1. No Bottoming Out, No Reversal

Currently, from the market perspective, Bitcoin shows no signals for going long, nor are there signs of a bottom reversal.

Many friends are asking, what constitutes a reversal signal?

In simple terms, at least on the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframe, we need to see a structure of "uptrend - pullback - uptrend," meaning that the swing highs and lows are continuously rising, which could indicate a reversal of the downtrend.

However, such a structure does not currently exist.

The current trend resembles a consolidation and fluctuation formed from yesterday to today after a previous sharp decline, and does not belong to a bottoming structure. Therefore, whether it is a bottoming out or a reversal, none have appeared, and bulls do not have the conditions to participate.

Even if you subjectively believe that this decline has gone on long enough and the price "should rebound," you should not go long based on that. Trading is not about feelings, but based on objective facts that have already occurred.

2. Empiricism is Often a Trap in Trading

Many people trade based on experience and feelings, such as "this position has rebounded before."
However, from a long-term perspective, empiricism is often unreliable.

Occasionally being right based on experience can easily lead to amplified memories while overlooking more instances of being wrong. What truly matters is not "whether I think it will rebound," but whether the market has provided signals for bottoming out and reversing.

As long as these signals have not appeared, one should not operate against the trend.

3. No Reversal During the Downtrend, Going with the Trend is Key

For example, from a high of 100,700 down to 80,000, there were no reversal signals throughout this entire trend.
In this case, attempting to "catch the bottom" at any position essentially carries a significant risk of loss.

Therefore, until reversal signals appear, one can only look to short, which is also why we mentioned yesterday that short positions can continue to be held.

4. Analysis of Pullbacks and Key Ranges

Some in the market are analyzing potential rebound paths, suggesting that after breaking down from the channel, there may be an initial false breakdown, followed by a pullback, and then a continuation of the downtrend.

If the entire downtrend pulls back 0.5-0.618, the corresponding key price range would be 92,500-93,800.

The premise is that the horizontal resistance above on the 1-hour level must be effectively broken.

However, currently, this resistance level has not been broken, so the corresponding pullback expectation does not exist.

If a pullback does occur at the upper resistance level in the future, it would provide a good opportunity for a high-position short layout. But as of now, this possibility is very small.

5. 90,000 Remains a Key Resistance Level

Looking back at previous trends, after the price broke 90,000, we looked towards 94,000 and eventually reached around 98,000, primarily due to the confirmation of support after breaking resistance.

Currently, in this downtrend, the price has broken below that support and has formed a swap between support and resistance on the 1-hour level.

The clearest resistance level remains at 90,000, which has not yet been broken.

6. Overall Thinking and Target Ranges

Considering the recent strength in gold and silver, Bitcoin is still under pressure overall. This downtrend appears more like a continuation structure after a reversal of the bullish trend.

Short-term target: Pay attention to whether the previous low breaks, focusing on 80,000.
Medium to long-term target: Watch for a break below 70,000.

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