In 2026, the Bitcoin market is at a historic turning point. At the macro narrative level, the intense conflicts in global geopolitics have exacerbated the collapse of the current financial system. The oil dollar hegemony established by the United States through the Bretton Woods system is facing fierce challenges from the RMB system built by China through its manufacturing and high-tech industry advantages. This transformation towards a multipolar financial order provides a historic opportunity for blockchain technology. On the surface, there are significant discrepancies in the market regarding price trajectories, the actual contributions of DAT, and the rhythm of volatility convergence. However, behind these short-term path disputes lies a profound and unified consensus in the market regarding Bitcoin's long-term positioning: the pricing mechanism of Bitcoin has completely decoupled from the halving cycle narrative, and its pricing power is irreversibly shifting from crypto-native capital to being dominated by traditional capital market asset allocation logic. The core value anchoring has shifted from the grand narrative of digital gold to a core strategic allocation asset within national and institutional balance sheets, with its long-term volatility converging towards that of commodities becoming an inevitable trend.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market in the first half of the year will present a wide-ranging fluctuation pattern amid the interplay of ETF/DAT capital inflows and macro volatility; as macro policies such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are implemented in the second half of the year, and the scale of national and institutional holdings continues to expand, the consensus on the transfer of pricing power will become more pronounced, driving the amplitude of price fluctuations to narrow. Geopolitical hedging and the demand for multipolar financial infrastructure will accelerate national and institutional strategic allocations to Bitcoin, and the narrative of neutral value reserves will completely dominate the market.

1. Introduction: The Market Nurtures a New Pattern Amid Discrepancies

For a long time, the Bitcoin market has followed a pattern of extreme volatility driven by retail sentiment, leverage cycles, and the four-year halving supply-side narrative. However, since the approval of the spot ETF in January 2024 and the structural adjustments in the market in 2025, a new pattern is quietly establishing itself.

More than 30 top Wall Street and crypto-native institutions have consistently pointed out in their annual outlooks released from December 2025 to January 2026 that the cryptocurrency industry is transitioning from "the turbulence of adolescence" to "the prudence of adulthood," entering what is referred to as the "industrialization phase." Grayscale's report released on December 15, 2025, named it the "Dawn of the Institutional Era," and the core of this transformation is the transfer of Bitcoin's pricing power: the official beginning of Bitcoin filling the "neutral value reserve" vacuum in a multipolar geopolitical landscape.

On a deeper level, the rapid changes in the current geopolitical landscape are accelerating this process. Countries like Russia and Iran are effectively circumventing U.S. economic sanctions through Bitcoin and stablecoin settlements, while third-world countries hope to establish a complete financial infrastructure independent of the traditional Western financial system using blockchain technology. Meanwhile, U.S. institutional investors are using Bitcoin to hedge against dollar inflation risks. This demand for the reconstruction of a global multipolar financial order provides Bitcoin with unprecedented strategic allocation value.

On-chain data confirms the profundity of this shift: as of January 13, 2026, the circulating supply of Bitcoin reached 19,975,087 coins, with 95.12% already mined, and the annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.823%, for the first time historically lower than gold's 1.5%-2%. At the same time, institutional holdings are unprecedented—U.S. spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $56.4 billion, with assets under management reaching $116.86 billion, accounting for 6.48% of Bitcoin's total market value; approximately 160 publicly listed companies globally hold 1.105 million BTC (5.53% of total supply), with Strategy alone holding 687,400 coins. These "non-circulating inventories" collectively lock up about 1.7 million BTC, equivalent to 8.5% of the circulating supply, structurally reshaping the market's supply-demand dynamics.

This chapter will focus on the apparent discrepancies generated by the market during the current transition period and penetrate these discrepancies to argue the underlying unified long-term logic driven by neutral value reserves.

2. Three Dimensions of Market Discrepancy: Data-Driven Path Games

Although the long-term direction is converging, there are significant discrepancies in the market regarding how to reach the other side in 2026, mainly reflected in the following three dimensions:

2.1 Price Trajectory Dispute: Unilateral Breakthrough vs. Wide Fluctuation

The optimistic view believes that Bitcoin will reach a new historical high in 2026, with a target range of $120,000 to $225,000. The core support for this expectation comes from the cumulative effect of three funding engines.

