Bitcoin is stalling while gold grinds higher.

The reason could be in Japanese bonds.

Normally rising yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non yielding asset.

When gold and yields move together, the market is pricing policy stress and balance sheet fragility instead of growth.

Japan's 10Y bonds are sitting at +3.65 standard deviations above its long run mean.

Japanese banks are structurally long duration and deeply exposed to Japanese government bonds as both assets and collateral.

While Gold is absorbing this stress. BTC has remained inversely correlated with JP10Y, and over longer horizons has consistently struggled as Japanese yields rise.

If the BOJ steps in to stabilize the JGB market, the stress premium in gold could ease and BTC gets room to recover.

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