This week, the cryptocurrency market has shown a clear split in terms of funding: on one hand, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a net outflow for several consecutive days, with approximately $146 million withdrawn from over-the-counter tools, indicating that some institutions are starting to adopt a more conservative approach; on the other hand, the Solana-based meme coin PENGUIN surged over 800% in a single day, compounded by large whales exiting with significant stop losses, pushing market sentiment to extremes. Meanwhile, mining companies have quietly increased their holdings amid volatility, Bitcoin positions continue to rise, and the narratives around DeFi fixed income and RWA are heating up, outlining a complex funding path that balances risk aversion and stability-seeking, as well as a reordering of on-chain and off-chain investments.

Continuous Net Outflow from ETFs and Cooling Institutional Risk Appetite

● Funding Trends: According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of approximately $104 million over the past 5 days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of about $41.73 million over the past 4 days, with funds continuously withdrawing from compliant off-chain products. This rhythm contrasts sharply with the previous period of continuous net inflows, reflecting that some institutions are choosing to reduce their positions during heightened volatility, showing a clear increase in sensitivity to short-term risks.

● Market Structure: From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have historically accumulated a net inflow of approximately $56.4 billion, corresponding to about 6.48% of BTC's market cap. The current outflow in the hundreds of millions still represents a localized adjustment within the existing stock. However, against the backdrop of ETFs as a key incremental entry point, this round of net outflows sends a clear signal—previously heightened risk appetite is beginning to cool, and price elasticity is being weakened.

● Volatility Linkage: Historical experience shows that periods of continuous net outflows often overlap with rising macro uncertainty or price consolidation phases, with funds leaning more towards observation and hedging. In the short term, ETF subscription and redemption data will continue to suppress the upward elasticity of Bitcoin and Ethereum; the mid-term trend will depend on when a new round of incremental funds returns to ETFs and whether institutions view the current adjustment as a secondary accumulation window.

On-Chain PENGUIN Surge and Extreme Speculative Sentiment

● Surge Characteristics: According to GMGN data, the market cap of the Solana ecosystem meme coin PENGUIN has surpassed approximately $60.5 million, with a 24-hour increase of over 800%, showcasing high-leverage short-term speculation in the secondary market. Such an extreme single-day increase rapidly draws funds and attention away from mainstream assets, becoming an amplifier of on-chain sentiment.

● Split Contrast: On one side, there is a continuous net outflow of off-chain ETF funds, while on the other, on-chain retail investors are increasing their bets on meme assets, creating a stark contrast. The former represents the risk exposure of compliant institutional funds contracting, while the latter reflects native on-chain funds collectively taking risks on high-beta varieties. Behind the split market is a fundamentally different attitude towards the same market from different groups and funding sources.

● Weak Pricing: Currently, the publicly available information does not disclose specific application scenarios and long-term value support for PENGUIN, with prices almost entirely driven by sentiment and short-term liquidity. In such a structure, any adverse movement in funds could trigger severe pullbacks, with high risks of a sell-off at elevated levels; participants are essentially gambling on timing rather than fundamentals.

Mining Companies Increasing Holdings and Whales' Stop Losses

● Mining Companies' Attitude: According to information from platform X, the mining company Bitdeer currently holds approximately 1504.4 BTC, with a net increase of 2.3 BTC this week. In a phase of intensified price volatility and sentiment divergence, choosing a strategy of "mining while hoarding" equates to converting mining output into long-term asset allocation, reflecting confidence in the medium to long-term value of Bitcoin.

● Whale Stop Losses: In contrast to the accumulation by mining companies, on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa tracked that an Ethereum whale, with an average entry cost of about $3873, chose to stop loss and exit around $2813, incurring a total loss of approximately $1.815 million. Such large passive recognition of losses reinforces the market's perception of short-term decline and volatility risks.

● Confidence and Tolerance: In the same market cycle, on one side, mining companies are slowly accumulating at low levels, while on the other, high-cost whales are cutting losses under pressure. The fundamental difference behind both is the perspective of time and risk tolerance. Mining companies measure allocation returns over multi-year cycles and can better withstand short-term floating losses; whereas efficiency-driven whales choose to preserve cash after prices breach psychological thresholds, abandoning further bets on rebounds.

DeFi Fixed Income and RWA Narrative's Steady Absorption

● Fixed Income Products: According to a single source, Buidlpad has launched a DeFi fixed deposit product with an annualized return of about 8%, setting a hard cap of approximately $20 million, attracting stable funds with relatively certain yields in a weak market environment. For users seeking a "cash flow anchor" amid high volatility, such products become a tool to hedge against equity fluctuations.

● Cautious Signals: Although high yields are attractive, the project has set clear upper limits on fund volumes, indicating that participants maintain a restrained attitude towards smart contract risks and overall market liquidity. This design of "intentionally slowing the pace of fund inflow" is itself a response to the current market uncertainties, avoiding rapid accumulation of systemic risks within a single protocol.

● Exchange Layout: According to OKX CEO Star, OKX plans to continue expanding the X Layer ecosystem and promote more RWA assets on-chain. As ETF funds experience net outflows, exchanges attempt to act as "absorbers": guiding some of the funds withdrawn from off-chain back to on-chain in the form of products backed by real-world assets, lowering the psychological threshold for institutions and compliant funds regarding the volatility of native crypto assets.

Funds Reordering Between On-Chain and Off-Chain

● Divergent Pattern: Continuous net outflows from off-chain ETFs, extreme surges in on-chain meme coins, and simultaneous heating of DeFi fixed income and RWA concepts create a divergent picture of high-risk speculation coexisting with stable yield products. Funds are no longer solely flowing into Bitcoin or Ethereum but are oscillating between different risk tiers.

● Transitional Track: The on-chain RWA and L2 ecosystem development provide a "transitional layer" for institutions and compliant funds, situated between ETFs and native on-chain assets. These assets maintain on-chain transparent settlement and composability while mitigating the volatility attributes of pure crypto assets through real-world collateral and compliance frameworks, becoming an important option during fund reallocation.

● Stock Game: From the current data scale, it appears more like an internal redistribution of existing funds rather than a comprehensive withdrawal of funds from the entire market. The net outflow from ETFs and the surge of a single meme coin have not altered the structural characteristics of the overall market cap. To judge future trends, it is still necessary to continuously track ETF subscription and redemption data and changes in major public chain TVL, observing whether incremental funds return or if the stock game intensifies.

Risk and Opportunity Repricing After the Split Market

● Pressure Digestion: If the external macro environment remains relatively stable, the current continuous net outflow from ETFs is expected to gradually weaken after the release of phase-related selling pressure. At that time, once prices and valuations return to more attractive ranges, institutions may utilize this "blood loss period" to complete secondary accumulation and turnover, reshaping cost structures.

● Fund Return Pathways: If the on-chain meme heat continues to accumulate without fundamental and long-term value support, it will significantly amplify the probability of a sell-off at high levels. Once sentiment reverses, some short-term profits and panic selling funds are likely to flow back to mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and stable yield products with predictable cash flows, pushing funds back from the extreme leverage end to the center.

● Investor Choices: In the current split market, the core question of every transaction is—where is the funding coming from, and where is it headed? For investors, the key lies in matching their own risk tolerance and holding periods: whether to participate in high-volatility meme tracks for short-term speculation or to follow mining companies and stable funds in search of longer-term, more predictable returns in mainstream assets and fixed income products.

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