First is the continuous net inflow of ETFs. In its 2026 outlook, Bitwise boldly asserts, "ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply," meaning that ETF buying will completely absorb the supply contraction post-halving and seize chips from the existing market. As of January 2026, U.S. spot ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of 600,590 BTC; according to Bitwise's logic, the annual new supply post-halving in 2026 is about 164,250 coins, and ETFs only need to maintain the current monthly inflow pace of 20,000 to 30,000 coins to achieve excess coverage.

Second is the continuous purchasing behavior of DAT companies. Approximately 160 publicly listed companies globally have included Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with Strategy continuously expanding its holdings to 687,400 coins, and companies like iPower even purchasing coins through special financing. The continued inclusion of related companies in the MSCI index further validates the mainstreaming of this strategy.

Third is the macro benefits brought by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will restart the interest rate cut cycle in the second half of 2026, and the improvement in global liquidity will create a favorable environment for risk assets. These three funding supports form a dual funding support of institutional allocation and macro liquidity sufficient to drive prices beyond the historical highs of 2025.

The cautious view holds a completely different stance. Galaxy Digital stated in its report on December 18, 2025, that 2026 is "too chaotic to predict," but based on options market pricing, it provided an equal probability range of $70,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year. This judgment is based on three major resistance factors.

First is the high correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets. Social media analysis shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has exceeded 0.7, making it more susceptible to the transmission effects of macro fluctuations in the U.S. stock market. In 2026, a year of global macro policy turning points, uncertainties such as the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and recurring inflation in Europe will directly impact Bitcoin prices.

Second is the technical resistance revealed by on-chain data. Analysis of UTXO age shows that a large number of holding costs are concentrated in the $92,100 to $117,400 range, with these chips bought near the 2025 peak forming a strong supply pressure above. The current price has reached the lower edge of this cost cluster, and any upward movement will require time and capital to digest the selling pressure from this trapped position. The cost basis for short-term holders is about $95,000, which will be a key psychological and technical resistance level.

Third is the uncertainty of ETF capital flows. Although the cumulative inflow scale is considerable, ETF funds may experience phase net outflows. From October to December 2025, Bitcoin's price corrected 40% from its peak, while the realized market cap remained stable at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that institutional holders did not panic sell, but it also means that new capital inflows are slowing. If a deteriorating macro environment leads to continued net outflows from ETFs, it will directly shake the narrative foundation of institutional demand.

The core judgment of the cautious camp is that the outcome of the tug-of-war between the sustainability of institutional funds and macro uncertainties will determine whether 2026 sees a unilateral breakthrough or wide fluctuations.

2.2 DAT Narrative Dispute: Sustained Engine vs. Fragile Flywheel

The debate surrounding the DAT model also presents starkly opposing views.

Supporters view DAT as a sustained funding engine, believing it to be another institutionalized source of demand following ETFs. As of January 2026, approximately 160 publicly listed companies globally hold Bitcoin, with the top 100 collectively holding 1.105 million BTC, accounting for 5.53% of total supply. This scale has surpassed many single countries' sovereign reserve concepts, becoming a structural demand that cannot be ignored.

Companies like iPower are purchasing coins through special financing, and Strategy is continuously expanding its holdings, indicating that DAT is not merely a passive allocation of buying and holding but an active asset management strategy. The continued inclusion of companies like Strategy in the MSCI index further validates market recognition of this model. Supporters believe that as more companies follow suit, DAT will create fundamental demand independent of price, providing long-term support for Bitcoin.

Skeptics, on the other hand, characterize DAT as a passive model reliant on coin prices, emphasizing its inherent fragility. Grayscale's report on December 15, 2025, directly disparaged DAT as a "red herring," believing its media volume exceeds its actual pricing impact and will not become a major market factor in 2026. Galaxy Digital even warned on December 4, 2025, predicting that at least five DAT companies will go bankrupt or be acquired in 2026 due to operational issues.

The core argument of skeptics lies in the fact that the DAT model's "buy coins-financing" flywheel is highly dependent on rising coin prices. Standard Chartered pointed out in a report that the stock prices of DAT companies show a high leveraged correlation with Bitcoin prices; once the coin price deeply corrects, it may trigger a negative spiral of "falling stock prices → financing difficulties → forced coin sales → further price declines." Social media analysis has also predicted that "the DAT structure relies on leverage and is expected to be forced to liquidate reserves during a downturn, with stock prices going to zero within 12 months."

