In late January, Eastern Standard Time, the US spot ETH and BTC ETFs recorded significant net outflows once again. On one hand, institutions are publicly bullish on Ethereum's long-term prospects in reports and social media; on the other hand, funds are continuously redeeming through the ETF channel, creating a stark contrast. According to Farside data, the single-day net outflow for the ETH spot ETF reached $41.7 million, while the BTC spot ETF saw an even higher net outflow of $103.5 million on the same day. Additionally, on-chain monitoring shows that a certain ETH whale is facing an unrealized loss of over $5.2 million, causing market sentiment to swing violently between "long-term faith" and "short-term stop-loss." Faced with the simultaneous existence of a long-term bullish narrative and short-term capital withdrawal for the same asset, investors are forced to re-examine: which side should they trust, the institutions' long-term vision or the funds voting with their feet?
Long-term Faith on the Table: Yi Lihua's $20,000 Vision
● Perspective and Identity: Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, clearly stated in a public speech that "ETH is expected to exceed $20,000 in the long run." This judgment does not stem from retail sentiment but from his identity as a professional trader and institutional participant who has long traversed between crypto and traditional finance, giving his viewpoint a natural "institutional perspective" and indicative meaning.
● Long-term Narrative: He also emphasized that "investment is about believing before seeing," defining the allocation logic for ETH as a long-term bet based on future technology and protocol status, rather than a short-term price game. Under this narrative, he publicly stated that he adopts a strategy of gradually increasing his position and extending the time frame for ETH, viewing volatility as an opportunity to increase long-term exposure rather than merely a source of risk.
● Information Boundaries and Non-inference: However, Yi Lihua did not disclose specific position sizes, entry costs, or whether leverage was used, among other key details. The research brief also clearly marked this information as missing and prohibited inference, meaning external observers cannot reverse-engineer his precise position structure based on fragmented statements, but can only regard it as a public bullish stance and positioning strategy rather than a replicable specific position model.
● Demonstration Effect and Topic Popularity: Despite limited details, the combination narrative of "a $20,000 vision + long-term accumulation" quickly fermented on Chinese social media, being widely quoted and discussed. On one hand, it reinforced the consensus that "ETH is one of the few assets with long-term institutional-level allocation value"; on the other hand, it also shaped retail investors' imaginative space regarding institutional perspectives, forming a "long-term faith template" with a demonstration effect.
BlackRock's Bet on Tokenization: 65% on Ethereum
● Meaning of Key Proportion: In BlackRock's 2026 Outlook Report, there is a frequently cited statistic — 65% of tokenized assets are deployed on Ethereum. This is not merely a statistic of on-chain activity but a structural judgment by one of the world's largest asset management institutions regarding the future path of traditional assets on-chain, viewing ETH as one of the main chains for tokenized assets.
● Position as a Settlement Layer Rather Than Short-term Boost: Logically, this 65% figure is more of an acknowledgment of Ethereum as an institutional-grade asset custody and settlement layer, rather than a direct short-term price catalyst. It indicates that as more bonds, funds, real estate rights, etc., are tokenized, the ETH ecosystem may become the infrastructure for clearing and registration, with its value capture extending over a longer commercial and regulatory cycle.
● Contrast with Grayscale ETH Mini Trust: Unlike the recent net outflows from the US spot ETH ETF, the brief cites SoSoValue information indicating that the Grayscale ETH Mini Trust ETF still maintains net inflows. This suggests that even amid rising overall risk aversion, some funds still choose to increase their ETH exposure through products with different structures and tax attributes, highlighting the significant differences in fund attributes and investment horizons behind different ETFs and trust products.
● Boundaries of Statistical Criteria: It is important to emphasize that the specific statistical methods regarding tokenized assets in the BlackRock report have not been fully disclosed, and the research brief also explicitly prohibits making assumptions about its statistical criteria and other specific forecast data. Therefore, we can only confirm a general direction — mainstream institutions are more inclined to choose Ethereum in the tokenization race, but we cannot construct precise asset scale curves or revenue forecast models based on this.
Funds Turning Around: Spot ETH and BTC ETFs Under Pressure
● Cold Reality of Net Outflow Data: According to Farside data, on the latest statistical day, the US ETH spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $41.7 million, while the BTC spot ETF experienced a single-day net outflow of $103.5 million. This indicates that the capital withdrawal is not limited to a single public chain but covers both major crypto assets, showing a tendency towards "sector-level deleveraging."
● Picture of Institutions and Retail Investors Reducing Positions Together: In standardized products like ETFs, subscriptions and redemptions simultaneously carry the position adjustments of both institutions and retail investors. The continuous net outflows over several days actually depict a scenario where hedge funds, asset management institutions, and small to medium investors are all using the convenient channel of ETFs to reduce their positions simultaneously. This behavior of "queuing at the door together" essentially reflects a collective choice to avoid short-term risks and recover liquidity.
● Cautious Signals from Miners: The off-chain production side is also not aggressive. The brief cites data from January 23 indicating that mining company Bitdeer's BTC holdings have only slightly increased by 2.3 coins. This "symbolic increase" sharply contrasts with the historical scene of miners significantly expanding their balance sheets and actively hoarding coins at the end of a bull market, resembling a cautious adjustment signal from miners regarding their own balance sheets in a high-price and macro-uncertain environment.
