📌 Event Review

Recently, against the backdrop of widespread turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, ETH has experienced significant volatility. Since the market opened today, the price of ETH has dropped from around $3000 to nearly $2900, with trading volume surging dramatically, indicating signs of panic selling in the market. Both institutions and retail investors are adjusting their positions, leading to an overall cautious sentiment.

📅 Timeline

• 00:00: The market opens, with ETH hovering in the $3001–$3004 range. At this time, uncertainties in global trade policies and news of geopolitical disputes begin to emerge.
• 00:00–00:41: Monitoring data shows that within 41 minutes, the price of ETH plummeted from $3004 to $2907, a drop of about 3.22%, reflecting the rapid spread of panic in the market.
• 00:00–00:45: Another data source indicates that the price of ETH fell from $3001 to $2884, with a cumulative drop of up to 3.91%, breaching key support levels.
• 00:44: Breaking news confirms that the price of ETH has fallen below the $2900 mark, further intensifying technical selling in the market.
• 01:05: The latest data shows that the price of ETH has slightly stabilized but remains around $2896.88.

💡 Reason Analysis

The sharp decline in ETH is primarily driven by the following two factors:

• External Policy and Geopolitical Uncertainty
  Recent announcements by Trump and government departments regarding a series of tariffs and trade measures (such as tariffs on non-domestic chips, certain European goods, and disputes related to Greenland) have further exacerbated global trade risks. Investors, seeking to avoid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks, have turned to safe-haven assets, leading to a significant withdrawal of funds from risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market not being spared.

• Sudden Market Sentiment Shift and Technical Fund Flow Changes
  Stimulated by macro negative news, market sentiment has rapidly deteriorated. Technical indicators triggered panic selling: large orders quickly broke through key support levels, with trading volume surging (increasing by 218.37% in a short period), leading to further price declines. A large amount of capital was forced to close positions at high levels, creating a chain reaction that intensified market volatility.

📊 Technical Analysis (Based on Binance USDT Perpetual Contract 45-Minute K-Line Data)

Using 45-minute cycle ETH/USDT data, we observe the following key technical indicator changes:

• Moving Average System Cross

• EMA5 has crossed below EMA10, forming a death cross, suggesting that the downtrend may intensify in the short term.

• The price is below the EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 moving averages, showing a bearish arrangement, indicating that the overall trend remains bearish.

• Bollinger Bands and Oversold Signals

• The price of ETH has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, with the %B indicator dropping below 0.0, indicating that the market is in an oversold state.

• OBV has turned negative and crossed below its moving average, confirming an increase in selling pressure, indicating a severe outflow of funds.

• Surge in Trading Volume

• A dramatic increase in trading volume has been observed in the current cycle, with trading volume significantly exceeding the average level of the recent 10 cycles.

• This phenomenon of trading volume declining in sync with price further confirms that panic selling is continuing to intensify.

🔮 Market Outlook

In the short term, ETH still faces significant downward pressure. The uncertainty of external policies is unlikely to dissipate soon, and some technical indicators suggest that the market may already be in an oversold state. Therefore, the following points are worth noting:

• Technical Support and Risk Areas
  The current price is near key moving averages and the lower Bollinger Band. If effective support can be formed in this area, it may attract some buying interest, helping to stabilize the price. However, if the support is weak, the risk of further declines increases.

• Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Policy Dynamics
  As the series of high tariffs and trade measures proposed by Trump and related departments continue to unfold, short-term risk-averse sentiment will still dominate the market. Once positive external news is released or policy directions become clearer, rebound signals may appear. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor global trade policies and geopolitical dynamics.

• Fund Flow and Technical Rebound
  Although panic selling has led to a surge in trading volume recently, medium to long-term funds are expected to buy on dips after significant sell-offs. Observing signs of OBV stabilization and improvements in the bullish arrangement of moving averages will help in assessing the formation of a market bottom.

Overall, the current ETH market is in a state of extreme volatility and panic. Investors should remain cautious, closely monitor key technical support levels, and pay attention to macro policy trends. While waiting for external risks to ease, buying on dips may become an operational strategy for some medium to long-term funds, but short-term risks should not be underestimated.

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