From January 22 to January 24, in the East 8 Time Zone, the cryptocurrency market experienced a structural differentiation in capital flow under the multiple influences of whale trial and error, mining company portfolio adjustments, and ETF product line upgrades. On one side, a single whale faced an unrealized loss of approximately $135,000 on 3947.97 ETH, while making significant profits on tokenized gold such as XAUT. On the other side, Bitdeer chose to cash out while slightly increasing its holdings during the bull market, with a net increase of 2.3 BTC to 1504.4 BTC this week. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of the tokenized gold sector surpassed $5 billion, coinciding with gold prices climbing above $5,000, and the introduction of a new batch of cryptocurrency basket ETFs (such as the S&P Crypto 10 ETF) reshaped the allocation path of funds between "spot ETFs—multi-asset ETFs—on-chain tokenized assets." This article will analyze the subtle changes in capital sentiment through the behaviors of whales and mining companies, extending to the mid- to long-term landscape of the ETF battlefield and tokenized asset layout.
Whale Mismatch Signals Between ETH and XAUT
● Capital Ledger: On-chain data shows that this whale recently purchased 3947.97 ETH at a cost of approximately $11.91 million, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $135,000 during this round of correction, which is a typical case of "left-side trial and error." Such a large position itself would not shake market prices, but for following funds that pay attention to large addresses, it constitutes a high-exposure "counter-example," reminding the market that there are high-probability scenarios of missteps even in a bull market.
● Risk Hedge Comparison: Unlike the passive pressure on ETH holdings, the same whale is clearly in a profit zone with its positions in tokenized gold such as XAUT, benefiting from the total market capitalization of the tokenized gold sector rising to $5 billion, with XAUT alone having a market cap of about $2.598 billion. The stark contrast between risk assets and safe-haven assets within the same ledger highlights its hedging strategy and objectively reinforces the current capital attraction of "gold on-chain."
● Narrative and Sentiment: After experiencing a peak in sentiment following the last upgrade and expectations for spot ETFs, the narrative around ETH has weakened marginally, and prices have entered a phase of oscillation and digestion, amplifying the perception of short-term unrealized losses. At the same time, rising macro risk aversion and gold prices breaking above $5,000 led the same whale to adopt distinctly different position management strategies for "high-volatility growth assets" and "on-chain safe-haven assets," reflecting a declining patience in the market for single public chain narratives.
● Demonstration Effect: This mismatch case of "ETH unrealized loss + XAUT profit" serves as a strong emotional demonstration for small and medium investors: on one hand, it reinforces awareness of short-term trading, profit-taking, and stop-loss strategies; on the other hand, it prompts more funds to consider whether to introduce safe-haven varieties into their portfolios. The result is an intensified game between "shorting mainstream high-beta assets like ETH" and "long-term holding of low-volatility assets like tokenized gold," shifting the capital mindset from single bets to portfolio defense.
Gold Breaking $5,000 Fuels On-Chain Gold Surge
● Volume Leap: The total market capitalization of the tokenized gold sector has now surpassed $5 billion, with XAUT holding a core weight of about $2.598 billion, effectively transferring part of the physical gold or OTC gold exposure onto the blockchain. For crypto-native funds, this means they can directly switch between high-risk tokens and gold-linked assets on the same trading and clearing infrastructure, reducing cross-market migration costs.
● Macro Spillover: The gold price breaking through the $5,000 mark in the global market provides strong macro backing for tokenized gold products. The upward trend of traditional safe-haven assets has led some institutions, which previously allocated gold only in spot or futures markets, to begin evaluating the feasibility of obtaining similar exposure through on-chain tokenized products; at the same time, crypto-native funds view it as "on-chain gold," bringing macro market spillover benefits directly into the crypto ecosystem.
● Risk-Return: Compared to high-volatility assets like ETH, the prices of tokenized gold products are more anchored to OTC gold quotes, with their intraday volatility and depth of drawdown generally significantly lower than mainstream public chain assets. During times of rising risk aversion, this "limited upside + controllable drawdown" return characteristic gives it a natural advantage when funds seek defensive positions, making it particularly suitable as a risk buffer in high-volatility portfolios rather than purely speculative targets.
