The cryptocurrency industry in 2026 will stand at a clear watershed: marked by the institutionalization of capital entry and the end of the traditional four-year halving cycle, the underlying logic of industry development is undergoing a fundamental shift. This chapter will integrate and analyze the 2026 outlook reports released by over a dozen mainstream institutions, including Messari, Grayscale, a16z, BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity, Coinbase, Galaxy, VanEck, and 21Shares. We find that, at the macro level, institutionalization, regulatory clarity, the integration of AI and Crypto technologies, the shift of value to the application layer, and stablecoins and RWA becoming core bridges constitute five irreversible consensus points that collectively drive the industry from "speculation and narrative-driven" to a structurally mature state defined by "cash flow, practicality, and compliance."

However, there are significant divergences regarding specific paths around technology routes, valuation trajectories, and commercialization rhythms. This "unity in divergence" points to a core idea: the cryptocurrency industry is accelerating its integration from a discrete market driven by speculation and narrative to a global financial infrastructure defined by cash flow, practicality, and compliance. Regulatory clarity will become the cornerstone of this unity, catalyzing trillions of traditional funds to flow through compliant channels such as stablecoins, RWA, and ETFs, while also driving the necessary and brutal cleansing and integration within sub-sectors like public chains, DATs, and privacy. Investors will no longer face simple bull and bear cycle judgments but will need to accurately capture segmented Alpha opportunities driven by the integration of AI technology, capital efficiency, and regulatory arbitrage under the consensus of structural growth.

1. Consensus and Divergence: The 2026 Landscape from an Institutional Perspective

Based on the 2026 outlook reports from institutions such as Messari, Grayscale, a16z, BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity, Coinbase, Galaxy, VanEck, and 21Shares, there is a strong consensus on macro trends in the industry, but profound divergences exist in micro implementation paths and market performance. This contradictory unity precisely characterizes the typical features of the industry's transformation period.

1.1 The Cornerstone of Unity: Five Core Consensus Points

1. The End of the Four-Year Cycle and the Beginning of the Institutional Era

Institutions represented by Bitwise, Fidelity, and Grayscale unanimously agree that the narrative of Bitcoin's "four-year halving cycle" has become ineffective. Grayscale explicitly states in its report "2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era": "The valuation surge in 2026 will mark the end of the four-year cycle theory," and anticipates that Bitcoin will reach a new historical high in the first half of 2026.

Fidelity Digital Assets notes in its 2026 outlook that Bitcoin's one-year realized volatility has dropped to a historical low of 42%, a phenomenon that historically often signals the arrival of new highs. Bitwise predicts that ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana supply, marking a complete shift in driving forces from the supply side (halving of mining output) to the demand side (sustained allocation by institutions like ETFs). This shift means that the crypto market is transitioning from cyclical fluctuations driven by retail sentiment to a "structural slow bull" dominated by the long-term asset allocation logic of pension funds, endowment funds, and sovereign wealth funds.

2. Stablecoins: From Crypto Tools to Global Payment Infrastructure

All institutions place stablecoins at the core of growth in 2026. According to on-chain data, the total transaction volume of stablecoins reached $33 trillion in 2025, with USDC accounting for about $18.3 trillion and USDT for about $13.3 trillion, while Visa's total transaction volume during the same period was $16.7 trillion. This means that stablecoin transaction volume is nearly double that of Visa and will further consolidate this position in 2026, directly challenging the traditional financial ACH system and becoming the "fundamental settlement layer" of the internet.

a16z emphasized in its outlook released at the end of 2025: "Stablecoins will completely transform from niche financial tools to the fundamental settlement layer of the internet." Under the regulatory framework of the GENIUS Act, which took effect on July 18, 2025, stablecoin issuers are required to hold 100% reserve dollars or short-term government bonds and conduct monthly public disclosures, laying a legal foundation for the large-scale application of compliant stablecoins in B2B payments and cross-border settlements.