On-chain data shows that the stock prices of small DAT companies have long been below their Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV1), indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of their business models. If Bitcoin prices do not break through as expected in 2026, these companies may face liquidity crises.

The focal point of the discrepancy is: does the DAT model create fundamental demand independent of price, or is it merely a passive follower amplifying market volatility?

2.3 Volatility Convergence Dispute: Realization in 2026 vs. Delay to 2027

There are also discrepancies in the market regarding the timeline for Bitcoin's volatility to converge with traditional assets.

The optimistic expectation is that convergence will be achieved within 2026. Bitwise boldly asserts in its forecast: "Bitcoin's volatility will fall below that of Nvidia for the first time," a prediction that carries symbolic significance—Nvidia, as a representative of tech stocks, has a volatility far higher than traditional commodities. If Bitcoin's volatility falls below it, it indicates a fundamental change in Bitcoin's asset attributes.

The basis for this expectation is the continuous increase in the proportion of institutional holdings. ETFs and DAT, as non-circulating inventories, collectively lock up about 1.7 million BTC, accounting for 8.5% of the circulating supply, significantly reducing the speculative circulating supply in the market. The buying and holding behavior of institutional investors stands in stark contrast to the high-frequency trading of retail investors, effectively smoothing out short-term speculative fluctuations.

Another prediction from Bitwise adds: "The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease," which means Bitcoin will gradually detach from its positioning as a "risk asset Beta" and evolve into an independent asset class, thereby reducing the transmission effects of macro volatility.

The cautious view, however, believes that convergence will be delayed until 2027. VanEck points out in its long-term capital market assumptions that Bitcoin's annualized volatility is expected to remain in the 40%-70% range, comparable to frontier market stocks and far higher than gold's 15%-20%. This judgment is based on three reasons.

First, the reshaping of asset attributes is not an overnight process. Despite unprecedented institutional holdings, retail and leveraged traders still occupy a considerable proportion, and a complete transformation of market structure requires more time.

Second, market data from early 2026 shows that implied volatility has gently rebounded from historical lows, indicating that the market's pricing of short-term volatility has not disappeared. Galaxy Digital notes that Bitcoin is shifting towards a macro asset skew, with put option prices exceeding call option prices, reflecting market concerns about downside risks.

Third, macro data shocks remain significant. In a year of global macro policy turning points, changes in liquidity expectations may still cause phase shocks to Bitcoin. Some KOLs express: "We are optimistic for January-February, but hold a pessimistic view on the macro environment for 2026, as liquidity is insufficient to support momentum." If geopolitical conflicts escalate and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts fall short of expectations, volatility may temporarily rise.

The core of the disagreement lies in whether the institutionalization process can complete the leap from quantitative change to qualitative change within 2026, leading to a substantial convergence of volatility, or whether it will need to extend into 2027.

3. Unified Consensus Amid Discrepancies: An Irreversible Trend of Institutionalization

Despite differing opinions on the above paths, market participants have formed a strong consensus on the following three fundamental issues, which constitute the cornerstone of Bitcoin's new value narrative.

3.1 Consensus One: The Transfer of Pricing Power is Complete, Halving Cycle Narrative Marginalized

This is the most fundamental consensus above all discrepancies. Multiple institutions, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Fidelity, explicitly declared in their December 2025 reports: the "four-year halving cycle" narrative of Bitcoin has completely failed.

21Shares bluntly stated that "the four-year cycle has broken," Bitwise predicts that "Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and set new highs," Fidelity discussed in its live broadcast that "the traditional four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies may have ended," and Grayscale even titled its report "the end of the so-called 'four-year cycle.'"

Data supports this assertion. After the fourth halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's price increase was far less than in the first three cycles of 2012, 2016, and 2020, indicating that the halving's uplifting effect on price has sharply diminished. More critically, the driving force has completely shifted from the "supply side (halving)" to the "demand side (value reserve)."

Fidelity stated that the market has entered a "new paradigm." The daily trading volume of ETFs has increasingly become a significant portion of Bitcoin's total trading volume, establishing itself as a new liquidity center and price discovery venue. As of January 2026, ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of 600,590 BTC, equivalent to 100% of the cumulative new supply (about 600,000 coins) from the April 2024 halving to January 2026, fully absorbing the supply contraction.

The popularization of DAT strategies and discussions on sovereign reserves further systematically locks in supply. Asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity conduct quarterly asset allocations for clients, and their capital flows have become a more sustained pricing factor than halving. Institutions and traditional financial buyers are countering cycle-based sellers, and Bitcoin's relative scarcity compared to gold and real estate is being underestimated.