● Possible Reasons Behind Short-term Withdrawal: The collective retreat of short-term funds is often driven by multiple overlapping factors, including ongoing uncertainties in overseas interest rate paths, the need for time to digest previous gains, and an overall increase in the volatility of risk assets. Against this backdrop, both ETF holders and miners consistently choose to move their chips away from high-volatility areas. However, these data only point to behavioral trends and are insufficient to infer any specific price targets or timelines.
Major Losses for Whales and ETF Redemptions: Who is Leading Sentiment
● Unrealized Loss Reality for On-chain Whales: According to on-chain monitoring account AI Aunt, a certain ETH whale is currently facing an unrealized loss of over $5.2 million. This figure comes from verifiable on-chain data, reflecting the comparison of their entry costs and current holdings, showing that even large addresses can find themselves in an awkward position of being trapped at high prices amid severe volatility.
● Stop-loss Motivation and ETF Rhythm Contrast: From the perspective of such large holders, when the unrealized loss expands to the millions, regardless of their risk appetite, they will inevitably reassess whether to stop-loss or reduce their positions. Once these large on-chain addresses choose to sell off or sell in batches, their timing and scale often appear to "synchronously decline" on charts with ETF net outflows. However, this is more like market resonance rather than a singular causal relationship.
● Loosening Chips and Panic Amplification Mechanism: When large chips begin to move frequently on-chain, the market instinctively interprets this as a signal of "smart money retreating," amplifying panic sentiment. Meanwhile, redemptions at the ETF level trigger passive selling, putting pressure on secondary market liquidity in a short time, creating a cycle of "on-chain sell-off — ETF passive selling — price decline — further deterioration of sentiment," causing originally manageable unrealized losses to be magnified on the market.
● Transmission Chain for Small and Medium Investors: For small and medium investors, they often do not directly participate in large on-chain games and find it difficult to access professional position analysis tools, making it easier for them to "second-hand interpret" whale behavior through price candlesticks and ETF fund flows. Once they see the combination of whale unrealized losses, ETF redemptions, and price declines, sentiment can easily spread along the path of "worry — panic — follow the sell-off," making the already fragile market microstructure even more sensitive and fragile.
Long-term Blueprint and Short-term Fear: The Market is Pulled Between Two Timelines
● Intuitive Conflict Between Vision and Reality: On one side is Yi Lihua's vision that "ETH is expected to rise to $20,000," and on the other side is the structural bet in the BlackRock report that 65% of tokenized assets choose Ethereum; meanwhile, there are continuous net outflows recorded by Farside and the case of a whale facing over $5.2 million in unrealized losses. The long-term blueprint and short-term fears are laid out on the table simultaneously, creating the most dramatic contradiction in the current market.
● Separation of Chain Position and Price Volatility: To understand this contradiction, one must first separate the two timelines. One is about "long-term track and chain position" — whether ETH will continue to serve as the settlement and custody layer for mainstream institutions, and whether it can maintain its core position amid the tokenization wave, L2 expansion, and infrastructure upgrades; the other is about "short-term price volatility and liquidity cycles" — ETF subscriptions and redemptions, macro liquidity tightening or loosening, sentiment fluctuations, etc., which determine the price path for the coming weeks or months, and the two do not necessarily synchronize.
● Framework of Misaligned Trading: In the same asset, short-term risk-averse funds and long-term allocation funds often engage in misaligned trading on different time scales and with different cost structures: the former, upon seeing amplified volatility and macro uncertainty, prioritize locking in profits or reducing exposure; the latter may view these pullbacks as opportunities to increase long-term positions. This misalignment allows for the simultaneous existence of "institutional long-term bullishness" and "short-term capital withdrawal" in statistical data without negating each other.
● What Data Can and Cannot Do: The current data we have on ETF net outflows, tokenization ratios, and whale unrealized losses is only sufficient to help us depict behavioral trends and emotional structures, such as who is reducing positions, who is continuously increasing positions, and who is on the sidelines, but it is far from enough to infer any precise top or bottom price ranges. The impulse to read "absolute highs or lows" from a single data point is, in itself, an underestimation of market complexity.
Aligning with Institutional Vision or Following Fund Movements?
The current core narrative regarding ETH can be summarized as a clear "dual-track reality": on one track, traditional financial giants like BlackRock are betting on tokenization in reports, and institutional traders like Yi Lihua are publicly bullish, continuously reinforcing expectations for Ethereum's structural uplift over the long cycle; on the other track, there are the continuous net outflows from the US spot ETH/BTC ETFs, cautious increases in mining companies, and the short-term pressure of large holders facing unrealized losses, collectively pushing funds to retreat from the same asset.
Understanding the market at this stage should not focus solely on any one side's signals. Looking only at on-chain whale addresses may overlook the rhythm of ETFs and off-chain structural funds; focusing only on ETF net outflows may miss changes in on-chain long-term positions and institutional layout routes. For ordinary investors, a more pragmatic starting point for strategy is to first clarify their own time dimension and risk tolerance: if you are closer to a short-term trader, then you need to respect the logic of liquidity and volatility; if you consider yourself a long-term holder, you need to assess whether you can withstand multiple rounds of pullbacks and emotional fluctuations along the way, and then discuss whether and how to "align" with those grand visions from institutions.
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