Coinbase predicts that the market value of stablecoins will reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028, while both 21Shares and Galaxy expect it to surpass the $1 trillion mark in 2026. Galaxy further points out that stablecoin transaction volume will exceed that of the U.S. ACH system, becoming a true global payment infrastructure.

3. Regulatory Clarity as a Core Catalyst

The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. is just the starting point. This act was signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025, passing the Senate with a vote of 68-30 and the House with a vote of 308-122, establishing a federal regulatory framework for "payment stablecoins."

A more comprehensive market structure legislation, the CLARITY Act, passed the House on July 17, 2025, with a vote of 294-134 and was submitted to the Senate Banking Committee for review on September 18, 2025. A full Senate vote is expected to take place on January 15, 2026. This act divides regulatory authority over digital assets between the CFTC and SEC and provides a safe harbor for DeFi participants.

The market generally expects the CLARITY Act to make significant progress in 2026. Grayscale predicts that bipartisan market structure legislation will become U.S. law in 2026, seen as the most critical prerequisite for releasing institutional funds, clarifying asset classifications, and reducing legal uncertainties, with its importance far exceeding short-term price fluctuations. Bitwise explicitly states that the passage of the CLARITY Act will trigger new historical highs for Ethereum and Solana.

4. Deep Integration of AI and Crypto

Institutions like a16z, Coinbase, and Messari have highlighted the prospects of AI agents combining with the crypto economy. The consensus is that AI agents require permissionless payment and settlement networks, which will lead to a shift from KYC (Know Your Customer) to KYA (Know Your Agent).

Coinbase points out in its 2026 outlook: "AI × crypto: autonomous agent systems … x402 protocols enable settlement of high-frequency microtransactions," emphasizing that the x402 protocol will support the M2M micro-payment economy. Grayscale lists "the need for blockchain solutions for centralized AI" as one of the core themes for 2026, believing that blockchain can provide verifiable computation and data for AI. BlackRock anticipates that AI development will boost Bitcoin miners and views the integration of AI and crypto as a superpower driving capital-intensive transformations.

5. The Shift of Value Capture from "Fat Protocols" to "Fat Applications"

The early theory that "protocol layers capture most of the value" is widely regarded as outdated. Galaxy explicitly endorses the "Fat App Thesis" in its 26 predictions, stating that "economic value capture is shifting from protocols to applications," with L1 public chains embedding revenue-generating applications.

a16z emphasizes that applications like perpetual contracts, wallets, and DEXs will capture revenue, surpassing protocol layers. Coinbase proposes "Tokenomics 2.0," a token model linked to revenue, and the spread of application-specific chains to a "network of networks." The current consensus is that value will concentrate in the upper layers, directly generating cash flow, having user entry points, and brand effects (such as super applications, wallets, and prediction market platforms), while the underlying public chains gradually evolve into utility-like settlement layers.

1.2 Focus of Divergence: Sources of Alpha and Risk

Beneath the unified consensus, institutions exhibit significant divergences in specific judgments, and these points of divergence are potential sources of Alpha opportunities or major risks. The following outlines the opposing views of major institutions on five key issues:

1. Divergence in Bitcoin Price Trends

On one side, represented by Bitwise and Grayscale, there is a belief that Bitcoin will break traditional cycles and reach a new historical high in the first half of 2026. Bitwise predicts that ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new supply, providing strong demand support.

On the other side, represented by Galaxy and VanEck, there is a belief that 2026 will be a year of chaotic fluctuations. Galaxy's pricing through the options market indicates that the market expects Bitcoin to fluctuate within a wide range of $50,000 to $250,000, reflecting significant uncertainty. VanEck emphasizes that macroeconomic factors will dominate price trends.

The core divergence lies in whether the continued inflow of institutional funds can fully hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties and the profit-taking pressure from existing holders.

2. Divergence on the Future of Digital Asset Trusts (DATs)

Coinbase holds an optimistic view, believing that DATs will evolve into DATs 2.0 forms, actively capturing yields through staking, re-staking, and trading of block space, becoming professional on-chain asset management tools.

