On January 22, 2026, 1.8 million PENDLE tokens from an address related to Pendle investors or teams were transferred to Bybit, attracting significant attention in the market of the UTC+8 time zone. This amount, which will be gradually unlocked through token allocation contracts from April 2022 to April 2023, had a total value of approximately $266,000, but at the price during this transfer, it has risen to about $3.83 million, reflecting several times the paper profit over a holding period of nearly three years. The current core controversy in the market is whether this will evolve into short-term selling pressure and liquidity shock. This article will analyze the possible paths and marginal implications of this event from dimensions such as the source of the tokens and profit structure, the behavior characteristics of long-term holders, and the potential impact of exchange transfers on market depth and sentiment.
1.8 Million Tokens Entering the Market: The Profile of the Holder Behind This Transfer
● Token Source Path: According to A and C, the source of these 1.8 million PENDLE tokens is clear, as they were continuously unlocked through Pendle token allocation contracts from April 2022 to April 2023, representing typical early-stage equity release tokens rather than short-term buying funds from the secondary market. This source attribute makes them closer to "original tokens" related to investors or teams, carrying stronger signaling significance for the market.
● Quantifying Profit Scale: With an accumulated value of approximately $266,000 during the unlocking period and about $3.83 million at the time of this transfer, this batch of tokens has achieved several times the paper appreciation, with absolute profits exceeding one million dollars. Even without precisely breaking down the price path over different stages, it can be judged from the starting point and current value that this represents a high-yield position that has traversed a complete bull-bear cycle, making its every move easily subject to market amplification.
● Holding Period Characteristics: From the first batch of unlocks in April 2022 to the transfer to Bybit on January 22, 2026, the time span is nearly three years. According to A and C, this is reflected on-chain as a long-term holding posture with no significant reduction in holdings, more akin to strategic tokens rather than high-frequency trading funds. It is precisely this model of "years of inactivity followed by a large transfer" that categorizes it narratively as a typical signal of loosening long-term holding tokens.
● Address Attribute Boundaries: The current market generally views this address as related to Pendle investors or teams, a judgment primarily based on its path characteristics of obtaining tokens through allocation contracts, but the specific affiliation has not received official public confirmation. Out of caution, this article will only describe it as an address related to investors or teams based on "according to A and C," without further inferring specific identities or internal decision-making motives.
From $266,000 to $3.83 Million: The Profit Curve and Circulation Implications of Long-Term Tokens
● Price Increase Range Characterization: From the starting point of approximately $266,000 during the unlocking phase from April 2022 to April 2023, to about $3.83 million at the time of transfer to Bybit on January 22, 2026, this batch of tokens has experienced a significant rise in the price of Pendle. Even without reviewing the complete price path from 2022 to 2026 in segments, measuring from the starting point and current market value is sufficient to reflect that its yield is already in a high range, representing a typical case of "high multiple profits after traversing cycles."
● Risk Tolerance and Expectations: According to A and C, there have been no clear large sell records from this address for a long time after unlocking (relevant details still need further on-chain verification), indicating that the holder did not choose to cash out midway through multiple rounds of volatility but instead pushed both risk tolerance and profit expectations to a longer-term dimension. This behavior pattern typically corresponds to stronger fundamental beliefs or higher target profit thresholds, so once there is a loosening of tokens, it is more likely to be viewed by the market as a signal of "profit realization" or "risk reassessment."
● Marginal Impact on Circulation and Market Value Structure: Structurally, once such long-term locked tokens enter exchanges or other circulation pools, they shift from "potential selling pressure" to "explicit supply available for trading at any time." Assuming the total circulating supply remains unchanged, the concentration of tokens available for circulation will undergo slight adjustments in the short term. If the 1.8 million tokens are gradually sold into the secondary market afterward, it could change the existing holding distribution of Pendle, weaken the original token locking structure, and thus have a certain marginal impact on market value stability and shock resistance.
Tokens Pressured Towards Bybit: Potential Selling Pressure or Structural Adjustment
● Recharge and Sell Segmentation: The only fact currently verifiable by on-chain data is the transfer of 1.8 million PENDLE to Bybit, with no public on-chain details regarding subsequent orders or transactions. It is important to emphasize that "transferring to an exchange" is not logically equivalent to "actual selling"; the former merely moves tokens into a more liquid environment, and whether it creates selling pressure depends on subsequent ordering and transaction behavior.
● Impact Magnitude Hypothesis: From the order book perspective, if 1.8 million PENDLE tokens are concentrated and sold in a short time, it will undoubtedly exert pressure on existing buy orders, triggering a rapid price drop and slippage; if sold in batches or coordinated with off-exchange hedging or market-making positions, the impact will be diluted over a longer time frame. Since the briefing did not provide detailed depth and multi-platform comparison data, this article can only make interval deductions based on transaction volume and scale, without being able to restore the specific distribution curve of sell orders.
