On January 22, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, the cryptocurrency custody company BitGo confirmed an IPO issue price of $18 per share, higher than the previously disclosed guidance range of $15-17. It plans to issue approximately 11.8 million shares, corresponding to a fundraising level of about $200 million and a potential valuation of over $2 billion, which is still pending final confirmation. This is not only a numerical increase but also marks the first cryptocurrency-related company to go public in 2026, serving as a bellwether for the annual pricing framework in the custody and infrastructure sector. On one hand, the high pricing reflects institutional optimism; on the other hand, the total fundraising amount, valuation metrics, and even the listing pace still have room for adjustment. The intertwining of uncertainty and optimism makes this IPO a high-risk gamble at the start of the year for cryptocurrency infrastructure.
Top Price of $18: A Pricing Increase from $15 to $18
● Evolution of the Pricing Range: BitGo initially proposed an issue price range of $15-17 per share to the market. After the inquiry and book-building process, it ultimately locked in the top price of $18 on January 22, the date of the pricing disclosure. This upward adjustment from the upper end of the range is interpreted as better-than-expected performance in the order book during the roadshow phase, with the issuer willing to "eat the price" within regulatory limits, reflecting confidence in the capacity to absorb and subsequent secondary market performance.
● Signals of Institutional Demand: The comment that "the $18 pricing exceeds the expected range, indicating strong demand from institutional investors" became a core statement for the market's interpretation of the book-building situation. For a new stock in the cryptocurrency custody concept, in the context of existing macro risks and regulatory uncertainties, the willingness of institutions to act at the top price level indicates that they value the cash flow stability, licensing barriers, and compliance narratives compatible with traditional finance in the custody sector, rather than short-term emotional trading.
● Fundraising Scale and Pricing Strategy: Based on a rough calculation of 11.8 million shares × $18, BitGo's fundraising scale is approximately $200 million, which roughly aligns with the briefing's statement of "about $210 million." The potential valuation has been vaguely described by multiple parties as "over $2 billion." Investors are clearly paying for two types of assets: one is the predictable cash flow from the existing managed asset scale and fee rates of the custody business, and the other is the premium formed by scarce compliance licenses, regulatory friendliness, and the ability to connect with ETFs, brokerages, family offices, etc.
● Cautious Approach to Specific Numbers: Currently, the public information regarding the final total fundraising amount and the complete valuation range post-IPO remains in a "pending verification" state, with some sources citing each other and the metrics not fully unified. At this stage, what is more noteworthy than whether it is $200 million or $210 million is the certainty signal of the pricing increase from the $15-17 range to $18, indicating that the primary market is willing to provide a more aggressive anchor point for the valuation of the cryptocurrency custody sector.
The Infrastructure Demonstration Effect of the First Crypto IPO of 2026
● Spillover Effect of the Annual First Offering: As the first cryptocurrency-related company to go public in the U.S. in 2026, BitGo occupies the starting line of the narrative. Regardless of subsequent secondary market performance, this "first offering" label will spill over to a broader infrastructure sector, providing reference samples for wallet custody, clearing and settlement, compliance trading, and other sub-sectors, allowing both primary and secondary markets to calibrate previous valuation imaginations that were stuck at the PPT and M&A benchmarking levels with actual transaction prices.
● The Central Role of Custody in Institutional Entry: From the perspective of traditional institutions, custody is the "underlying switch" for all cryptocurrency asset allocation actions. From spot ETF managers to brokerage wealth management departments, and family offices to endowment funds, the ability to find a custodian that meets compliance requirements, has controllable risks, and is compatible with traditional finance directly determines whether they dare to enter the cryptocurrency market and to what scale. Platforms like BitGo undertake multiple functions such as asset custody, trading connection, settlement aggregation, and even compliance reporting, serving as a "safety net" for traditional institutions to connect with the on-chain world.
● Symbolic Significance of Compliance Path Verification: The viewpoint that "successful listing will validate the compliance path of cryptocurrency custody business" points to regulatory aspects rather than the stock price of a single company. A company whose main business is cryptocurrency custody that can pass the public market thresholds in information disclosure, audit standards, anti-money laundering, and compliance risk management will be seen as an official endorsement of the compatibility of the relevant business model and regulatory framework, thereby enhancing the weight of custody licenses and compliance capabilities in the industry valuation system.