● Institutional Tooling: As whales and institutions explore more refined asset allocation, tokenized gold is evolving from a "conceptual product" to a "portfolio management tool." With its volume surpassing $5 billion and leading assets like XAUT reaching $2.598 billion, on-chain gold is increasingly expected to become an important tool for large funds to hedge against systemic volatility in the crypto market and diversify risks, playing a more central role in multi-asset strategies and crypto versions of "60/40" portfolio construction.
Bitdeer’s Incremental Accumulation and Mining Company Rhythm
● Position Profile: As of this week, mining company Bitdeer holds 1504.4 BTC, with a net increase of 2.3 BTC over the week. Coupled with its previous choice to cash out partially during the bull market, this forms a typical example of "selling while buying." This seemingly "marginal" increase actually reflects that when prices are already at relatively high levels, mining companies place greater emphasis on cash flow security and downside buffering rather than blindly betting on further price increases.
● Triple Constraints: Mining company decisions are constrained by electricity costs, cash flow pressures, and price expectations: electricity prices and operational expenses constitute rigid costs, requiring continuous cashing out to maintain operations; upward price expectations in a bull market drive them to retain a certain amount of self-mined BTC for higher returns. Bitdeer’s choice to incrementally increase by +2.3 BTC weekly reflects a rational attitude towards the market, seeking a balance between continuous monetization and moderate accumulation.
● Cycle Comparison: Looking back at past cycles, many mining companies chose to significantly reduce holdings and lock in fiat profits during euphoric phases or aggressively hoard coins at peak areas, resulting in substantial paper losses during subsequent corrections. In this round, mining companies represented by Bitdeer are more inclined to replace directional gambling with rhythm control: neither significantly dumping nor betting on peaks, this "steady stream" adjustment model is clearly more robust compared to historical extreme behaviors.
● Supply Rhythm: Mining companies are one of the main sources of new BTC supply, and their selling pressure rhythm directly affects the supply-demand balance in the secondary market. If most mining companies adopt strategies like Bitdeer’s of cashing out while slightly increasing holdings, new supply will be released in a relatively smooth manner, helping to mitigate concentrated selling pressure at any single point in time. In the long run, this optimization of supply-side rhythm will help BTC prices gradually rise in a more stable fluctuation rather than relying on violent ups and downs for revaluation.
Cryptocurrency Basket ETFs Reshape Capital Pathways
● New Players Enter: Asset management company Cyber Hornet has submitted an application for the S&P Crypto 10 ETF, marking the official entry of multi-asset index-based cryptocurrency basket ETFs into the competitive arena. Unlike the previous focus on single-asset spot ETFs, these products attempt to replicate the logic of traditional index funds by bundling a basket of mainstream crypto assets into a more standardized configuration tool that is easier for institutions to accept.
● Weight Structure: According to the briefing, the proposed holding structure of the CTX ETF includes 69% BTC and 14% ETH, with other component information currently unavailable. This design, with BTC as the absolute core and ETH as a secondary weight, allows it to function both as a substitute for BTC spot ETFs—providing high correlation market Beta—and as a supplement—naturally embedding exposure to assets like ETH within the same product, reducing the operational costs for institutions to purchase and approve multiple single-asset ETFs.
● Intensifying Competition: Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that "competition in the cryptocurrency basket ETF space is intensifying," driven by traditional index providers recognizing the long-term allocation value of crypto assets and accelerating the launch of various index solutions. From a market structure perspective, this means that crypto assets are no longer just "alternative single targets," but are systematically integrated into multi-asset portfolios and index products, pushing them from speculative items to asset classes.
● Capital Pathways: The rise of multi-asset ETFs is quietly changing the way capital flows in: in the past, institutions often focused on "single bets on BTC spot ETFs," but in the future, they may obtain exposure to BTC, ETH, and other component assets simultaneously through a single cryptocurrency index ETF. The result is a decrease in the concentration of funds in single assets and an increase in the proportion of portfolio configurations, which is expected to smooth market fluctuations overall, but may also weaken the pricing power advantage of individual assets in structural markets, pushing valuation logic to return more to fundamentals and weight battles.