Galaxy, however, takes an extremely cautious stance, explicitly predicting that at least five DATs companies will go bankrupt or be acquired in 2026. Grayscale even dismisses DATs as "red herrings" (irrelevant distractions), believing they are not worth attention.

The core divergence lies in whether DATs' business model is a sustainable capital allocation tool or merely a product of financial leverage in a bull market.

3. Divergence on the Threat of Quantum Computing

Coinbase and Fireblocks view quantum computing as an urgent long-term threat, necessitating immediate migration to post-quantum cryptography. Pantera Capital even predicts a potential quantum panic in 2026, suggesting that even if the actual threat has not yet arrived, news of technological breakthroughs could trigger market volatility.

Grayscale, however, lists the quantum threat as a "red herring," believing it has no substantial impact on the market in 2026. Research from a16z and Fireblocks also indicates that truly threatening quantum computers (CRQC) may not emerge until after 2030.

The core divergence lies in differing judgments on the timeline of the threat and whether the market should price in "quantum risk" in advance.

4. Divergence on Ethereum's Positioning and Value

Optimistic views suggest that Ethereum remains the core battleground for institutional-level settlement layers and RWA. Fidelity anticipates that the Fusaka upgrade will optimize L1's value capture capabilities, while BlackRock explicitly states that Ethereum will become the sole settlement layer standard for stablecoins and digital liquidity.

Messari, on the other hand, offers sharp criticism, arguing that Ethereum is facing a serious identity crisis. Its value is being squeezed at both ends: the store of value function is occupied by Bitcoin, while application scenarios are absorbed by L2. Especially after the EIP-4844 upgrade, L2 fees are no longer sufficiently flowing back to the mainnet, leading Ethereum into an inflationary state, potentially becoming a settlement junkyard.

The core divergence lies in whether Ethereum can establish a new, sustainable economic and security model after a large-scale migration of mainnet activity to L2.

5. Divergence in Layer 2 Competitive Landscape

Optimists believe that the L2 ecosystem will thrive, with different L2s focusing on various vertical scenarios—such as Base concentrating on consumer applications and Arbitrum delving deep into the DeFi space—forming a specialized division of labor with multiple chains coexisting. 21Shares describes this trend as vertical differentiation.

Pessimists, however, predict a brutal consolidation. 21Shares explicitly forecasts in December 2025 that "most Ethereum L2s face the risk of collapse in 2026." Data from Galaxy and The Block shows that liquidity and developers are concentrating on a few leading projects, with the top three L2s accounting for 90% of transaction volume, of which Base alone exceeds 60%. Many small and medium L2s will become zombie chains.

The core divergence lies in whether the L2 track will lead to vertical differentiation with multiple chains coexisting or to a brutal consolidation where winners take all. These divergences will be validated by the market in 2026.

2. The Interaction of Divergence and Unity: Dynamic Evolution of Industry Restructuring

Divergence and unity are not static oppositions but dynamically interact on three levels, collectively driving the industry toward a more mature form.

2.1 Macro Consensus Drives Capital, Track Divergence Determines Allocation

A unified macro narrative has paved the way for the traditional world to enter the crypto space, creating unprecedented expectations for capital inflows. However, the specific flow of this massive capital will be determined by the internal divergences and competitive outcomes of various tracks.

For example, the consensus in the stablecoin sector as a payment infrastructure will attract significant capital, but how that capital is allocated between compliant interest-bearing stablecoins (such as USDC, which is expected to grow 75% to $77 billion in market value by 2025) and traditional giants (such as stablecoins issued by banks) remains a point of divergence. Bitwise predicts that stablecoins will be scapegoated for emerging market currency crises, hinting at geopolitical risks.