● Potential Formation of an Infrastructure Listing "Tier": If BitGo's IPO progresses smoothly, the market will find it hard to ignore the price coordinates and regulatory sample effects it establishes. Other companies engaged in compliance custody, trading, clearing, and settlement services, whether in the U.S. or other major financial centers, will be more motivated to evaluate listing paths, enhancing their competitiveness through secondary market financing and equity liquidity. In the long run, this is expected to give rise to a tier of listed companies built around "cryptocurrency infrastructure," pricing the industry based on stock prices and valuations, reducing reliance on a single private placement round or M&A transactions as price anchors.
The Trillion-Dollar Bitcoin Liquidation Cliff: A Discrepancy Between Primary Optimism and Secondary Fragility
● Liquidation Risks on a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap: Almost simultaneously with BitGo's elevated IPO pricing, the price of Bitcoin is operating above the sensitive range of $89,000 to $91,000. Derivatives market data shows that there is a potential liquidation risk of about $1 billion accumulated near this range. If such a large leveraged position is triggered, it will amplify price volatility in a short time, creating a "cliff-like" pressure background on the entire cryptocurrency market sentiment.
● Emotional Scissors Between High Pricing and High Leverage: On one hand, BitGo's IPO pricing at $18 reflects that institutions are willing to pay a higher premium for custody and compliance infrastructure stories; on the other hand, the futures and perpetual contract markets have accumulated fragile long positions through high leverage. The primary market's optimism about "long-term cash flow + compliance licenses" is in clear discrepancy with the extreme speculation on short-term price fluctuations in the secondary derivatives market. This scissors gap itself is a mirror of the current structure of the cryptocurrency market.
● Chain Reaction of Bitcoin Pullback: If Bitcoin experiences a sharp pullback in the high price range, it could not only trigger the aforementioned approximately $1 billion liquidation cascade but also suppress the growth expectations of custody platforms' managed scales through asset price shrinkage. For a newly listed or preparing to list custody concept stock, this means that secondary performance is likely to be dragged down by macro conditions that do not fully synchronize with its fundamentals, leading to a phase mismatch of "business logic upward, stock price curve downward," testing investors' holding patience.
● Distinguishing Long-Term Business Models from Short-Term Volatility: In infrastructure companies like BitGo, the market needs to learn how to distinguish between "bullish long-cycle business models" and "caution against short-cycle price volatility." The value of custody lies in multi-cycle fee income and deep integration with traditional finance, which is not the same dimension of risk as the liquidation cascade in a Bitcoin market cycle; however, short-term stock prices, as carriers of sentiment, are difficult to completely detach from macro fluctuations. Therefore, research and pricing for such targets need to separate the high valuation of the IPO from the potential severe volatility in the secondary market.
The Frenzy of Space and the Setback of Saga: Funds Swinging Between Risk and Safety
● The Frenzy of Space's 8x Oversubscription: Beyond the BitGo IPO news, the public offering of the Solana ecosystem project Space has captured the topic center with an oversubscription rate of about 8 times, showing that the primary market's pursuit of "high-growth narratives + new public chain ecosystems" has not cooled down. Funds are betting on potential explosive power and high Beta here, willing to exchange extremely high subscription enthusiasm for possible future Token returns, investing in an option about new narratives, new traffic, and new wealth effects.
● The Reflexive Punishment from Saga's Hacking: In contrast to the popularity of Space, the recent negative event of the Saga project suffering a hacker attack reminds the market that there is still a very direct and rapid punishment mechanism for security incidents and technical failures. Whether it is the immediate reaction of token prices or the breakdown of community trust and partnerships, security failures can quickly destroy previously accumulated market expectations, becoming one of the biggest black swans for new public chains and application ecosystems.
● The Pull of High-Risk Narratives and Stable Custody Configurations: When the high oversubscription of Space, the setbacks of Saga, and the stable custody narrative of BitGo are placed on the same timeline, the asset allocation pull of funds becomes clear: some capital is willing to double down on high-risk, high-volatility growth projects to seek excess returns; while other capital begins to reassess those that can provide a "bottom layer" in terms of safety, compliance, and infrastructure, viewing companies like BitGo as structural chips to hedge against narrative breakdowns and security events.
