legislation, adding a glimmer of marginal easing expectations to an already highly uncertain regulatory outlook. Although the specific terms and implementation paths of potential bills are completely unknown, and this article does not predict any potential policy details, this shift in attitude from political leaders will be interpreted by the market as "future regulation may become clearer and relatively predictable," opening a gap for institutional funds to reassess the legitimacy of crypto allocations.
● Quantum risk and long-term sense of security: Meanwhile, the on-chain security narrative is also upgrading. On-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that while the Bitcoin community has been slow to respond to quantum risks, this response process is now rapidly accelerating. This means that core development and research resources are gradually shifting towards addressing potential quantum computing threats. For mainstream crypto assets, including ETH, the advancement and increased investment in security layer research help enhance the credibility of the entire asset class as a "long-term holding target," providing a sense of security endorsement for funds willing to bet on the next macro cycle.
False Bull or Golden Pit: The Winning Hand and Preconditions for ETH Bulls
The current contradictions are extremely clear: on one hand, the potential interest rate inflection point expectations on the macro level, the continuous upgrades in infrastructure and security on the technical level, and the possibility of marginal policy easing together construct a relatively complete long-term bullish logic for ETH; on the other hand, the actual price performance and trading sentiment remain cautious—BTC is making new highs alone, while ETH and altcoins are weak in following, and the continuous selling pressure in the U.S. market raises persistent doubts about "whether this round is really a bull market." The macro and technical aspects draw an upward slope in the distance, while the market and sentiment present a zigzag in front.
If we are to set clear preconditions for ETH's bottom-fishing logic, at least a few clues need to gradually materialize: first, the interest rate cycle truly shifts from rate hikes to stabilization or even cuts, and the global liquidity environment no longer continuously pressures high-volatility assets; second, the regulatory path shows a more friendly or predictable direction in key judicial jurisdictions, allowing institutions and compliant funds to have space to increase allocation weight; third, ETH's own progress in technical expansion, application ecology, and security can be translated by the market into actual demand and fee capture, rather than remaining at the conceptual level. Only under these gradually met conditions can Yi Lihua's emphasized "best bottom-fishing stage" come closer to a statistically significant high-odds opportunity, rather than a personal gamble for a few high-risk preference investors.
Overall, the current ETH resembles a high-risk, high-reward "golden pit" gambling ground: the price has not yet fully priced in the long-term optimistic narrative, while the short-term pullbacks and volatility risks are very real. For participants who can traverse cycles, bear floating losses, and maintain coherent judgments on the aforementioned preconditions, this may be a deep pit where they can gradually lay out their positions; but for those who still rely solely on the four-year halving myth as their only guide, expecting a "everyone has chips, everyone can make money" nationwide festive bull market, the current market feels more like a rehearsal without a script rather than the ultimate performance that has already entered its climax.
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