This round of market volatility does not stem from a structural deterioration in the fundamentals of crypto assets, but rather resembles a phase of repricing under external macro disturbances. Trump's latest round of tariff threats should be viewed not as traditional trade policy, but as a strategic means of creating market volatility and strengthening negotiation leverage. The market has gradually adapted to this rhythm: news shocks first trigger price repricing, and when liquidity tightens, sell-offs are amplified; once negotiation signals are released, prices often stabilize quickly, and trading returns to a relatively orderly state.

In this process, the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity has continued to strengthen, gradually playing the role of a high-beta proxy for global liquidity, rather than a traditional macro hedging tool. The current price pullback is more of a trading-level adjustment rather than a trend reversal.

Tariff Strategy Reshapes Volatility Rhythm: Bitcoin Becomes a Preemptive Reaction Asset to Macro Shocks

Trump's trade strategy in his second term has evolved into a clear "two-step escalation" mechanism: first announcing initial tariff arrangements, then setting higher subsequent rates. This design creates immediate liquidity shocks while providing the market with clear time anchors. Related statements often bypass traditional diplomatic channels and are concentrated on weekends, allowing Bitcoin to first absorb macro shocks during traditional market closures, becoming a risk pricing vehicle with ample liquidity.

From the market's response, Bitcoin's volatility during weekends is often relatively restrained, while selling pressure significantly deepens after U.S. stock futures resume trading. This indicates that the current price adjustment is not primarily driven by retail sentiment, but rather by traditional financial participants rebalancing their cross-asset risk exposure after liquidity returns. As long as the market continues to respond to this "maximum pressure - tactical cooling" rhythm, Bitcoin will remain at the forefront of macro disturbances.

Volatility Does Not Equal Reversal: Repetitive Trading Windows in Tactical Pullbacks

Since 2025, the market narrative around Bitcoin has shown a clear shift—from "inflation hedge asset" to a high-beta indicator highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity. Tariff-related statements often trigger phase pullbacks of about 3%–7%, which are not due to fundamental deterioration, but rather the result of a stronger dollar and rising stagflation expectations, leading institutional trading desks to actively deleverage and reduce risk exposure.

In this framework, tariffs are the means, while volatility is the goal. Such volatility instead creates repetitive trading windows: shock phases intensify negotiation pressure, and before events ease and risk appetite recovers, they often correspond to relatively favorable positioning ranges. Meanwhile, implied volatility has not significantly increased, indicating that the market does not view this as a structural risk escalation.

Overall, this round of Bitcoin pullback is more tactical than a trend reversal. As the market gradually sees through this negotiation rhythm and incorporates its effects into pricing, Bitcoin's weight as the primary pricing vehicle for related statements may marginally decline. In the context of overall resilience in risk assets, the necessity for continued concern is limited. For investors, rather than overinterpreting short-term headlines, it is more beneficial to focus on changes in pricing and liquidity structure—within a disciplined framework, the value of positioning at lower levels remains higher than concerns over "structural reversals."

The above viewpoints are partly derived from Matrix on Target, contact us_ for the complete report on Matrix on Target._

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。