The dominance of pricing has shifted from crypto-native funds focused on "block reward halving" to traditional asset management institutions focused on "Sharpe ratios, asset correlations, and allocation ratios." This is an irreversible transfer of power.

3.2 Consensus Two: Value Anchoring Reshaped, Becoming Core Allocation in Institutional Balance Sheets

Regardless of short-term price views, the market recognizes that Bitcoin's long-term value foundation has migrated. It no longer solely relies on the relatively abstract narrative of digital gold but is concretely anchored on three solid pillars, gaining additional strategic value in the context of the current geopolitical landscape reconstruction.

1. Moderate and Analyzable Correlation with Traditional Assets.

Although Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 currently exceeds 0.7 and is viewed by some as a risk, from an institutional perspective, this correlation is modelable and predictable. Bitwise predicts that "the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks will decrease," meaning that as the proportion of institutional allocation increases, Bitcoin will gradually detach from being a pure risk asset Beta and evolve into an independent asset class. This moderate correlation allows it to be included in traditional investment portfolio mean-variance optimization models, rather than being a completely isolated speculative product.

2. Absolute and Verifiable Scarcity.

As of January 13, 2026, 95.12% of Bitcoin has been mined, and the annualized inflation rate has dropped to 0.823%, historically the first time lower than gold's 1.5%-2%. The hard cap supply limit of 21 million coins is guaranteed by consensus protocols and cannot be altered by any central authority. This "algorithmic scarcity" differs from gold's "physical scarcity" and is more suitable for value storage in the digital age.

3. Increasingly Improved Compliance Allocation Channels.

The U.S. GENIUS Act was signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring 100% reserves and monthly disclosures, with regulatory clarity benefiting the entire industry. The CLARITY Act was passed by the House on July 17, 2025, separating the regulatory powers of the CFTC and SEC and providing a safe harbor for DeFi, significantly reducing legal uncertainties for institutional participation. The EU's MiCA regulation, effective December 30, 2024, classifies Bitcoin as other crypto assets, requiring service providers to operate with licenses and comply with information disclosure and anti-manipulation rules, with full implementation extending throughout 2026. These legislative developments mark a shift from fragmented to systematic crypto regulation, laying a legal foundation for large-scale institutional capital entry and healthy industry development.

4. Strategic Value of Geopolitical Hedging and Financial Order Reconstruction.

In the context of the global geopolitical landscape's trend towards multipolarity, Bitcoin demonstrates unique strategic value. Countries like Russia and Iran conduct cross-border settlements using Bitcoin and stablecoins, effectively circumventing the restrictions of traditional financial controls; third-world countries leverage blockchain technology to build independent financial infrastructures, reducing reliance on the Western-dominated financial system; while U.S. institutional investors use Bitcoin to hedge against the depreciation of dollar credit and inflation pressures. This cross-national, cross-camp allocation demand provides Bitcoin with geopolitical Alpha opportunities that traditional assets do not possess.

The combination of these four pillars enables Bitcoin to serve as a non-sovereign, anti-inflation neutral value reserve asset, officially entering the asset allocation models of pension funds, insurance funds, and family offices. The opening of digital asset allocation in the U.S. 401(k) pension plan will bring significant potential buying power based on a 1% to 5% allocation weight. Over 41% of hedge funds plan to allocate to cryptocurrencies, and sovereign wealth funds like Norway's pension fund are beginning pilot reserves, while traditional wealth management platforms like Morgan Stanley plan to offer Bitcoin ETF allocation options to clients in 2026.

Grayscale also stated in its report: "2026 will accelerate structural changes… broadening adoption (especially between consulting wealth and institutional investors)." This marks a qualitative change in Bitcoin's value anchoring from a speculative asset to a strategic allocation asset.

3.3 Consensus Three: The Convergence of Volatility Towards Commodities is Inevitable in the Long Term

Although there is debate over whether the goal of achieving volatility lower than Nvidia will be reached in 2026, both sides agree on the core logical chain of "increased institutionalization → decreased volatility" and the inevitable trend of volatility converging towards mature commodities like gold in the long term.

From the supply side, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has fallen below that of gold for the first time, establishing its foundation as an ultra-scarce commodity from the supply side. Under the constraint of the 21 million coin supply cap, future inflation rates will continue to decline, with each halving further tightening supply.

