In early 2026, French hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger was reported by multiple media outlets to be preparing for an IPO in the United States, with internal discussions targeting a valuation of over $4 billion. Established in 2014, Ledger is a veteran player in cold storage and is poised to claim the title of "the first publicly listed company in the crypto hardware space," bringing the cold wallet business, which has remained a narrative within the community, into the spotlight on Wall Street. This is not only a collective vote on security and self-custody but also a pricing game about cycles and valuations: amidst the high volatility of crypto market capitalization, whether there is sufficient support and imaginative space between the real demand for cold wallets and the multi-billion dollar valuation expectations has become the core question for the market.
From Paris Startup to Crypto Hardware
● Founding and Geographic Gene: Ledger was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Paris. Initially, it was just a hardware security startup within the European crypto circle. Over the past decade, it has transitioned from a niche geek brand to a globally recognized cold wallet manufacturer. The traditional financial and technological intersection in Paris has naturally positioned Ledger at the crossroads of "security technology + financial applications," laying the groundwork for its subsequent move to the capital markets.
● Position in the Cold Storage Track: In the hardware wallet segment, Ledger has become one of the most recognized brands in the industry due to its multiple product iterations and early market entry. Whether for personal users with portable devices or higher-spec solutions for institutions, Ledger occupies a place in the perception that "cold storage = higher security," making it the preferred entry point for many crypto investors transitioning from exchanges to self-custody.
● Market Size Strongly Correlated with Total Market Capitalization: Industry analysts generally believe that "hardware wallets as cold storage solutions have a market size directly related to the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies." This means that every upward movement in crypto asset market capitalization will reflect new demand for cold wallets after a time lag; conversely, during market contractions and decreased trading activity, hardware sales will also face significant pressure, with Ledger's growth curve highly synchronized with the fluctuations of the entire crypto market capitalization.
● Initial Release of IPO Intent: According to public information, Ledger's CEO publicly stated in November 2025 that they were considering the possibility of an IPO in the United States. This statement officially upgraded previous discussions around the company's financing and expansion to a "capital market story" rehearsal, providing a clear timeline for the current preparations for a U.S. IPO and the pursuit of a multi-billion dollar valuation, indicating that this IPO is not a sudden decision but rather a path that has been brewing for over a year.
Valuation Jump from $1.5 Billion to Sprinting for $4 Billion
● Timeline of Valuation Leap: According to research briefs, after a round of financing in 2023, Ledger's market valuation was approximately $1.5 billion (from a single source). In just a few years, the IPO target valuation now reported has pointed to over $4 billion, indicating that without disclosing complete financial data and profit performance, the secondary market's expectations for its company value have seen an almost threefold increase, which itself constitutes a capital narrative that needs to be explained.
● Revenue Metrics and Multiple Expectations: The only financial metric provided by Ledger's CEO in public is that the company has "annual revenue exceeding $100 million," but more granular figures, profit margins, and growth curves have not been disclosed. In the absence of detailed financial reports, a valuation above $4 billion implies high expectations from capital for sustained revenue growth over the next few years, increased industry penetration, and potential expansion into new product categories, pushing the market's discussion on the "hardware wallet ceiling" to the forefront.
● Symbolic Significance of Capital Lineup (Partially to be Verified): Public information shows that Ledger's main investors include True Global Ventures and 10T Holdings (marked as partially to be verified). These funds, focused on technology and crypto infrastructure, have early bets on Ledger's cold storage track, providing endorsement for the subsequent IPO story and a "liquidity window for old shareholders." However, specific shareholding ratios and exit arrangements have not been disclosed, leaving the outside world to infer the market's recognition of its business model from the investment style.
● Scarcity Premium of "First Crypto Hardware IPO": Multiple media outlets have commented that "if Ledger successfully goes public, it will become the first publicly listed company in the crypto hardware field." The rarity of this category debut often translates into a premium in both primary and secondary markets—not only due to the rare pure hardware crypto target but also because it is seen as a valuation anchor for the entire cold storage track. When pricing Ledger, the market is not only assessing a company's cash flow but also betting on the grand question of whether "crypto hardware can become an independent asset class."