Institutional Landscape Expansion and Multi-Track Closure
● Event Background: At the primary market level, the departure of a partner from a16z Crypto to start a new venture also reflects a redefinition of the institutional landscape. This partner publicly stated that the new institution "plans to expand its investment scope to cover multiple vertical fields," indicating a desire not to be limited to betting on a single public chain or track, but to diversify across a broader crypto and Web3 ecosystem, extending traditional early-stage venture capital thinking into a complex network of multi-track intersections.
● Multi-Field Layout: A new fund aiming to "cover multiple vertical fields" means that funding will simultaneously support various directions, from public chains and infrastructure to application layers and financial products. Compared to earlier practices that heavily invested in a specific Layer 1 or focused solely on a single track like DeFi/NFT, current institutions emphasize correlation management and hedging within portfolios, hoping that growth in other vertical fields can offset overall portfolio drawdowns when a bubble or correction occurs in one track.
● Closure Shaping: As traditional index providers accelerate the launch of cryptocurrency basket ETFs on the product side, venture capital institutions are expanding their multi-track layouts on the primary side, together shaping a capital closure of "ETFs above, projects below." On one hand, the growth of primary projects provides richer components and rebalancing space for index ETFs; on the other hand, the continuous inflow of ETF funds offers more stable secondary market liquidity and valuation anchors for mature projects and leading tracks, strengthening the positive feedback channel between the crypto market and traditional finance.
● Investor Impact: For ordinary investors, the expansion of institutions into multiple tracks and the surge of index products mean a significant increase in selectable targets and tools, but also raise the threshold for research and selection. In the reality of asymmetric information and professional capabilities, the passive following of index and ETF configurations will become more attractive, promoting the accelerated popularization of "index investing" in the crypto market, while also giving rise to new service demands around index interpretation and asset allocation consulting.
The Next Stop for Whale Trial and Institutional Deployment
● Capital Preference Restructuring: Analyzing the differentiated operations of whales in ETH and XAUT, Bitdeer's cautious incremental accumulation, and the performance of tokenized gold reaching a market value of $5 billion, it can be observed that capital is shifting from single high-beta bets to more refined risk stratification: some funds continue to chase growth assets like ETH, but at the same time, an increasing amount of large capital is actively allocating to on-chain gold and defensive-like assets, forming a structural preference of "offense + defense" in parallel.
● ETFs and Capital Pathways: The emergence of cryptocurrency basket ETFs, combined with the deep involvement of traditional index providers, along with existing single-asset spot ETFs, is reshaping the entry pathways and risk exposure methods for institutional capital. The mainstream model in the future may evolve from "first buying BTC spot ETFs, then self-accumulating other tokens" to "gaining multi-asset exposure at once through a basket ETF, supplemented by a small amount of actively managed positions," with capital inflows and outflows becoming more reliant on index weight changes and product design logic.
● Three Observation Lines: In this evolutionary process, three main lines are worth closely tracking: first, the interplay between gold prices and macro interest rates, and how it continues to affect the demand for tokenized gold and the valuation of on-chain safe-haven assets; second, the progress of applications and product iterations for spot ETFs and cryptocurrency basket ETFs, and how they will change the passive capital proportion in mainstream assets like BTC and ETH; third, the changes in holdings of mining companies and whales, especially the rhythm adjustments of large mining companies like Bitdeer and leading whales, and their direct impact on supply and demand and volatility in the secondary market.
● Cautious Conclusion: Looking ahead, in the short term, the divergence of capital between growth and safe-haven assets, as well as between spot ETFs and multi-asset ETFs, will continue to amplify price volatility, with some assets potentially experiencing a dramatic switch of "overcrowding—rapid redemption." However, in the medium to long term, the capital landscape is evolving towards a direction of "multi-asset, cross-track, coexistence of hedging and offense": the trial and error of whales, the rational rhythm control of mining companies, and the comprehensive deployment of institutions on both the product and project sides are collectively pushing the cryptocurrency market towards a new stage that is closer to traditional asset allocation logic while still retaining high growth potential.
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