From the demand side, the democratization of ETF allocations and the long-term locking of DAT together form a dual stabilizer that reduces speculative selling pressure in the market. On-chain data shows that ETFs and DAT collectively lock up about 1.7 million BTC, accounting for 8.5% of the circulating supply. The holders of these non-circulating inventories aim for long-term allocation, with turnover rates far lower than those of retail and leveraged traders.

Glassnode data indicates that as profit-taking pressure eases and ETF demand re-emerges, the market is transitioning from "defensive deleveraging" to "selective risk-taking," with the structure becoming healthier. The realized market cap has stabilized at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that the average cost basis of holders is solid and not easily shaken by short-term fluctuations.

Galaxy Digital points out that Bitcoin is experiencing a "structural long-term decrease in volatility," shifting towards a "macro asset skew." This means that Bitcoin's volatility pattern is transitioning from "endogenous speculative volatility" driven by leverage and liquidations to "exogenous macro volatility" driven by Federal Reserve policies and risk preferences, the latter of which has volatility characteristics more akin to traditional commodities.

Institutional investors seek assets with controllable volatility that can be included in traditional investment portfolios, and their continued entry is itself the greatest driving force behind the decline in volatility. When long-term funds like pension and insurance funds become the main marginal buyers, Bitcoin's price will no longer be dominated by the profit-seeking behavior of leveraged traders but will be driven by the rebalancing of long-term asset allocations, naturally leading to a convergence of volatility towards traditional assets.

Therefore, the downward shift of the volatility center and convergence towards mature commodities like gold is widely recognized as an inevitable long-term trend, with the only disagreement being whether this process will be completed in 2026 or extend into 2027.

4. 2026 Trend Outlook: From Discrepancy Game to Deepening Consensus

Based on the analysis of the aforementioned discrepancies and consensus, combined with on-chain data, institutional reports, and social media narratives, I make the following independent judgment on the trajectory of the Bitcoin market in 2026:

4.1 H1 2026: Discrepancies Dominate, Wide Fluctuations

The market will be in a "transition period" between the old and new paradigms. On one hand, ETF funds may see renewed net inflows as macro sentiment improves. As of January 2026, the total assets under management for ETFs reached $116.86 billion, and if the growth trajectory expected by institutions holds, net inflows for the entire year of 2026 could reach several billion dollars. DAT companies may also make new allocations, and the continued purchasing by leading firms like Strategy will provide price support.

On the other hand, the high correlation with traditional stock markets and the historical trapped positions above will severely limit the upward space and speed. On-chain data shows that the UTXO cost basis is densely distributed in the range of $92,100 to $117,400, with the cost basis for short-term holders around $95,000. These ranges will form strong technical resistance levels, and when the price breaks through $100,000, the market will experience a wave of FOMO.

At the macro level, risks of escalating geopolitical conflicts in the first half of 2026, the unclear pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and fluctuating inflation data in Europe will directly impact Bitcoin prices.

Considering all factors, prices are more likely to oscillate between "institutional funds providing a floor" and "macro volatility and technical resistance exerting pressure," presenting a wide fluctuation pattern. $100,000 will be a key psychological and technical resistance level. During this phase, as investors, we should focus on ETF fund flows, signals from Federal Reserve policies, and changes in on-chain and futures market chip distribution, rather than hoping for a unilateral breakout.

4.2 H2 2026: Consensus Emerges, Volatility Converges

As the second half of the year progresses, the consensus on the transfer of pricing power will deepen, driving the market towards a more stable state.

First, the Federal Reserve's entry into a rate-cutting cycle will become clearer, and the improvement in the global liquidity environment will create macro benefits for risk assets and Bitcoin.

Second, after the oscillation and digestion in the first half of the year, the resistance from the upper chip positions is expected to be partially resolved. Holders of trapped positions will either exit with losses during repeated oscillations or convert to long-term holding, alleviating supply pressure and creating conditions for price breakthroughs.

More importantly, institutional holdings will continue to expand. If Bitwise's prediction that "ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new supply" materializes, the ETF assets under management are expected to approach or exceed $150 billion by the end of the year. If DAT companies do not face catastrophic failures due to price corrections after the risk testing in the first half of the year, their holdings may further increase. The continuous rise in the proportion of institutional holdings will structurally reduce the speculative circulating supply in the market.

