During this week's Davos Forum, U.S. President Trump made unusually optimistic remarks about U.S. inflation and economic growth in public, with a set of media figures stating “1.5% core inflation + 5.4% growth rate in Q4 2025” quickly spreading in the finance and crypto communities. In contrast, traditional institutions represented by the Bank of Italy and the IMF continue to emphasize that the monetary system needs to be anchored by central banks and commercial banks, maintaining a more cautious tone regarding growth prospects. In this tug-of-war of macro narratives, Celo, which is at a critical juncture of organizational restructuring and token economy upgrade expectations, has been thrust into the discussion of “who can become the future currency anchor.”
Davos Optimistic Declaration: Political Rhetoric of Inflation Victory and High Growth
● Core content of the optimistic statement: In his remarks at Davos, Trump described the U.S. economy as having “overcome inflation and about to return to a high growth trajectory,” with an overall tone leaning towards a celebratory narrative, emphasizing that the policy mix has already “taken effect” and suggesting that the U.S. economy will maintain strong expansion in the coming years. This rhetoric aims to shape the image that “the inflation problem has been solved, and growth dividends are about to be released,” laying the groundwork for subsequent policy space and voter confidence.
● Media figures of 1.5% and 5.4%: Several Chinese media outlets interpreting this statement provided figures of core inflation rate around 1.5% and Q4 2025 economic growth rate forecast of 5.4%, disseminating them alongside headlines like “overcoming inflation and welcoming high growth.” These figures resemble more of a “整理口径” (organized figures) by the media on official and market expectations rather than precise policy targets, and readers should be aware that these are paraphrased data rather than rigorous parameters from official statistics.
● IMF's narrative of “doubling growth”: Alongside the aforementioned media figures, there was also the claim that “the IMF predicts the growth rate will be double,” further amplifying the sense of the U.S.'s relative growth advantage globally. Since the briefing did not provide specific predicted values from the IMF, this “doubling” remains more at the political narrative level, used to construct a strong discourse of “the U.S. leading globally, with no macro concerns,” rather than being fine data inputs that can be directly incorporated into economic models.
Collision of Reality and Narrative: The Distance Between Wall Street and Policy Rhetoric
● Historical role and misalignment of Davos: As a venue for the periodic gathering of global elites, the Davos Forum has long been viewed as a window for observing policy and capital trends, but historical experience also shows that the optimistic blueprints presented by political figures here often lag behind or misalign with subsequent economic realities. On one hand, this is a stage for policy and capital, where narratives need to sufficiently boost confidence; on the other hand, the real economic cycle is constrained by multiple factors such as productivity, debt structure, and geopolitical risks, making it difficult to fully comply with the optimistic emotions on stage.
● Conservative growth expectations from institutions like the IMF: Compared to Trump’s optimism, the IMF and mainstream international institutions remain relatively conservative in their mid-term growth assessments for the U.S., emphasizing the sustainability of debt against a backdrop of high interest rates and the risks of slowing external demand. The widely cited “IMF predicts growth will be double” is itself a media paraphrase of a ratio concept, while the original reports from the institutions often come with multiple scenario assumptions and warnings of downside risks, creating a clear tension with the political setting that singularly emphasizes the “high growth story.”
● Asset allocation sentiment under the high growth story: For Wall Street and global asset management, the narrative of “high growth + controlled inflation,” if deemed credible, would logically support a higher tolerance for risk assets, including the high valuations of U.S. stocks and a rebound in risk appetite for crypto assets. However, if institutions maintain a cautious stance on growth expectations internally, a situation may arise where there is positive rhetoric but conservative positioning: verbally not denying an optimistic outlook, but in actual allocations leaning towards defense, choosing structured and selective participation in crypto assets rather than a full-on offensive.
Who Will Anchor the Monetary System: Central Banks Cooling Down on Crypto “Currency Narratives”
● The anchoring role of central bank money and commercial bank money: Fabio Panetta, a member of the Bank of Italy, clearly stated, “Commercial bank money and central bank money will continue to serve as the core anchoring forces of the monetary system.” This statement reaffirms that regardless of how technology evolves, the ultimate clearing and credit endorsement of the modern monetary system will still revolve around the central bank's balance sheet and the regulated banking system, rather than being easily replaced by any on-chain tokens or new settlement vehicles.
● Official positioning of on-chain assets as “supplementary”: Within this framework, the Bank of Italy views on-chain accounting assets as supplementary tools to the existing system, rather than parallel sovereign currencies. Considerations behind this include: maintaining the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, preventing fragmentation of the payment system, ensuring financial stability, and the enforceability of anti-money laundering and capital flow regulations. In other words, even while acknowledging the efficiency and inclusivity advantages of technological innovation, central banks remain cautious about allowing “on-chain assets” to be misinterpreted by the public as fully replacing traditional currency anchors.