Similarly, the consensus on RWA attracts institutional funds—on-chain data shows that the total TVL of RWA reached approximately $20 billion in 2025 (excluding stablecoins), with tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds accounting for $8.99 billion (45%) and private credit between $2-6 billion—but whether funds will prioritize tokenized Treasury bonds (such as BlackRock's BUIDL fund with an AUM of $1.73 billion, accounting for 41.1% of the tokenized Treasury bond market) or riskier private credit, real estate, or clean energy remains uncertain.

2.2 Technological Evolution Bridges Divergence, Giving Rise to New Unified Standards

Current technological divergences may reach new unifications through market selection and evolution. For instance, in the AI×Crypto field, debates about the timeline for the realization of agent economies may quickly dissipate as the x402 protocol is adopted by mainstream standards like Google, making M2M payments a new unified infrastructure.

In the privacy sector, the route dispute between privacy coins and privacy features may also lead to a unified standard due to institutional demand for auditable privacy (such as Zcash's Viewing Keys). 21Shares predicts that 2026 will be a breakthrough year for privacy, becoming a key unlocking factor for enterprise Ethereum applications, making privacy a default component of financial applications rather than an independent asset.

2.3 Regional Strategy Differentiation Under a Unified Regulatory Framework

The global regulatory trend is moving toward clarity, but specific paths will show significant regional bifurcations. The U.S. is establishing a federal framework through the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts; China insists on strengthening virtual currency regulation while steadily developing a dual regulatory framework for the digital yuan; the EU has gained a first-mover advantage with the MiCA regulations; and other regions are also adopting differentiated strategies.

These regulatory environment divergences will lead to differences in market structure, product innovation, and capital hubs. For example, RWA and stablecoin issuance may cluster in different jurisdictions based on regulatory friendliness—the U.S. GENIUS Act requires issuers to operate under OCC regulation or state-level systems, while the EU's MiCA has a different framework.

3. Core Outlook for 2026 and Independent Research Judgments

Based on the interactive analysis of annual outlooks from various institutions, combined with on-chain data and changes in market structure, I make the following core outlook and independent judgments for 2026:

3.1 Outlook on Technological Evolution

• The Invisibility of Settlement Layers and Dominance of Application Layers

Blockchain technology itself will become further invisible, with user experience becoming the focal point of competition. Account abstraction (AA), intent-centric architecture, and chain abstraction will become standard configurations, significantly reducing friction in user interactions with complex underlying systems. 21Shares predicts that L2 will evolve toward a "streamlined and more resilient" direction in 2026, with smaller rollups becoming zombie chains; cases such as Kinto shutting down, Loopring wallet ceasing operations, and Blast's TVL dropping by 97% have already emerged in 2025.

• The Fusion Point of AI and Crypto Moves Forward

I believe that the core impact of AI on crypto in 2026 will not be the full-scale realization of a completely autonomous agent economy, but rather scenario-based implementation: AI-enhanced on-chain interaction interfaces (such as natural language execution of DeFi transactions) and AI-optimized infrastructure (such as dynamic gas pricing and security vulnerability monitoring). The x402 protocol will become the core foundation for AI agents' M2M payments, prioritizing implementation in lightweight scenarios. The underlying decentralized computing power and data networks (DePIN) will see substantial growth due to AI demand.

3.2 Outlook on Capital Flows

• Capital Will Shift from Narrative Speculation to Cash Flow Validation

"Fat applications" with clear fee capture mechanisms, positive cash flow, and real user growth will receive valuation premiums. On-chain data shows that in 2025, only Base L2 achieved a profit of $55 million, while most L2s incurred losses, validating the importance of cash flow. Venture capital will increasingly concentrate on a few projects with potential monopolistic capabilities—the top three L2s (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism) already account for 90% of transaction volume, with Base alone exceeding 60%.

• TriFi (Triangle Finance, DeFi + CeFi + TradFi) Becomes the Mainstream Paradigm

The boundaries between pure DeFi and pure TradFi are blurring. Traditional financial institutions will utilize public chains as efficient settlement and composability layers while retaining their advantages in regulation, custody, and fiat entry and exit. BlackRock, through the BUIDL fund, and JPMorgan, through JPM Coin and tokenized bonds, are already practicing this model. This will give rise to a new generation of compliant DeFi products and institutional-level services.