● Repricing of Custody Premium Under Hacker and Regulatory Pressure: In the context of frequent hacker attacks and ongoing regulatory pressure, the value of compliant custody is being re-evaluated by the market. Each security incident prompts institutional funds to reflect: should they continue to scatter assets across various inadequately audited protocols, or should they migrate more to wallets and account systems managed by compliant custody institutions? Platforms like BitGo thus gain an additional safety and compliance premium, and this premium is one of the important foundations supporting their willingness to price at the top during the IPO.
From Maroo to BitGo: The Dual Convergence of Local Currency Anchoring and Custody Compliance
● Building the Maroo and Local Currency Anchoring Ecosystem: The Maroo project launched by the Korean crypto fund Hashed is positioned as a Layer 1 project focused on Korean won-denominated stable assets, representing the accelerated formation of a regional fiat currency anchoring ecosystem. Anchoring to local currencies like the won means that its target users and scenarios are closer to local regulatory and payment systems, reflecting that different jurisdictions are attempting to use local currencies as a bridge to connect traditional finance more closely with the on-chain world.
● Potential Synergy Between Local Currency Public Chains and Custody Services: For institutional funds truly entering this ecosystem, merely having local currency anchoring is not enough; they also need custody and infrastructure service providers that "understand local currency rules and cryptocurrency assets." Whether providing KYC/AML-friendly custody accounts for won-denominated assets or building secure on-chain access channels for local banks and payment institutions, it requires infrastructure participants like BitGo that have accumulated experience in compliance, technology, and risk control to form synergies between local currency public chains and global custody networks.
● Common Mainline: Building a Controllable and Trustworthy Underlayer for Mainstream Funds: From the Maroo focused on the won ecosystem to BitGo centered on compliant custody, the paths and tracks may seem different, but the shared mainline behind them is: to build an infrastructure layer that is "controllable, auditable, and understandable by traditional rules" for mainstream funds and regulatory frameworks. Whether the entry point is a local currency-denominated public chain or a global custody network, the ultimate goal is to facilitate a larger-scale migration of capital and assets between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency world under the premise of controllable risks.
● High pricing is setting a price for the entire compliance infrastructure: Therefore, BitGo's $18 high pricing has implications that extend beyond the company itself. The market is not only discounting the current cash flow of the custody business but is also paying for the overall blueprint surrounding "compliant cryptocurrency financial infrastructure." It places infrastructure companies like BitGo and local currency anchored public chains like Maroo on the same value coordinates, providing a preliminary price answer to the question of "who can truly attract mainstream funds."
High Jump or Long Run Start: Infrastructure Imagination After BitGo
BitGo carries a dual significance against the backdrop of its top pricing: on one hand, it is a high-risk gamble by the primary market on cryptocurrency custody and compliance infrastructure, betting on the long-term cash flow and licensing barriers of the custody business with a price of $18 that exceeds the original range; on the other hand, it has become a "compliance narrative anchor" that the industry urgently needs to find in an environment intertwined with regulatory pressure and security incidents, with hopes of opening up greater valuation space for the infrastructure sector. Two paths may unfold next: first, if macro conditions fluctuate and Bitcoin triggers large-scale liquidations, short-term volatility will be amplified, and BitGo will face significant price and emotional pressure on its first day of listing and for some time thereafter; second, if it can navigate this round of volatility and maintain steady progress in business and regulatory rhythm, BitGo has the opportunity to become a sample for the subsequent wave of infrastructure listings, providing pricing references for different forms of compliance infrastructure such as clearing, custody, trading, and local currency public chains. The longer-term competition lies in how regulatory attitudes gradually refine in practice, how institutional funds reallocate weights between high-risk narratives and stable infrastructures, and how the new generation of public chains and local currency-denominated ecosystems interweave with compliant custody—these factors will collectively reshape the power and profit distribution landscape of the cryptocurrency market, and BitGo's high jump will be seen as an early footnote in this reconstruction process.
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