● Hedging against the imagination of “crypto replacing fiat currency anchors”: This type of central bank narrative constitutes a systematic hedge against the popular grand story in the crypto market that “on-chain assets will eventually replace fiat currency anchors.” On one hand, it compresses the narrative space for “de-sovereignized currency” by continuously reaffirming that the “anchoring power” lies with central banks; on the other hand, it also forces crypto projects to shift from “replacement anchors” to “service anchors” and “supplementary anchors” when designing token economies and application scenarios, rethinking their relationship boundaries with fiat currency systems.
Celo's Consolidation Front: From cLabs to a Unified Core Organization
● Integration of the foundation and cLabs into a unified core contributor: In this macro context, the Celo Foundation and cLabs announced a restructuring, consolidating existing decentralized functions into a single core contributor organization, becoming the leading execution entity of the Celo ecosystem. Compared to the traditional loose structure of “foundation + development company,” this adjustment means that resources, roadmap planning, and external communication will be more centralized, helping to form a clearer project responsibility center and strategic intent.
● Urgency to “accelerate the delivery around 2026”: Celo officials also signaled plans to “accelerate the delivery progress of the Celo platform around 2026,” compressing the originally more decentralized and gradual roadmap into a more focused time window. Although specific milestones and parameter details have not been fully disclosed, this publicly expressed acceleration posture itself conveys a sense of urgency to the market that “the window is limited, and key infrastructure and protocol upgrades need to be completed before the next cycle.”
● Efficiency of unified organization and regulatory, institutional cooperation: In an era where compliance and institutionalization have become mainstream narratives, a centralized core organization is more likely to interface with regulatory bodies, large payment partners, and institutional investors. On one hand, a shortened decision-making chain can accelerate responses to policy dynamics and technological trends; on the other hand, at the narrative level, it also facilitates telling a unified story about “compliance, sustainability, and real-world applications” to the outside world, preemptively positioning for the next round of macro optimism or monetary reform discussions.
Token Economy Upgrade Imminent: Intersection of On-Chain Narratives and Real Anchors
● Upgrade expectations and value capture mechanisms: The market widely expects that Celo will soon promote a round of token economics upgrades, making adjustments around core elements such as fee capture, incentive mechanisms, and governance weights. Although precise timelines and parameter details have not yet been disclosed, it can be confirmed that the core goal of these adjustments is to tighten the relationship between tokens and actual network usage, governance participation, and ecological growth, thereby enhancing value capture efficiency, rather than remaining at the symbolic design of “telling stories without grounding them.”
● Telling Celo's currency story under the “high growth + broad monetary” narrative: If Trump-style “high growth + potential broad monetary” political narratives continue to spread globally, public chains like Celo that focus on payment and financial inclusion have the opportunity to bind their token economy with the narrative of “next-generation digital payment infrastructure.” The key lies in how to explain that Celo tokens can become an intermediary vehicle connecting fiat currency inflows, on-chain settlements, and enhanced cross-border payment efficiency, without challenging the anchoring power of central banks.
● “Supplementary” space in payment and real application scenarios: Celo has always emphasized mobile payments, real-world applications, and financial access in developing countries. In the central bank's narrative, such on-chain networks are more easily categorized as “supplementary tools” rather than “alternative currencies.” For Celo, this actually provides an operable strategic space: by collaborating with fiat currency systems and local banks, and connecting compliant payment channels, it positions itself as a technical layer that enhances the efficiency and accessibility of fiat currency usage, finding sustainable narratives and revenue models under the central bank's “core anchor.”
Two Storylines Converge: The Anchor Struggle Between Macro Optimism and On-Chain Restructuring
In this cross-level narrative confrontation, Trump's optimistic expectations, the central bank's cautious stance, and Celo's organizational restructuring all revolve around one keyword: anchor. The former attempts to construct the idea that “the U.S. economy itself is the ultimate anchor for global assets” through the figures of 1.5% core inflation and 5.4% growth forecast; the central bank continuously reaffirms that the true monetary anchor remains in the hands of fiat currencies and the banking system; while Celo, through unified organization and advancing token economy upgrades, seeks to carve out a place for “payment and credit anchors in the digital age” at the technical and application levels.
In the future, crypto projects will find it difficult to solely rely on “challenging central banks and replacing fiat currency anchors” as their core selling point. Instead, they will need to seek coexistence between central bank anchors and market anchors—accepting the central bank's dominant position in ultimate clearing and credit while creating new value anchor points in dimensions such as payment efficiency, asset fragmentation management, and cross-border liquidity. This means that project narratives must shift from being confrontational “old order terminators” to collaborative “next-generation infrastructure providers.”
Once there is a significant deviation between actual economic performance and current optimistic commitments—whether growth falls short of expectations or inflation rises again—the market story built on “high growth, high risk appetite” will face reevaluation. For projects like Celo that heavily rely on narrative and structural upgrades, the risk lies in: a weakening macro environment suppressing risk appetite and capital inflows; but opportunities also exist: in a context where traditional assets are under pressure and anxieties about the monetary system are increasing, those projects that have completed organizational integration, token economy optimization, and compliance alignment are more likely to be seen as important nodes “bridging old anchors and new anchors,” thus gaining an advantage in the next narrative switch.
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