On January 22, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, the Mirana Ventures associated wallet suddenly transferred 13.65 million MNT to Bybit after being dormant for about three years. This amount is estimated to be around $12.2 million based on the day's valuation. This significant movement of funds was immediately captured by on-chain monitoring tools, raising market concerns about potential selling pressure. On the same trading day, custody giant BitGo went public on the NYSE with a valuation of approximately $2.1 billion, leading to a general strengthening of crypto-related stocks in the U.S. market, indicating a notable recovery in overall risk appetite, making the timing of this transfer even more sensitive. This article will explore three questions: Is this merely a normal liquidity management action by Mirana? Does it signal a phased reduction or even selling pressure? In the absence of an official response, we will analyze potential paths and market risks by combining on-chain data with historical VC behavior.
The Awakening of Three-Year Dormant Chips: What Does 13.65 Million MNT Mean?
● Key Facts Overview: The on-chain monitoring platform Onchain Lens shows that the wallet attributed to Mirana Ventures deposited 13.65 million MNT into Bybit, which is approximately $12.2 million based on the day's price. This batch of tokens has been marked as held for about three years, with almost no significant movement during that time. The transaction attribution comes from a third-party on-chain analysis agency (the brief notes the source as C), and there has been no public confirmation from the project party or related institutions, so readers should maintain a cautious attitude when interpreting this.
● Proportion of Circulating Supply and Potential Impact: Based on public market data, MNT's recent price has fluctuated roughly between $0.85 and $0.95, placing its market cap within the mid-to-large project tier. From a volume perspective, this transfer of 13.65 million tokens likely accounts for a few percentage points of the circulating supply, which is sufficient to alter the order book supply structure in the short term. If these tokens are concentrated in sell orders in a short time, it could amplify the daily volatility range, especially during periods of low liquidity, where slippage risk would be significantly magnified.
● Historical VC Transfers to Exchanges as Reference: In past cycles, multiple on-chain records of "large VC wallet transfers to exchanges" have often been associated with phased sell-offs, market-making adjustments, or internal settlements. For example, some leading public chains experienced multi-million dollar transfers during unlocking periods, with prices typically undergoing 5%-20% retracements or severe fluctuations in the short term. There are also a few cases that were merely market-making migrations or custody switches, but the market usually prices in potential selling pressure risks beforehand and reassesses based on subsequent transactions and announcements.
From VC to Exchange: The Subtle Relationship Between Mirana and Bybit
● Public Relations and Information Boundaries: According to a single public source cited in the brief, there is a historical cooperative relationship between Mirana Ventures and Bybit in terms of investment and liquidity business, thus making the funding path from "Mirana associated wallet → Bybit" logically reasonable. However, there is currently a lack of multi-source cross-verification, and neither Mirana nor Bybit has publicly commented on this transfer, so any extensions based on a "deeply bound relationship" should be viewed as hypotheses rather than conclusions.
● Various Possible Uses Breakdown: From the historical behavior patterns of VCs, this transfer to Bybit could correspond to multiple uses: firstly, market-making supplementation, injecting long-held tokens into the exchange to enhance market depth and tradability; secondly, over-the-counter settlement or hedging, completing value exchanges with other institutions through the exchange; thirdly, phased reduction or cash-out preparation, gradually releasing tokens when market liquidity is acceptable and risk appetite is warming. Different paths will exhibit distinctly different characteristics in subsequent on-chain flows and order book structures.
● Clear Missing Information and Interpretation Risks: Currently, there are several key information gaps regarding this event—the specific wallet address has not been disclosed by officials, and both Mirana Ventures and Bybit have not publicly responded. The scale and terms of historical cooperation remain to be verified. In the absence of these prerequisites, equating a large transfer simply to "the prelude to a comprehensive sell-off" or elevating it to a "deep structural interest signal" would be an overextension of interpretation. Investors should focus more on the evolution of subsequent on-chain and order book data rather than a single narrative.
Coinciding with BitGo's IPO: Coincidence or Strategic Timing?
● Macro and Industry Background on the Same Day: On January 22, the custody institution BitGo went public on the NYSE (ticker BTGO) with a valuation of approximately $2.1 billion, seen as an important valuation anchor for traditional capital markets regarding crypto infrastructure. On the same trading day, U.S. crypto-related stocks generally performed well, with MicroStrategy rising about 2.23%, and most other Bitcoin-exposed stocks also closing in the green, indicating a warming risk appetite and an increased willingness to allocate funds to crypto-related assets. In such an environment, the large movement of on-chain VC tokens is more easily interpreted as a proactive response to the new liquidity environment.
● VC Realization Logic During Risk Asset Recovery: Historically, VCs tend to rebalance highly appreciated token positions during periods of strengthening U.S. risk assets and rising crypto-related stocks, including phased sell-offs, hedging, or repositioning. On one hand, this meets LPs' dividend and liquidity needs, and on the other hand, it is a form of risk management across asset dimensions, transferring some high-volatility token gains to equity or cash positions to achieve "repricing" of the portfolio. From this perspective, Mirana pushing the dormant MNT tokens to the exchange at this time aligns with the broader direction of "utilizing the risk appetite recovery window for liquidity management."
● The Significance of the First Multi-Million Dollar VC Token Movement in 2026: According to reports from Jinse Finance, this is the first monitored case of a multi-million dollar VC token movement in 2026. Before the new year's market has fully priced in, the first large action by leading institutions often serves as a directional indicator: once interpreted by the market as a signal that the "exit window has opened," other institutions holding large token positions may evaluate whether to follow suit in adjusting their positions. Even if future facts prove it to be merely a liquidity migration, this event will be recorded on the timeline of "2026 VC token behavior," serving as an important reference sample for observing other large transfers in the future.