3.3 Outlook on Regulation and Market Structure

• The Probability of U.S. Market Structure Legislation Passing is Higher than Market Expectations

Although there are political games, considering the strengthening of industry lobbying power and bipartisan consensus on innovation competition (the GENIUS Act passed the Senate with a 68-30 vote, and the CLARITY Act passed the House with a 294-134 vote showing bipartisan support), the likelihood of a bill providing clear classification and regulatory pathways for digital assets passing in 2026 is high, which will become a key catalyst for triggering a new round of institutional FOMO.

• Regulatory Arbitrage Opportunity Window Narrows

Global regulatory collaboration will strengthen, particularly in anti-money laundering and stablecoin reserve audits. The GENIUS Act requires monthly public reserve disclosures and BSA (Bank Secrecy Act) compliance, while the EU's MiCA also reinforces transparency requirements. Pure regulatory arbitrage space will diminish, and long-term competitiveness will depend on innovation and operational efficiency under unified rules.

3.4 Independent Views on Segmented Tracks

This section provides a brief overview, and I will gradually elaborate in subsequent chapters.

• Bitcoin

I lean toward the optimistic view of breaking the cycle. Bitwise predicts that ETFs will purchase over 100% of the new Bitcoin supply, and Fidelity observes that volatility has dropped to a historical low of 42%. The allocation demand from sovereign nations, funds, and enterprises will form strong bottom support, causing its volatility to continue converging with traditional commodities. The price-driving logic will completely shift to global liquidity distribution.

• Ethereum and Solana

The public chain track will further converge toward Ethereum standards. As a leader in institutionalization and modularization, Ethereum must maintain its decentralized baseline while accommodating traditional assets and RWA scenarios to solidify its position as the global financial settlement layer. Solana is aligning with this through the Firedancer modularization and Alpenglow upgrade but still needs to address stability and centralization risks, completing its identity reconstruction from a "retail trading chain" to "institutional-level infrastructure." Both will focus on ecological and capital symbiosis, jointly driving blockchain into an era of application prosperity.

• Privacy

Compliant privacy infrastructure and optional anonymity (such as ZKP) will become mainstream in the industry, while programmable privacy technologies like FHE are at a critical validation stage from concept proof to commercialization. Privacy technology, as a moat of crypto-native technology, will integrate into financial and AI collaboration scenarios, becoming a necessary component for institutions to go on-chain, while purely anonymous routes will gradually marginalize. 2026 will be a breakthrough year for privacy, unlocking key enterprise Ethereum applications.

• Stablecoins and RWA

Stablecoins will evolve into global payment infrastructure, seizing cross-border settlement scenarios; RWA will focus on cash flow assets and tokenized Treasury bonds, jointly accommodating traditional funds and forming a dual engine for on-chain capital. It is predicted that the market value of RWA will reach $1-2 trillion to $10-15 trillion by 2030.

• CEX

Compliance and ecological quality determine ultimate value retention. Coinbase will become the benchmark for exchanges with high compliance and a comprehensive ecological layout, while Binance faces dual pressure tests of compliance and ecological quality. Other CEXs will seek differentiated breakthroughs by obtaining compliance licenses and delving into niche scenarios. Ultimately, a landscape will form with 1-2 comprehensive platforms and 3-5 vertical platforms. The industry is transitioning from wild growth to maturity.

• Memecoin

In the structurally market dominated by institutional capital in 2026, Memes will evolve from pure emotional speculation to a combination of emotion and ecological scenario empowerment. Purely emotional tokens will accelerate their clearance, and Meme coins tied to hot topics like AI may become core opportunities for retail investors, but the risks are extremely high.