At that time, the market consensus that the transfer of pricing power has been substantially completed will be more deeply ingrained. Bitcoin's price movement may become relatively boring, as predicted by Galaxy Digital—no longer experiencing monthly surges or drops of 30%-50%, but instead gently fluctuating amid institutional rebalancing. Its narrative as a core asset on institutional balance sheets and a neutral value reserve will fully become mainstream in the market, with prices expected to break previous highs on a more solid foundation.

If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly after the Senate vote in 2026, the further enhancement of regulatory clarity will trigger a new wave of institutional FOMO, becoming a key catalyst for the second half of the year. Bitwise explicitly states that "the passage of the CLARITY Act will drive Ethereum and Solana to new highs," and its uplifting effect on Bitcoin will be even more significant.

In summary, Bitcoin is expected to enter a phase of volatility convergence and steady upward movement in the second half of the year, with prices potentially stabilizing in the $100,000-$150,000 range by year-end, laying the groundwork for further breakthroughs in 2027.

4.3 Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Repeated Macro Inflation

If global inflation rebounds unexpectedly (such as from energy price shocks or renewed supply chain disruptions), forcing the Federal Reserve to revert to a hawkish stance and delay or pause interest rate cuts, it will simultaneously undermine risk appetite and Bitcoin's macro hedging narrative. The risk of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan also needs to be noted; historically, unwinding yen carry trades has led to Bitcoin dropping over 20% during periods of thin liquidity. If Japan's interest rate hikes exceed expectations in the first half of 2026, this scenario may repeat.

2. Risk of Tightening Compliance Policies

Although the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act represent improvements in the regulatory framework, compliance requirements targeting the crypto industry, such as anti-money laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) regulations, may suddenly tighten. The GENIUS Act has already required stablecoin issuers to comply with the BSA, including AML procedures, sanctions screening, and customer identity verification. If similar requirements extend to Bitcoin ETFs and DAT companies, it will increase institutional participation costs and weaken attractiveness.

3. Risk of Capital Flow Reversal

If ETF funds experience unexpected and sustained net outflows, it will directly shake the narrative foundation of institutional demand. The 40% price correction from October to December 2025 has already demonstrated the reality of this risk. If the macro environment deteriorates (such as the Federal Reserve reverting to a hawkish stance or increasing concerns about a global recession), pension and insurance funds may reduce their allocations to risk assets, with ETFs facing the brunt of redemption pressure. Due to the lack of retail investors to absorb the selling, concentrated sell-offs in ETFs could trigger steeper liquidity crises than in previous cycles.

4. Risk of DAT Model Failures

Galaxy Digital predicts that at least five DAT companies will go bankrupt or be acquired in 2026, with this risk being most pronounced during the price oscillation period in the first half of the year. If leading companies like Strategy are forced to sell Bitcoin in bulk due to stock price or operational issues (though currently this seems unlikely, smaller DAT companies face higher risks), it could trigger a chain reaction in the market.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin market in 2026 stands at the intersection of the "speculation-driven" and "institution-driven" eras. The apparent discrepancies in price, DAT, and volatility are essentially different judgments by the market regarding the pace of transformation rather than the direction of transformation.

The three unified consensus points—irreversible transfer of pricing power, value anchored in national and institutional allocations, and long-term convergence of volatility—have formed the cornerstone of the new paradigm. On-chain data confirms the profundity of this transformation: over 95% of the supply of BTC has been mined, the inflation rate of 0.823% is lower than that of gold, institutions have locked up 8.5% of the circulating supply, and the realized market cap has stabilized at a historical high of $1.125 trillion. These structural changes will not be reversed by short-term price fluctuations.

As investors, we need to transcend the obsession with mere price movements and instead focus on the milestones of the institutionalization process: the progress of the CLARITY Act, ETF fund flows, the resilience testing of the DAT model amid fluctuations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline. The wide fluctuations in the first half of 2026 are a necessary path for the transition of pricing logic, and the convergence of volatility in the second half will validate the final establishment of the neutral value reserve narrative.

In the dawn of the institutional era, Bitcoin's competitiveness will no longer depend on retail sentiment or miners' costs, but on its ability to prove itself as an irreplaceable strategic asset in the asset allocation models of national reserves, pension funds, insurance funds, and sovereign wealth funds.

This is a transfer of pricing power from "digital gold" to "neutral value reserve," marking Bitcoin's transition from adolescence to maturity.

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