Cold Storage Business and Crypto Cycle: A Timeline to Align
● Market Capitalization Expansion's Amplifying Effect on Demand: From the perspective of industry analysts, there is an amplifying effect between cold wallet sales and total crypto market capitalization: when total market capitalization reaches a new level, not only are existing holders more willing to pay for security, but new funds entering the market will actively seek self-custody solutions. Hardware manufacturers like Ledger often see a concentrated release of orders in the latter half of a bull market, but this also means that their performance peaks are inherently cyclical rather than linear compounding growth.
● Bull and Bear Migration and Sales Volatility: During bull market phases, users typically transition from the fiat world to exchanges and then gradually migrate to self-custody, with cold wallets becoming tools for "realizing paper profits and preventing black swans"; in bear markets, new funds sharply decrease, and many investors reduce their trading frequency or even gradually liquidate, leading to a noticeable decline in demand for new hardware. Consequently, Ledger's hardware sales exhibit clear cyclical peaks and troughs, posing higher demands on supply chain planning and inventory management, making its revenue difficult to smooth out completely.
● Risk Pricing of Revenue Binding Cycles: Research briefs clearly state that Ledger's current revenue narrative is highly dependent on crypto market fluctuations, and in the absence of complete financial report disclosures, it is challenging for outsiders to assess its cash flow resilience and cost control capabilities during off-seasons. For potential IPO investors, how to price this "cyclically amplified" business is a key challenge—overvaluation may be ruthlessly compressed in the next bear market, while undervaluation may fail to reflect its profit elasticity during high industry prosperity.
● $4 Billion Valuation and Penetration Rate Question: Given that the current total market capitalization of crypto has not firmly established a historical high and user awareness of self-custody remains limited, the market naturally questions: Is the current market capitalization and hardware penetration rate sufficient to support the imagination of a cold wallet manufacturer being valued at over $4 billion? The answer to this question depends on investors' judgments about whether the crypto market capitalization can continue to expand in the coming years and whether the self-custody culture will spread from early players to a broader user base, which is precisely the most uncertain part.
The Threshold to Wall Street: The Translation Challenge of Crypto Hardware
● Path Selection from French Company to U.S. IPO: As a French company headquartered in Paris, Ledger's choice to move towards the U.S. capital market is itself a strategic bet: on one hand, the U.S. has a more mature pricing system for technology and growth stocks, making it easier to assign high valuations to crypto infrastructure stories; on the other hand, landing on U.S. exchanges also means accepting higher intensity of information disclosure and regulatory scrutiny, pushing a local startup to the center of the global financial stage, raising higher demands for its governance and compliance capabilities.
● Symbolism of Traditional Investment Bank Endorsement (Rumors to be Verified): Research briefs mention that Ledger has collaborated with traditional investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays (information to be verified), which the market largely views as an important signal for its IPO push. Although specific underwriting arrangements, fee structures, and internal attitudes of the investment banks have not been determined and should not be interpreted as set in stone, these names themselves carry symbolic significance: they represent that the crypto hardware story is beginning to enter the traditional Wall Street discourse system, rather than just being a financing legend within the community.
● Core Questions from Institutions about the Business Model: For many traditional institutions, the hardware wallet business model still seems unfamiliar. Their core concerns include: Is the revenue from one-time hardware sales stable enough? Can subsequent software services, enterprise-level solutions, and potential subscription models build recurring revenue? In a regulatory environment that remains fluctuating, will the relationship between hardware and on-chain activities pose additional compliance risks for the company? These questions need to be systematically answered in the prospectus and roadshow.
● Translating the Crypto Narrative into "Security + Growth + Moat": To persuade Wall Street, Ledger must translate the crypto-native narratives of "cold storage, self-custody, decentralization" into three things familiar to traditional investors: security (providing infrastructure-level protection in a crypto world prone to black swans), growth (aligning with the long-term trends of market capitalization expansion and self-custody proliferation), and moat (technological barriers, brand recognition, and compliance first-mover advantages). Only in this context does the valuation story of over $4 billion have a chance of being accepted by mainstream capital.