• AI Agent

2026 will see the realization of scenario-based implementation rather than full-scale commercialization. The x402 protocol will become the core foundation for AI agents' M2M payments, prioritizing implementation in lightweight scenarios, while DePIN will experience substantial growth due to AI computing power and data demands. KYA will become a new bottleneck for financial services.

• Prediction Markets

These will become key information infrastructure. Their probability-based price discovery function will serve as an alternative to traditional public opinion polls and media in areas such as politics, sports, and culture. Compliant platforms with institutional backgrounds will dominate the market.

4. Core Risk Points

1. Regulatory Backsliding and Geopolitical Game Risks

The U.S. midterm elections (November 2026) may lead to changes in the political landscape, hindering or reversing pro-crypto legislative processes. More seriously, stablecoins could become embroiled in geopolitical games, serving as new tools for U.S. financial sanctions, or as Bitwise predicts, being scapegoated for currency crises in emerging markets, triggering a global regulatory crackdown.

2. Technological Integration and Systemic Risks

The deep integration of TradFi and Crypto (TriFi) also means a complication of risk transmission paths. Considering that Circle holds $77 billion in USDC reserves and Tether holds $187 billion in USDT reserves, both heavily invested in U.S. Treasury bonds, a reserve management error by a large compliant stablecoin issuer or a failure of a key cross-chain bridge or oracle could trigger a chain of on-chain and off-chain liquidations, causing systemic shocks. Cross-chain costs average $1.3 billion per year, with price spreads of 1-3%, highlighting interoperability weaknesses.

3. Structural Vulnerability Risks in Market

Although institutionalization has reduced volatility, the market may become more fragile. If a sharp deterioration in the macro economy leads to sustained large-scale capital outflows from ETFs, the lack of retail investors to absorb the sell-off could trigger a liquidity crisis steeper than in previous cycles. DATs' net asset value discounts and Galaxy's prediction of at least five companies going bankrupt or being acquired could exacerbate selling pressure.

4. Narrative Exhaustion and Growth Bottleneck Risks

If core narratives like AI×Crypto and RWA fall far short of market expectations in terms of actual implementation scale and speed in 2026, it could lead to a new round of capital withdrawal and valuation bubble bursts. For example, RWA token holders remain a tiny fraction compared to the total number of crypto users; if the AI Agent economy fails to break through the KYA identity bottleneck and regulatory uncertainties, it may remain in the conceptual stage. The industry will once again face the challenge of narrative vacuum.

5. The "Black Swan" Potential of Quantum Computing

While Grayscale and a16z believe that cryptography-related quantum computers (CRQC) are unlikely to appear before 2030, Pantera Capital predicts that a "quantum panic" may occur in 2026—where technological breakthroughs lead major Bitcoin holders to discuss contingency plans, even if the actual threat does not exist. NIST requires the abandonment of vulnerable algorithms (RSA, ECDSA) by 2030 and a complete ban by 2035, which could trigger market pricing risks in 2026.

Conclusion

The year 2026 will be a key year for the crypto industry, marked by profound internal differentiation under a unified consensus. We should move beyond the obsession with mere price fluctuations and focus on the structural opportunities shaped by the interplay of regulation, technology, and capital.

Core Views:

• Regulatory Clarity will unleash trillions in institutional capital through compliant channels like ETFs, stablecoins, and RWA.
• Stablecoin Infrastructure will reconstruct global payment rails.
• Value Shifting to Application Layers will drive brutal ecological consolidation.
• AI×Crypto Fusion will validate practicality through scenario-based implementation.
• Institutionalization Ends Four-Year Cycles, but introduces new macro drivers and structural vulnerabilities.

In the dawn of the institutional era, competitiveness will belong to those builders who can bridge divergences and construct sustainable practical value under unified rules. Investors need to accurately capture segmented Alpha opportunities driven by technological integration, cash flow validation, and regulatory arbitrage, while remaining vigilant against geopolitical, systemic risks, and narrative exhaustion gray rhinos.

Next, I will explore various segmented tracks in separate chapters.

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