Greenland Tariff Trading Summary
The accuracy of the market analysis brought about by this tariff is quite high. Of course, the only thing I didn't expect was that Trump, who was adamant about not giving in on Greenland, would back down after just three days. I thought we would have to wait for the Supreme Court to provide a ruling on the IEEPA or for an extreme market situation before Trump would concede.
Unexpectedly, after three days, Trump admitted defeat. On the positive side, with Trump's concession, a market rebound is inevitable. The U.S. stock market should be able to return to the levels seen before the Greenland situation. As for Bitcoin, it's hard to say right now, but it shouldn't be too difficult to get back above $90,000.
However, as I have explained, the key point is whether the Greenland tariff will end or escalate further. If it ends, the market will rebound; if it escalates, the market will decline. If there is no movement, the market will oscillate. All three scenarios occurred within those three days.
The downside is that from now on, anything Trump says will be met with skepticism, making it difficult for the market to directly judge whether he will strictly adhere to his statements. This is also why we saw the TACO situation arise. If you calculate it, since Trump came to power, almost all hardline tariff issues have ended with a TACO, which may not be a good thing for Trump's approval ratings.
Looking back at this situation, it is very direct and simple: the panic in the market was caused by Trump's tariffs on Greenland, and when Trump abandoned the Greenland tariffs, the market naturally rebounded. This reflects the impact of macroeconomic and political factors on risk markets, making it a rare high-certainty trade.
Since I don't plan to trade contracts recently, I used spot trading to validate this viewpoint. I didn't buy in at lower prices because I didn't know how this tariff war would conclude. Instead, when I heard Kitty @CatoKt4 share this information, I directly bought in. Kitty and I saw this information relatively early, but within less than ten minutes, BTC surged to $90,000.
The subsequent market continued along the path of Trump's tariffs (IEEPA) and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy.
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