Regulatory Shadows and Listing Roadblocks: A Dual Test of Time and Structure
● Timeline and Financial Disclosure Gaps: So far, reports surrounding Ledger's IPO have emphasized one premise—there is no clear IPO timeline; the earliest time given in research briefs is merely "within 2026." In the absence of a public prospectus and with the latest financial information being almost blank aside from the "annual revenue exceeding $100 million" metric, any discussions about valuation, issuance rhythm, and fundraising scale carry a high degree of uncertainty, leaving the market to piece together outlines from limited information.
● Amplifying Effect of the U.S. Regulatory Environment: U.S. regulatory agencies have always taken a cautious stance on IPO applications from crypto-related companies, scrutinizing everything from business compliance boundaries and information disclosure completeness to potential systemic risks under a magnifying glass. For Ledger, positioned as "crypto hardware infrastructure," how to clarify its role in the prospectus as not directly participating in token issuance and trading, but primarily providing security tools, will directly impact regulators' assessments of its risk level and determine whether it can pass the review smoothly.
● Underwriters and Listing Locations Still at the Rumor Level: Although there are various speculations in the market about potential underwriters and specific listing locations, research briefs clearly categorize this information as market rumors, not yet confirmed. Before formal disclosure, recklessly treating it as a fait accompli could mislead investors and create unnecessary pressure on regulation and communication. Therefore, current discussions about Ledger's IPO should focus more on the macro level of the "U.S. IPO path" rather than specific exchanges and underwriting structures.
● Governance Migration from Private Company to Public Company: Once the decision is made to enter the public market, Ledger must complete a structural migration from a private crypto company to a public company: including board composition, proportion of independent directors, frequency and transparency of information disclosure, internal controls, and audit mechanisms. These seemingly mundane institutional arrangements are, in fact, key thresholds for traditional institutions to judge whether a crypto company is "investable," and they represent a new layer of "moat" that Ledger needs to prove to the market beyond technology and security.
An Experiment on Security, Cycles, and Pricing
Overall, Ledger's attempt to enter the U.S. capital market with a target valuation of over $4 billion is essentially a pricing experiment that overlays the "cold storage demand curve," "crypto market cycle fluctuations," and "capital market risk appetite." Factors such as hardware wallet penetration rates, expectations for the expansion of total crypto market capitalization, the speed of self-custody culture diffusion, and the company's own expansion into enterprise-level and security services will determine whether its reasonable valuation range is close to $4 billion, requires a discount for safety margins, or can achieve greater premium elasticity in the next bull market.
If Ledger successfully completes its IPO, it will become the first secondary market sample in the crypto hardware infrastructure track, providing a clear valuation anchor for subsequent similar projects—whether hardware wallets, custody technologies, or security module manufacturers. Competitors in future financing will benefit from the positive demonstration of a "validated track," but will also have to benchmark their product safety, revenue structure, and compliance development against Ledger's public company standards, significantly raising the capitalization threshold for the entire infrastructure track.
Looking further into the future, the continued expansion of crypto market capitalization, the gradual establishment of regulatory frameworks in various countries, and the spread of self-custody culture from a few players to a broader user base will collectively reshape companies like Ledger's long-term pricing power within the industry chain. As institutions enter the market and compliance infrastructure improves, the willingness to pay for security and custody is expected to shift from "event-driven" to "essential for allocation," but the length and complexity of this path remain difficult to predict.
For potential investors, key signals to focus on in the coming period include: the timing and disclosure details of Ledger's formal submission of the prospectus, regulatory agencies' qualitative assessments of its business boundaries and risks, the finalization of the underwriting lineup and issuance structure, and the timing of the next cycle in the crypto market. These milestone events will continue to adjust the market's collective expectations regarding whether "cold wallets can support a $4 billion valuation" in the coming years, and will determine whether this IPO is a turning point for crypto infrastructure moving into the mainstream or yet another capital illusion amplified by cycles.
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