● Emotional Precedent Reaction: According to A, there are already voices in the market suggesting that "the 1.8 million PENDLE transferred to the exchange may create short-term selling pressure." In the crypto market, discovering large amounts of tokens moving to exchanges is itself a strong emotional trigger, often preceding actual transaction behavior, affecting price expectations and short-term trading strategies, prompting some funds to reduce positions early or increase defensive positions.
● Multiple Motivational Spaces: It is particularly important to note that this transfer action has various possible motivations, including but not limited to phased cashing out, hedging other related exposures, participating in exchange staking/lending products, or preparing to provide market-making liquidity. In the absence of subsequent order book and transaction data, simply equating it to "immediate dumping" is not rigorous; investors should maintain an open judgment on multiple paths while observing subsequent on-chain and order book changes.
Market Sentiment and Liquidity: How a Batch of Tokens Amplifies the Narrative
● Mainstream Interpretation Context: According to A and public discussions from on-chain analysis accounts (which still require verification), many community viewpoints have interpreted this transfer as a potential source of selling pressure, directly linking "long-term holder tokens moving to exchanges" with "profit-taking at high levels." While this interpretation has a certain logical basis, in the absence of clear selling signals, it largely reflects the market's vigilance towards the loosening of high-yield tokens rather than a review of concrete trading behavior.
● Volume Weight Assessment: If we consider Pendle's current overall liquidity and daily trading volume, the specific proportion of the 1.8 million tokens relative to the market will determine the extent to which it can dominate short-term price fluctuations. Although the briefing did not provide precise total circulating volume and daily trading amounts, at the level of several million dollars in market value, such a single batch of tokens is usually sufficient to cover the natural trading volume of one or even multiple trading days, posing substantial potential for price range and order book structure disruption.
● Signal Effect of "Long-Term Profit Positions Loosening": Once the market labels this event as "long-term profit positions beginning to loosen," other early holders and secondary market funds often adjust their behavior accordingly. On one hand, some old tokens may be triggered to follow suit and reduce positions, fearing they might miss the cashing-out window; on the other hand, short-term funds may exacerbate volatility in advance, amplifying the bearish narrative to achieve greater amplitude, and this self-fulfilling expectation mechanism can itself amplify the price impact of a single event.
● Possible Pathways for Emotional Dulling: If no clear large sell signals directly associated with these 1.8 million tokens appear on-chain subsequently, and prices gradually stabilize after short-term fluctuations, market sentiment often evolves from initial panic to "message digestion." In this scenario, the transfer event initially viewed as a strong bearish signal will gradually be absorbed into the context of daily fluctuations, with the narrative focus returning to Pendle's own fundamentals and the broader macro market environment.
Reading Method: How Not to Be "Led by the Rhythm" by a Single Large Transfer
● Complete Link Tracking: In the face of similar large token transfers to exchanges, observers should construct a complete data link from deposit → order placement → transaction → on-chain balance changes, rather than stopping at the single point of "discovering a large deposit." Only when large sell orders appear after the deposit and are actually executed, while on-chain balances decrease simultaneously, can it be relatively certain that this batch of tokens has transformed into real selling pressure.
● Information Annotation and Verification: For details such as "whether the address has never sold since unlocking" and "whether there has been no clear selling signal," it is essential to rely on on-chain data and reliable intelligence, clearly annotating "according to A and C" or "to be verified" when used. Treating unverified information as established facts not only amplifies emotional biases but also easily creates misleading narratives in the market, undermining the credibility of data analysis itself.
● Investor Risk Management Thinking: In practical terms, when encountering events like large token entries into exchanges, investors can adopt tiered position management and emotional filtering mechanisms: on one hand, not to operate emotionally with full positions due to a single event, but to adjust positions in segments based on their own cycles and risk tolerance; on the other hand, to view large transfers as "risk factors that need close tracking," combining order book depth, transaction volume, and on-chain capital flow data to decide whether to take profits, hedge, or maintain a wait-and-see approach.
Where Will This Three-Year-Old Token Go Next?
In summary, this large transfer of long-term unlocked tokens from Pendle to Bybit will primarily influence the market in the short term through three dimensions: first, on the price level, the potential release of 1.8 million circulating tokens may amplify the volatility range; second, on the liquidity level, the tokens shifting from a locked state to an exchange environment changes the structure of tradable supply; third, on the emotional level, the movement of long-term high-yield tokens is seen as a potential signal of "cycle realization," triggering associations with subsequent selling waves. The biggest key uncertainty currently lies in whether these tokens will be actually sold and the specific rhythm of that process. Readers need to continuously track on-chain balance changes, exchange orders, and transaction data to avoid drawing conclusions solely based on the deposit action. From an overall judgment perspective, this event indeed has the potential to amplify volatility in the short term, but the ultimate impact will still depend on Pendle's own fundamental performance, the overall liquidity environment in the market, and whether this old batch of tokens chooses to truly exit or participate in more complex capital operations.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