VC Token Loosening: Potential Impact on MNT Price and Liquidity
● Impact Simulation in a Full Sell Scenario: From public data, MNT's average daily trading volume is at the multi-million dollar level, and the order book has a certain depth during mainstream trading hours, but it is still limited compared to the $12.2 million volume. If we assume that this 13.65 million MNT is concentrated and sold at market price in a short time, the price slippage could quickly amplify, leading to a daily decline far exceeding the usual volatility, creating a "liquidity crunch" risk for short-term bulls and high-leverage positions. This is also a key reason why the market remains highly sensitive to VC tokens transferring to exchanges.
● Differentiated Paths for Partial Selling or Market-Making Uses: If Mirana only chooses to partially sell, gradually digesting tokens through limit orders, the direct impact on price would significantly ease, but the presence of ongoing medium to large sell orders in the order book could suppress short-term upward potential, creating a psychological expectation of an "upper cap on tokens"; conversely, if a larger proportion is used for market-making or structural migration, it could enhance depth and narrow spreads while providing a smoother channel for subsequent large funds to enter and exit. At this point, the key to market sentiment lies in whether actual transactions can be seen concentrated on the buy side rather than being passively absorbed by selling pressure.
● Emotional Case Comparison and Token Structure Determinants: On the same day in the market, the RALPH token experienced an approximately 80% plunge due to developer sell-offs, further amplifying investors' sensitivity to "project parties/VCs dumping." However, it is important to emphasize that RALPH is a small-scale project with a highly concentrated token distribution, and its fundamentals, depth, and investor structure differ significantly from MNT. MNT's token distribution is more dispersed, its trading pairs are more diverse, and it has more mature secondary market participants, making it difficult for a single VC action to directly replicate the extreme movements seen with RALPH. Project fundamentals and token structure are often more decisive in determining the transmission of selling pressure than a single large transfer itself.
The Start of VC Exits in 2026: Is This the Prelude to a New Cycle?
● Reviewing the VC Exit Rhythm of the Last Bull Market: In the last bull market, most VCs chose to exit in an orderly manner during the peak of token unlocks and price liquidity. Typical patterns include: transferring tokens to exchanges in batches weeks to months in advance, aligning with unlock announcements and market sentiment, gradually cashing out when prices are relatively firm; or locking in discounted exits through over-the-counter block trades. On-chain, there often appear multiple medium-sized transfers as a "test" before a more defined concentrated reduction period, a rhythm reflected in several leading projects.
● Assessing the Foreboding Significance of Mirana's Actions: Based on current information, Mirana's transfer of MNT can be seen as the first large sample of VC token management in the new year. Whether it will evolve into a precursor to a new round of exit windows depends on whether, in the coming weeks, other institutions holding large token positions exhibit synchronized increases in on-chain transfer frequency and push more multi-million dollar tokens to exchanges as resonance signals. If similar events occur densely, there would be reason to believe that institutions are preparing for a possible phased peak or wave high; conversely, it may appear more like structural adjustments by individual projects and institutions.
● Differences in Exit Paths for Equity and Tokens and Monitoring Points: Unlike traditional equity markets, which often require announcements, roadshows, and lock-up periods, the exit paths in the token market heavily rely on large on-chain transfers and exchange flows, and these actions often occur before any public disclosures or media reports. Therefore, monitoring large inflows and outflows from VC-marked wallets, unusual increases in exchange hot wallets, and changes in token concentration becomes a key indicator for sensing institutional exit intentions in advance. For investors, tracking such on-chain signals often provides a better opportunity to seize risk pricing than waiting for official statements.
Trading in Uncertainty: How to Interpret the Next Steps for Mirana and MNT
● Reorganizing Facts and Gaps: Currently confirmed facts include—the Mirana associated wallet transferred 13.65 million MNT to Bybit on January 22, 2026, amounting to approximately $12.2 million; this transfer is the first multi-million dollar VC token movement of the year; the overall macro and industry environment on the same day was warming. What remains unconfirmed includes: the true purpose of the transfer, the specific cooperation arrangements between Mirana and Bybit, and whether there are ongoing reduction plans. It must be emphasized that "transferring to an exchange ≠ inevitable sell-off," but in the pricing of high-volatility assets, such events are often initially priced in as "potential selling pressure," and expectations are adjusted based on subsequent behaviors.
● Response Strategies for Ordinary Investors and Professional Traders: For ordinary investors, it is more important to reduce the interference of information noise and focus on three dimensions—first, continuously track the subsequent on-chain flows of the wallet and related addresses; second, observe whether there are any abnormal increases in the order book depth, order structure, and short-term trading volume of MNT on Bybit; third, pay attention to whether the project party and Mirana release any clarifications, lock-up, or cooperation updates. For professional traders, under the premise of controllable risk, they can assess whether there are event-driven short-term arbitrage or hedging opportunities by combining order book data, funding rates, and cross-platform price differences, while strictly controlling leverage to avoid being "collaterally damaged" by extreme volatility.
● Outlook on Institutional Token Management Trends in 2026: If Mirana's action is just the starting point, and more VC wallets adjust their token positions throughout the first half of this year, we may look back at this MNT transfer as the beginning of a new round of institutional reallocation and exit cycle. Against the backdrop of evolving liquidity cycles and regulatory environments, institutions' answers to "how long to hold, how to exit, and at what pace to exit" are evolving from the rough realizations of the last bull market to more refined liquidity and risk management. For individual investors, incorporating "monitoring institutional token behavior" into their regular toolbox as early as possible may be more crucial than chasing emotional fluctuations afterward.
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